And Then What?

This piece is an analysis of a David Roberts article in Vox  from last Tuesday which is itself an analysis of a piece from the Niskanen Center’s Jerry Taylor, “Whither Never Trump?

Roberts addresses the concept of “Never Trump Republicans” (whom he calls NTRs) who clearly do not have influence with the Republican Party in operation but are still there as free agents in the media and political culture. The question is what they’re supposed to do. Roberts brings up Taylor’s article, because Taylor concludes that launching a competitive third party is that much harder than “(scrubbing) the GOP clean of the toxins now surging through its base.” Roberts instead proposes a “pretty obvious” solution: NTRs should vote Democrat. “There are, for all intents and purposes, two parties contending in the American system. If you believe one of them is an existential threat to that system … you should vote for the other one. Because one of them is going to win.”

The obvious point here is that there are no NeverTrump conservatives. There are conservatives (meaning, Trump cultists) and NeverTrumpers (meaning, everybody else). But that NeverTrump group includes libertarians, mainstream liberals, “progressives” who thought Hillary Clinton was problematic or not leftist enough, and a few folks who would have been deemed conservative in the not-too-distant past before “conservatism” meant only blind loyalty to Donald Trump and his Know-Nothing psychology.

That in itself ought to reveal the problem with the argument: You can’t get all of those people into the same party. In the final analysis, Hillary Clinton’s loss in 2016 is a question of whether you can even get liberals and progressives into the same party.

The other issue with Roberts’ logic- that accepting one of the two parties as an “existential threat” necessarily means voting for the other one in a two-party system- is that it was no less valid in 2016. We didn’t know then what Trump would be like in office, but everybody already knew that Donald Trump was a loathsome, dysfunctional personality with no relevant experience and destructive ideas, and yet he got just enough people in just the right states to get the Electoral College. Now, the anti-charismatic Hillary Clinton is not on the ballot for the midterms and will not be on the ballot in 2020 (we only hope), and Republicans in Congress might have pissed off enough people to overcome right-wing loyalties to that party or hatred of liberals. Still, if your best case for voting Democratic is “the other party is like Satan, only racist”, well, we already knew that, and it still was not enough in itself. And then what?

This means that while non-leftists might need to sit out or vote for the Democrats this time, it does not address the long-term issue. Taylor writes: “Even if self-imposed exile were a comfortable option, it’s probably a self-defeating one for those alarmed about the direction of the Republican Party. Granted, a steady string of decisive electoral defeats would eventually force the GOP to change course or die (the fate of the party in California). But despite what some bullish progressives are beginning to think, a generation-long series of electoral beatings is unlikely. Donald Trump may lose in 2020, but if the party continues along its current path, he would simply be replaced by new and better “Trumps” on the horizon. If past is prologue (and we see no signs that it will be otherwise), Democratic overreach will trigger a Republican resurgence. Only two years after Richard Nixon resigned, after all, the GOP nearly held the White House in an electoral cliffhanger.” (This point by Taylor is conspicuously absent from Roberts’ analysis.)

Roberts also might not have considered that the Republicans he’s asking to just give up and vote Democratic could already be doing so, sotto voce. Several of them, notably Paul Ryan, have announced they’re not even running this year. That does not guarantee a Democratic victory for those seats, but the main thing that guarantees a Republican victory is an incumbent candidate. As for the various political columnists, “real” conservatives already think that anybody who isn’t with the cult is The Enemy, so right-wing pundits have already in effect declared their allegiance by taking pundit jobs with CNN (formerly nicknamed the Clinton News Network) and MSNBC (which is the Clinton News Network).

But Roberts moves on towards the conclusion of his thesis: “America’s dwindling white Protestant majority, facing off against an unwieldy coalition of challengers, increasingly driven to ‘authoritarian, blood and soil politics’ in defense of privilege. … That battle must play itself out. The GOP will only change when white-grievance politics is consistently rejected at the ballot box, as it is in California. Only if that happens will the party be open to change. And if the party wants to change, it will seek reformers willing to return home.

That battle could take years, even decades. But by Taylor’s own reckoning, if the blood-and-soil contingent wins, American democracy could be lost. There is only one alternative to that outcome: the other side winning. Like it or not, there are only two parties that matter in the US. For a Trumpist GOP to lose, the Democratic Party must win. ‘Tis math. So Taylor should suck it up and vote for Democrats — not because he likes their policies, but because the alternative is an existential threat.”

Wrong.

This is exactly the wrong tack to take with people who couldn’t stand your party even when Republicans were sane. For a Democratic partisan to look at the current situation and say that the only solution is to vote for the party that he likes is a bit… convenient.

What isn’t being considered is that perhaps the Democratic Party is the less ugly side of the existential threat. I have said this to liberals many times already, and I’m gonna keep saying it til they finally listen: The problem is that your candidates suck and nobody likes them, including a lot of people on the Left. We can see how awful Republicans are. And in the last election Democrats made the stakes very clear. And they still couldn’t get enough people to vote for them in the right states. Which should have only brought home the point that since the start of the Obama Administration, Democrats lost a record number of state and Congressional races where the Electoral College was not a factor. You’ve established that the Republicans are an existential threat, Democrats. And you lost anyway. And then what?

Blame the rest of the country for not listening to you instead of the other way around?

Yeah, that makes sense.

In dealing with Republican “conservatives”, it has become painfully clear to me that the truth will not penetrate some people’s skulls even if you wrapped it in barbed wire and called it Lucille. But it’s also become clear that even the superficially reasonable liberals aren’t capable of learning from experience. Telling the rest of us to “suck it up” and be good little robots is exactly why the Democrats are not able to take advantage of Republicans’ self-created hell, even if (especially if) everyone already knows that there are only two parties that are worth voting for. But what if neither is worth voting for and the best you can offer is not being an existential threat?

Then what?

The fact that the two-party system was broken even before Trump showed up, and will remain so after he’s gone, is why voting for Democrats or getting rid of Trump isn’t nearly enough (which is a point at the heart of another Vox article from last Monday).

As much as I rag on Roberts, he’s only half wrong. Which is to say he’s half right. But so is Taylor. Roberts is correct to say that in the short term, this broken system can only correct by tilting back towards the Democrats. He is incorrect to imply that that will be enough in the long term (or that the long term doesn’t matter). That is because Taylor is right when he says you cannot depend on the rest of the country to stay with the Democrats for anything but the most imperative reasons (and in the last election, not even then). But Taylor is wrong to say that the vehicle of opposition must be the Republican Party.

As I said last time, anybody who wants something besides the Democratic Party either needs to invest in the Libertarian Party, invest in a whole new right-wing party, or somehow get the Republicans to pull out of the Abyss. Well, we already have a Libertarian Party, and its organization, however small, is still greater than a party that has to be created out of whole cloth. As for the Republicans, you wouldn’t even have a Libertarian Party if people like me thought that the Republicans could be saved. We tried reforming it from within. Gary Johnson tried. Charlie Sykes tried. Jeff Flake tried. They don’t want us. And the various people who don’t like the Democrats but are getting more and more offended by the Party of Trump are asking themselves whether it’s still worth voting for. Just as 2016 was not as much a case of Trump winning as Clinton losing, Democratic coups in states like Alabama and Pennsylvania add up to a growing case of Trump fatigue. And Trump gets as far as he does because he’s actually less repellent to the average voter than congressional Republicans. Support for Republicans among those under 30 is lower than it’s ever been. How are we supposed to claim that this is the Party of Lincoln when they would rather be the Party of Trump? Exactly how damaged and blasted is the party supposed to get before they finally conclude that neo-Confederate authoritarianism won’t pay off? And will they be in any better shape than the Libertarians by that point? The Republican Party is already shrinking. We really ought to let it die.

It can’t die, of course, because we’re effectively allowed only two parties. Someone is always going to prop up this zombie, no matter how many brains it eats, because without the Republicans, we’ll only get to vote for Democrats.

For that to be the long-term solution, the liberal apologists proposing it must assume that the rest of the country will accept the implication that “the only rational choice” is the only choice that they deserve to have. In a democracy.

It might just be the case that the rest of the country will not accept that proposition.

And then what?

More Thoughts On Taxation

“Uncle Sam, I want to know what you doing with my fucking tax money.”

-Cardi B

Last week of course was Tax Day, and I made the mistake of getting into another political discussion on Facebook. I posted one of those memes that quoted on top, “Taxes are the price we pay for a civilized society” and at the bottom it said: “WRONG – Taxes are the price we pay to avoid getting kidnapped by government.”

So one of my liberal friends responded, “No- taxes are the price we pay for a civilized society.”

And I responded with two words: “Or else.”

As I’d said last April 15th, I can’t agree with the premise that “taxation is theft,” but I get the logic behind it. It makes more sense than saying “paying taxes is patriotic.” Patriotism has nothing to do with it. Resident aliens have to pay federal taxes without being American patriots, and everybody has to pay local sales taxes. As for taxes creating a civilized society, clearly that’s a matter of opinion. What is unquestionably true is that we have never been able to fund a government through purely voluntary contributions, and so for government to exist and do those things that we deem necessary, it has to use law enforcement to get revenue. The main difference between private force and government force is the public’s assumption of government legitimacy. That is the only thing that makes taxation not theft.

If we acknowledge a need for government, that does not mean we all agree that that necessity makes everything government does a necessity. Was the Transportation Security Agency absolutely necessary to our existence before 9/11? And is it actually doing anything productive now?

There is a difference between supporting the government because it is legitimate and treating it as legitimate simply because it IS the government.

On this score, liberals broadly assume that the government is justified in itself, and therefore its actions are assumed to have necessary purpose, and if it acts egregiously, that only proves that The Right People need to be in charge of an ever-expanding system, not that the system has exceeded its justifications.

By contrast, if libertarians act as though taxation is theft, or government is inherently wrong, they are acting on the classical-liberal assumption that government is not infinitely justified in its actions, that it is necessary insofar as it is an improvement on the “state of nature” or rule by the local gang, and that when there is no distinction between the rule of law and rule by force, government loses its necessary claim to superiority over other armed groups.

The problem is that the current state of affairs is neither a case of liberals trying to make government do good things nor right-libertarians trying to impose limits on government. We currently have Republicans in power, and while they have in the past embraced both a Hamiltonian approach to big government and a libertarian sympathy to “small government” and business-friendly law enforcement, what we are seeing from the current Administration is the brazen declaration of conservatism as nothing better than the use of big government for the material benefit of those already in power.

The head of the Environmental Protection Agency, Scott Pruitt, is used by critics as the go-to example of this psychology, for good reason. Among other things, Pruitt used his position to charge the government for repeated travel expenses including a four-day trip to Morocco, ostensibly to promote gas exports when that is not in the purview of the EPA. He is even more famous for charging the government to fly first-class on most of these trips, and for creating a detail of security guards that previous EPA heads did not consider necessary. (In his defense, Pruitt needs to travel separately from the common folk because he’s intensely unpopular.)  More recently, the Washington Post reported that Pruitt charged $25,000 to have a secured phone service or “Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility” built in his office. The article says, “according to former agency employees, the EPA has long maintained a SCIF on a separate floor from the administrator’s office, where officials with proper clearances can go to share information classified as secret. The agency did not specify what aspects of that facility were outdated, or whether the unit inside Pruitt’s office would meet the physical and technical specifications a SCIF generally is required to have. ”

Your tax dollars at work, liberals.

Not only that, while Pruitt might even exceed his boss’ level of taxpayer-funded decadence, Pruitt as administrator is a very typical example of a Trump appointee maintaining the agency that he was appointed to while serving the opposite of its purpose. Both Pruitt and Energy Secretary Rick Perry have used their positions to promote the coal industry and other polluters. Perry of course, became famous in 2011 for a presidential candidates’ debate in which he had promised to eliminate three federal agencies including the Department of Energy, except he couldn’t remember the name of that Department.

Now, liberals might consider the conservative-libertarian drive to kill federal agencies to be counterproductive or even crazy. But an Energy Department that did not exist would not be acting as a souped-up Chamber of Commerce and doing so on the public dime and with government authority.

This is not simply a case of reducing the scope (or budget) of a regulatory agency, but preserving its existence (against libertarian ideology) in order to enact policy to the benefit of private groups. Thus the premises of liberal regulatory government are turned against themselves in order to make government actively benefit the people who are supposed to be regulated.

Critics of government, both liberals and libertarians, have used the terms “rent-seeking” and “regulatory capture” to describe how elites turn government’s regulatory power to their benefit, but the modern Republican Party goes far beyond this. Regulatory capture is redundant when you can just BE the government.

Moreover, this is not justified in terms of any free-market ideology, including Randian selfishness. The so-called Captains of Industry are the people most dependent on government for their lifestyle. That which can be granted by government – like, unlimited vacation junkets – can be taken away by government.

And the only way these appointees and corporate beneficiaries can justify a government-sponsored lifestyle is to assume that this is the normal and permanent state of affairs.

When the ruling class considers the rest of the country to be not the source of sovereignty, but an economic resource to be exploited by force, and all parties involved conclude that government is serving no other purpose, that is when revolutions start.

Now, let us all work to make sure that never happens, but if it does, would liberals stand in front of the mob and say, “but without government, who would fix the roads?”

The point is not whether or not we want government to fix the roads or maintain public services. The point is that acceptance of those services is not a blanket justification of government institutions. Justification of government as such is exploited by the same conservatives who say government shouldn’t be spending on poor people, so that they can redistribute income upward and use government force to benefit themselves.

If leftists can’t grasp this distinction between libertarianism and conservatism, let alone the difference between ideal conservatism and what passes for it now, then they can’t complain when the rest of us question the difference between Stalinism and socialism.

Nevertheless, this means that the ultimate burden is on the Right. Because if the “official” right-wing party is going to embrace a level of villainy that Snidely Whiplash would find implausible, it threatens to render any opposition to the Democratic Party establishment illegitimate. Which means that anybody who wants a real opposition either has to invest in the Libertarian Party, create a new center-right party (the new Whigs, maybe?) or convince the “moderate” Republicans in Congress to volunteer for spine implants.

 

Paulie Numbnuts and Liddle Donnie Clown Boy

It is appropriate that on official Tax Day, I look over the legacy of Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives Paul Ryan, who this week announced he would not run for re-election. This links to Paul Ryan’s mostly consistent support for Donald Trump, since Trump as president was instrumental to Ryan’s long-term goals of cutting taxes and government. Thus Ryan’s decision stands as a verdict on how well his loyalty to Trump paid off for himself and the Republican Party.

The first point, which most pundits haven’t spelled out, is that Ryan’s decision means it is no longer a matter of whether Republicans will lose the House in the 2018 midterms, it is just a matter of how badly. Prior to this decision one could argue that the matter was up in the air. But Ryan’s value to the Republican rank-and-file was his formidable fund-raising ability, and that has been undermined. If Ryan had kept his decision to himself and only retired after the November election results (whether Republicans kept the House or not) he would have been a more credible spokesman for other candidates on the campaign trail. Now even though he’s still going to stump for other Republicans, everyone is going to know that he’s campaigning for them when he won’t run himself.

That in itself leads to a broader implication. The fact that Ryan did not conceal his position until after the election (when he probably would have won his own seat) implies that he saw no point in fighting for the House. This is what gets to the question of Donald Trump’s real effect on Republican policy and its chances of long-term survival. The press has noted for some time that even before the primary process is finished, many Republicans are simply not running for re-election. Including House members who are running for other offices, only 19 House Democrats are resigning or leaving after 2018, compared to 40 Republicans. Democrats need 23 more seats to take the House. Normally the majority party would have the edge because incumbents usually win re-election. By not contesting certain seats, Republicans render them open and thus increase the chances that they’ll go to Democrats. But given the stakes of the last Republican Congress, where Paul Ryan and his caucus gutted many of the regulations on Obamacare and passed a surprisingly unpopular tax cut whose benefits went mostly to the party’s donor class, the stakes for retaining control of the chamber are dire. Why then is Paul Ryan doing something that will do more to hurt the Republican majority than any other single act?

Well, let’s just consider This Week in Trumpworld.

On Monday April 9, the FBI raided the home, hotel room and law office of Donald Trump’s personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, on the recommendation of Robert Mueller and the specific permission of Mueller’s supervisor, Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein. It has since been reported that several of Trump’s confidants are afraid that Cohen may have taped conversations that prosecutors could use against both him and his boss. And since this (and several other cases) are being processed through state offices in New York, firing Rosenstein or Mueller, or giving a federal pardon to Cohen or other confidants, would not make the cases go away. Then it turned out that Cohen and Stormy Daniels’ former lawyer, Keith Davidson, had also handled a hush-money settlement to a former Playboy Playmate who had an affair with Elliot Broidy, deputy finance chairman of the Republican National Committee. (This was a position also held at one point by Cohen.) Then towards the end of the week, Jim Comey, the FBI director that Trump fired after handing him the election, previewed his new tell-all book by leaking copies to the press, excerpts saying things like  “As I found myself thrust into the Trump orbit, I once again was having flashbacks to my earlier career as a prosecutor against the mob. The silent circle of assent. The boss in complete control. The loyalty oaths. The us-versus-them worldview. The lying about all things, large and small, in service to some code of loyalty that put the organization above morality and the truth”, and that when he mentioned the possibility that Russians had taped Trump in a room with two prostitutes, Trump “began discussing cases where women had accused him of sexual assault, a subject I had not raised. He mentioned a number of women, and seemed to have memorized their allegations.”

It’s not looking good. So what do you do if you’re Trump?
Yep, you bomb another country!

As I said after Trump’s last missile wank, almost exactly a year ago, Trump wasn’t trying to send a message to Syria and Russia over Syria’s chemical warfare. He was trying to send a message to gullible American establishment types, including the liberal media, that he was trying to be serious. If he was serious, then there would be more of a broad-based policy for achieving a peace in Syria. The fact that Chump tossed off one missile strike and pronounced “Mission Accomplished” demonstrates that the whole thing is just a diversion.

So why does he need a diversion? And again, why did Paul Ryan throw away the last chance to maintain control of Congress when they and Trump rely on each other for mutual protection?

Maybe it has something to do with what conservative Erick Erickson posted this week as the latest set of catastrophes were coming to light. He talked with a local Republican Congressman who told him “If we’re going to lose because of (Trump), we might as well impeach the motherf**ker”. Erickson goes, “What’s the problem, though? Well, get ready…

“It’s like Forrest Gump won the presidency, but an evil, really f*cking stupid Forrest Gump. He can’t help himself. He’s just a f**king idiot who thinks he’s winning when people are b*tching about him. He really does see the world as ratings and attention. I hate Forrest Gump. I listen to your podcast and heard you hate it too. What an overrated piece of sh*t movie. Can you believe it beat the Shawshank Redemption?'”

Then consider that for some time, long-time Trumpnik Ann Coulter has been calling herself a “Former Trumper.” She has gone so far as to do an interview with Teh Failing New York Times admitting, among other things, that a $1.3 trillion dollar omnibus spending bill that had hardly any money for Trump’s (alleged) immigration agenda sent her over the edge. “I don’t know what more horrible thing you could come up with than violating your central campaign promise that became the chant and the theme of the campaign that he promised at every single rally. I mean, implementing the principles of ‘The Communist Manifesto’ wouldn’t be more of a betrayal than that.”

Wow, the Jersey casino boss who went bankrupt four times couldn’t follow through on his commitments, and you’re surprised?

It goes to show how damn stupid the Trumpniks are. And by that I’m not just referring to the rednecks on social media who commit eight grammatical errors in a five-word sentence. I’m referring to the articulate people like Coulter, and the Billionaire Stringpullers like the Mercers and the Koch Brothers, who are supposed to be smart enough to know better. And of course I’m referring to Paul Ryan, the supposed “policy wonk.” All of these people wanted to believe that Trump was something other than what he was. And it just ties into the point that while Republicans have spent some time appealing only to a certain section of the country, their long-term problem is that they can’t appeal to everyone in their coalition at once.

Libertarian-adjacent writer Will Wilkerson had a great autopsy in the Times where he went over Ryan’s Faustian bargain with Trump: “Politics isn’t physics, but a governing Republican philosophy that sees it as a moral imperative to slash the budgets of social programs that benefit mainly older and working-class white people is bound, sooner or later, to drive a party of mainly older and working-class white people off a cliff.” The only way Ryan could accomplish his legislative goals was to get a Republican in the White House, and the only one who could get in the White House was the one who least hewed to Republican orthodoxy. “Mr. Trump spotted opportunity in the injured dignity of the Republican base and the feckless irrelevance of the establishment’s agenda. He told Republicans shaken by the reality and risk of downward mobility that they were the only Americans who counted, and that they had been cheated and betrayed. He promised never to cut their Social Security or Medicare, and expressed admiration for single-payer health care. He took their side against immigrant rapists, murderous jihadis, plundering trade deals, dangerous city people and disloyal, condescending elites of all parties and persuasions. He promised to use his billionaire superpowers to rig the economy to their advantage. It didn’t matter that he is a transparently corrupt, bigoted, sexually abusive, compulsive liar. He offered the dignity of recognition, promised to fight, and won. … As soon as Mr. Trump clinched the nomination, Mr. Ryan became as tame as a poodle (but) the Republican majority was crippled from the start by the fundamental conflict between a government-shrinking agenda and the immediate material interests of Republican voters.”

It comes down to the point that the fundamental dynamic of the Republican Party is the conflict between a financial elite that sponsors the politicians and a populist voter base that actually elects them. And there’s only one person who can credibly be listed as both a populist and a member of the financial elite: Donald Trump. (And yes, that means that the policies of the Trump Administration in practice are unbelievably schizoid, but what would you expect?)

The end result is that the “conservative” Republican Party has become a personality cult that invests itself in the whims and vagaries of one man who is well into the second half of his lifespan, rather than in philosophical principles that are supposed to stand the test of time against political fashion. In other words, the opposite of conservatism in theory.

This explains why the various groups in the current Republican tent don’t just prep Mike Pence for the White House (apart from the fact that he may be tainted, too). While the Religious Right guys would love Pence, neither the Koch-style “economic libertarians” nor the Roseanne types who think the Kochs are trying to rob them care all that much about fundamentalist priorities, such as gay rights or what trans people call themselves. (They don’t care that much about queer people, but by the same token, they aren’t strongly motivated to disenfranchise them.) But what the plutocrats, the fundies and the Tea Party working class all want is someone who’s going to fulfill their dreams by cutting through all the dross of the democratic republic and run things the right way – even when they have different ideas as to what that means. They are all desperate for a strongman, even if he isn’t really strong. Or smart. Or politically skilled. And might be compromised by organized crime and the Russians.

Poor little Trumpniks. They wanted a Leader. They wanted a great man on horseback. What they got was Liddle Donnie Clown Boy.

And while Trump retains some popularity in the Heartland, those policy wonks who may disagree with liberals but know how Washington actually works day-to-day have gotten to see how Trump operates day-to-day. And they’re coming around to the realization that he is doing to their party what he did to the Atlantic City gambling industry.

But now that they finally have the White House and both houses of Congress, they’re all in on the philosophy that there is no rule of law and all that matters is being in the biggest gang. There’s just one problem with that attitude.

Republicans aren’t the biggest gang.

Indeed, the deliberate Republican strategy for the past few election cycles has been to game the federal system and their own primary election process to marginalize everyone outside a few set opinions so that anyone who isn’t “politically correct” can’t get nominated and voter ID laws and other schemes limit the potential voter pool for general elections. Rather than try to appeal to the broadest possible group (the way Democrats have been), Republicans purge their own ranks for purity, run on issues that appeal only to the hardcore, then try to make sure that only the “right” people vote for them. And then some of them wake up and realize they’re screwed because no one will vote for them.

This is a serious lesson for any group, Left or Right, that wants to change the system. The knowledge that not everyone is going to agree with you ought to indicate that you aren’t going to retain power indefinitely, and thus you should start with the changes that everyone can agree with and have a chance at enduring, rather than deliberately making radical changes that are guaranteed to piss off everybody who isn’t you. Otherwise, antagonizing the rest of the country on the premise that you’ll get away with it forever not only reduces the chance of you staying a majority, it increases the chance that the opposition will try to roll back everything you did when, NOT if, they take the government back.

So Much For First Principles

Nothing in democratic politics is given — or rather, the things we consider given at any moment enjoy this status for no more exalted reason than that public opinion (expressed primarily through elections) favors treating it as such. But the settlement or consensus in its favor is always temporary and contingent. The contestation of politics, the struggle over power and ideas, over the Constitution and the law and who we are as a political community, never ends. It’s always possible for a settlement or consensus at one moment of history to be rethought, overturned, or reversed. Rights granted can later be rescinded — and there’s no way to prevent that from happening beyond continuing the fight, day after day.

-Damon Linker, The Week

It’s time for me to introduce another of my personal axioms. The first was: “It is possible for two different things to be true at the same time.” The second was: “Every new president somehow lowers the bar.” The third is: There are no a priori concepts.

A priori (Latin for ‘from the prior’) is a phrase that is frequently invoked in philosophy but was popularized by Immanuel Kant in the 1781 Critique of Pure Reason. Without getting way too technical and over-involved (like Kant), the author was writing in reaction to contemporary philosophy, the one extreme being radical empiricism (example: David Hume) and the other being rationalism divorced from experience (ex: Bishop George Berkeley). While Kant asserted the reality of the material world and “experience”, philosophers ultimately count him as an idealist who distinguished knowledge gained after experience (knowledge a posteriori) from knowledge a priori, universal truths existing prior to experience of phenomena. “But although all our cognition commences with experience, yet it does not on that account all arise from experience.” Philosophers ever since have been gnawing over the merits of Kant’s work, so I don’t think people will assume that it’s easy for me to blast his thesis to bits. It seems, however, that problems can easily be deduced. For instance, in asserting “that certain cognitions even abandon the field of all possible experiences”, Kant cited as primary examples the concepts of God, Free Will and Immortality. But for these three to be truly independent and transcendent of culture and experience, they would have to be common elements in all philosophy, not just the heritage of Greco-Roman/Judeo-Christian culture. In Eastern philosophy by contrast, a Supreme Being exists in Hinduism but is not necessarily inherent in Buddhism, Free Will implies a concept of self that both Hinduism and Buddhism are opposed to, and Immortality exists only in a concept of samsara, or cyclical existence and reincarnation, in which the individual comes to see the phenomenal world as futility and ultimately seeks to end the cycle rather than preserve it.

What does this have to do with anything at all?

Because in the realm of politics, Americans, specifically liberals, are acting as though certain elements of the political debate are a priori assumptions and not to be questioned. But in the above example, Kant declared that Western philosophy pointed to theism because theism was at the basis of philosophy. But if one goes outside that philosophical perspective, it becomes clear that not everyone holds those beliefs as the given.

I bring this up due to a couple of subjects.

The Atlantic magazine recently hired National Review columnist Kevin Williamson, which is in line with other controversial decisions from center-left media (like The New York Times) hiring right-wing columnists like Bari Weiss and Bret Stephens for the sake of “perspective.” The very fact of these selections is a tacit admission that the readers of such media are only getting one side of the debate. But the ink wasn’t dry on Williamson’s first Atlantic piece before liberals brought up remarks he made on a conservative podcast where he said: “And someone challenged me on my views on abortion, saying, ‘If you really thought it was a crime, you would support things like life in prison, no parole, for treating it as a homicide.’ And I do support that. In fact, as I wrote, what I had in mind was hanging.” This was known at the time, yet Williamson got hired by The Atlantic, and Thursday April 5, Williamson got fired, editor Jeffrey Goldberg declaring: “The language he used in this podcast—and in my conversations with him in recent days—made it clear that the original tweet did, in fact, represent his carefully considered views. The tweet was not merely an impulsive, decontextualized, heat-of-the-moment post, as Kevin had explained it.” (As of the 5th, Williamson’s one column is still up on the Atlantic website, where he was still listed as a staff writer.)

It was in fact another Atlantic piece that pointed to a National Review article of March 2016 where Williamson said in regard to White Working Class Trump Voters:  “There wasn’t some awful disaster. There wasn’t a war or a famine or a plague or a foreign occupation. Even the economic changes of the past few decades do very little to explain the dysfunction and negligence—and the incomprehensible malice—of poor white America. So the gypsum business in Garbutt ain’t what it used to be. There is more to life in the 21st century than wallboard and cheap sentimentality about how the Man closed the factories down. The truth about these dysfunctional, downscale communities is that they deserve to die. Economically, they are negative assets. Morally, they are indefensible. … The white American underclass is in thrall to a vicious, selfish culture whose main products are misery and used heroin needles. Donald Trump’s speeches make them feel good. So does OxyContin.” So I’m a bit surprised that anybody there is surprised at what they were getting.

As Reason Magazine’s Katherine Mangu-Ward says, “the underlying logic of Williamson’s position is a view shared by roughly half or at least 40 percent of Americans.” It is a position one can argue with, but the opposite (pro-abortion rights) position is not necessarily the accepted wisdom, unless you are a liberal. Mangu-Ward continues: “I have personally been the beneficiary of this doublethink on ideological diversity for years. When institutions recognize the need to have a nonliberal somewhere in their midst, they look across the landscape and discover that the closest thing to conservatism that they can tolerate is a relatively mild-mannered, young(ish), female, pro-choice libertarian. Which is to say, not a conservative at all.”

More broadly, this is part of why the abortion debate can’t be simply resolved by an appeal to logic or first principles, because the first principles of each side are radically different, as are their implications, depending on how far you want to go. As I grow older and the fragility of life becomes more obvious to me, I am more inclined towards the Catholic position, which is pro-life on both abortion AND the death penalty. Nevertheless, I have to define myself as pro-choice, because if we actually defined abortion as murder, Williamson’s posture would be less of a posture and more of a possibility.

See, Kant’s other famous idea was the thought experiment called the categorical imperative. Having eliminated the possibility of deriving truth from empirical data (or rather, asserting that it only applied to the ‘phenomenal realm’), Kant sought a device by which one could determine the morality of an action in a given situation. He defined this categorical imperative in action thus: “Act only according to that maxim by which you can at the same time will that it should become a universal law.” Translated, Kant is expecting the individual to take responsibility for every choice as an example of a universal principle.

When challenged on this by the Frenchman Benjamin Constant, who said that if lying goes against the categorical imperative, this would mean that there is a duty not to lie to a murderer seeking a target, Kant replied that (while one might simply withhold any statement and keep silent) it is nevertheless a greater duty to be truthful to the murderer than to protect a potential target: “Although in telling a certain lie, I do not actually do anyone a wrong, I formally but not materially violate the principle of right with respect to all unavoidably necessary utterances. And this is much worse than to do injustice to any particular person, because such a deed against an individual does not always presuppose the existence of a principle in the subject which produces such an act.”

This gets to the real issue with Kantian idealism. With the categorical imperative, and in a much broader respect with the Critique of Pure Reason and subsequent work, Kant was trying to act against the philosophy of “consequentialism”, and define a universal moral law that was not undermined by “self-love” or ulterior motives. Yet, to apply the categorical imperative, one has to apply consequences on the most abstract level, and limit one’s action on the principle that a particular action sets a universal example. To Kant, to lie in any circumstance is to justify lying in all circumstances, and thus the abstract consequence of violating philosophy is used to dismiss the practical consequence of making that maxim a universal.

Most people, of course, don’t think like this. Unless you’re in politics.

This in a roundabout way gets to the other topic I am thinking about.

One of the reasons that gun crime remains an issue is that every time a firearms massacre occurs, liberals can’t get the “common-sense gun safety” legislation they want, because even when it is common-sense and supported by the public (national background checks, for instance), it gets shot down in the Congress and state legislatures. This is mostly because of the NRA and its commercial priorities, but the NRA itself is representing a larger gun culture, and I would say that a huge reason for their success in resisting political pressure is that they are as inflexible in compromising gun rights as Planned Parenthood and liberal organizations are in resisting compromise on abortion rights. Just as pro-choice people resist conservative attempts to restrict abortion access as a transparent ploy towards ending abortion rights altogether, the gun lobby presents any gun control legislation as a slippery slope towards total gun prohibition.

At this point, liberals might object. We’ve established that there really are some conservatives who not only want to ban abortion but want to prosecute it as murder. But surely being anti-gun isn’t the same thing. The argument being proffered by liberals is that they aren’t trying to end gun rights, just establish proper security procedures. “Nobody’s saying we need to get rid of the Second Amendment.”

Except, some people are.

On March 27, retired Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens attracted headlines with a New York Times column in which he stated that the only solution to gun violence was the repeal of the Second Amendment. Stevens points out that the Second Amendment was put in the Bill of Rights because of a fear that a national standing army would threaten the security of the separate states, thus the default assumption that defense was a matter for state militia. But to Stevens, “that concern is a relic of the 18th century.” Stevens states that his concern stems from the 2008 Supreme Court decision District of Columbia v. Heller, in which he was one of four dissenters, and which he asserts “has provided the N.R.A. with a propaganda weapon of immense power.” Removing the Second Amendment, Stevens says, “would eliminate the only legal rule that protects sellers of firearms in the United States – unlike every other market in the world.” Blanking out of course, that by Stevens’ own argument, we’d had the Second since the signing of the Constitution, and the prior standard of its interpretation before Heller was more to his liking, and it would be much easier and more practical to appoint more justices who agreed with him than it would be to go through the whole process of amending the Constitution.

Keep in mind, when Antonin Scalia wrote his opinion in Heller, he specifically stated: “Like most rights, the Second Amendment right is not unlimited. It is not a right to keep and carry any weapon whatsoever in any manner whatsoever and for whatever purpose: For example, concealed weapons prohibitions have been upheld under the Amendment or state analogues. The Court’s opinion should not be taken to cast doubt on longstanding prohibitions on the possession of firearms by felons and the mentally ill, or laws forbidding the carrying of firearms in sensitive places such as schools and government buildings, or laws imposing conditions and qualifications on the commercial sale of arms. Miller’s holding that the sorts of weapons protected are those ‘in common use at the time’ finds support in the historical tradition of prohibiting the carrying of dangerous and unusual weapons.”

Not to mention, liberals have never fussed about applying the First Amendment towards a general category of individual freedom of expression that applies far beyond 18th-century artefacts like “the press.”

All Heller did was to knock away the specious rationale that the Constitution says anything about a “collective right” that is inherent in the government and not the people. Liberals wail that Scalia’s opinion arbitrarily blew away the previous consensus on what the American legal standard of gun ownership is supposed to be, eliding the point that said standard was a precedent that did not date back to the founding documents, and is most strongly based in US vs. Miller.

Nevertheless, Stevens’ piece is worthwhile in that someone is at least approaching the matter honestly. The main fact in Stevens’ opinion was that we haven’t actually needed state militia units since the Civil War, and their domestic security purpose is effectively taken over by the National Guard. But that gets to the general point that much of the government’s “rules as written” (the Constitution) have little to do with how the US government works in practice. Challenging the Second Amendment simply forces us to admit that the government hasn’t operated according to its original principles for quite some time, but it doesn’t answer the question as to whether that is really a good thing.

For example, the Third Amendment says that the government is not allowed to quarter troops in private homes. “No Soldier shall, in time of peace be quartered in any house, without the consent of the Owner, nor in time of war, but in a manner to be prescribed by law.” We haven’t even needed to consider this, because since the constitutional government was founded, the government has always provided for troops and had the money to do so, thus the option has never been necessary. That being the case, why do we still need the Third Amendment?

Because, we all know that if we didn’t have the Third Amendment, Republicans would force wealthy Democrats to quarter troops on their property so they could raid the defense budget for their personal vacations.

This is why it doesn’t help liberals to say that “the Constitution is a living document.” Because if “conservatives” press their current advantage, and get multiple justices on the Supreme Court, they could repeal Roe v. Wade, or Brown v. Board of Education. And at that point, asserting that the Constitution is a “living document” won’t sound quite so cute.

So this is what I’m getting at: First, Immanuel Kant sucks. But that’s not directly relevant. Secondly, we do not all share the same first principles, which is made clear by American political history in general and the current trend of politics in particular. Third, even beyond first principles, the real reason that liberals and conservatives can’t trust each other these days is that they both assume the worst of each other when they get into power. Which is eminently justified.

GAME REVIEW: Starfinder

 

I’m going to take a different tack with this blog for a bit.

I play role-playing games – as in, tabletop, dice rolling, role-playing games – and in my hobby I’d done a few reviews for a couple of RPG forums, enough to where a few game publishers actually forwarded me free material to review. Ironically, I got turned off to those sites because of the non-gaming, political discussions, after one of those forums got taken over by the kind of SJWs who think anybody to the right of Che Guevara is a Nazi, and the other site went in the opposite direction, being so disgusted with “social justice” movements that they think Donald Trump is a hero. And much of the reason I got into those political discussions is that the gaming discussions bored me. I already knew what I liked, and the commentary seemed to be mostly fixed opinions on various games, which became too predictable to be worthwhile. I still did reviews, but I noticed that not too many people read them, and in the case of one of those sites, not too many people were even contributing reviews anymore. It was a point of diminishing returns.

Which didn’t stop me from actually playing games with my friends. I have two separate groups playing on two different nights. One of them frequently runs Pathfinder, a Dungeons & Dragons offshoot that became popular after the owners of the actual D&D brand temporarily decided to turn their product into the gaming version of New Coke. Recently, the host of our game wanted to try being Game Master of the new spinoff game, Starfinder, which is Pathfinder in space. Sorta.

In light of both our game experience and my study of the core rulebook, I wanted to do a review of Starfinder, because it actually differs in some respects from the original Pathfinder, and in light of the recent news that after almost 10 years of Paizo Publishing making the Pathfinder RPG, they’ve decided to playtest a second edition of the rules – for which Starfinder helped serve as a model.

Starfinder, like Pathfinder, is set in its own fictional universe, like the D&D settings of Greyhawk and Forgotten Realms. In this case, Pathfinder is set on the Earth-like world of Golarion, which is established to be in a solar system with other planets, most of which have their own humanoid races, akin to early 20th Century science fiction. The premise of Starfinder is that it occurs some point in the far future in the Pathfinder universe, but for some reason, Golarion no longer exists. Or is in another dimension. Or something. No one knows why. In fact, whatever it is that removed planet Golarion also removed everyone’s memory of exactly what happened, an event now known to the interplanetary civilization as “the Gap.” (Supposedly this was done to prevent Pathfinder players from changing the established history of the setting, though given the severe difference in tech levels, no Pathfinder player characters should have lived long enough to see the Gap.)

Likewise, the Starfinder setting still technically has the Tolkien-like races such as Elves and Halflings, but stats for them are in the back of the book. The core rules focus on Humans and the inhabitants of those other worlds in the solar system, such as Androids, the four-armed Kasathas and the telepathic Lashuntas. It also features the Vesk, a warlike reptilian race who tried to conquer the solar system before both sides had to ally against a greater threat. Most of these races (including Androids but not Vesk) had game stats in Pathfinder material that was previously published for sci-fi crossover scenarios. What’s different, and where you have the first change from the prior Pathfinder game, is that each race (including Humans) has their own stat for Hit Points. Hit Points of course are the D&D stat that determines how much damage a character takes before getting taken out. Traditionally, though, players rolled their hit points on “Hit Dice” randomly depending on their character class, with warrior classes getting more hit points (rolled on a 10-sided die, or d10) and scholarly wizards getting less (rolling a d6 or even a d4). In Starfinder, Hit Points are a set number coming from both a character’s class and race, the two values being added together at 1st level and every new experience level. Starfinder also gives characters the “Stamina Points” stat, which is related but not quite the same thing, and the Resolve Points stat, which is pretty important in play (see below).

Character classes are different from the set given in Pathfinder and most D&D games. Pathfinder is infamous for taking the base assumptions of D&D classes – the “martial” fighters and rogues, with clerics and wizards – and exploding them with various options in new sourcebooks such that there are now at least twenty. Starfinder, at least in its corebook, only has seven classes. Some cases are obvious analogs to D&D/Pathfinder style classes. The Soldier, for instance, is the equivalent of the Fighter, only a good deal more versatile. In this regard, there’s another clear difference between Starfinder and the edition of D&D that Pathfinder was based on: Soldiers get twice the skill points of D&D/PF Fighters. (Spellcasters also got screwed on skill points in Pathfinder, whereas in this game most people are assumed to be technically skilled, so each class gets at least 4 skill points per level.) You also have the Envoy, who uses Charisma to outmaneuver enemies and help friends (basically a Bard, or what some games would call a Noble), the Operative (read: a Rogue, or Thief), the Mystic (Cleric) and Technomancer (Wizard or Sorcerer). However there is also a Mechanic class that deals specifically with the technical issues that you would get in a space science fiction game, with options like cyberware and drones. There’s also the Solarian, a melee warrior class which for reasons unexplained is able to “manipulate the forces of the stars themselves.” This gives access to some pretty cool comic-book type powers, but most of them require the solarian to already be in combat over a period of rounds in order to be “attuned” to stellar energy.

Furthermore, there’s a step in character creation that’s actually introduced before the rules for races and classes. It’s called the theme. There are actually more character themes (ten) than there are classes, ranging from Ace Pilot to Themeless (as in, if you don’t want to pick one of the other themes). Each adds +1 to a favored attribute, creates a “theme knowledge” (reducing the difficulty number of checks to recall a favored subject, and adds to a favored skill, like Piloting for the Ace Pilot theme), and adds three other abilities at 6th, 12th and 18th levels. The themes usually link up to a certain class – for instance, the Priest theme adds +1 to Wisdom and aligns perfectly with the Mystic class – but the thing is that each theme could combine with any class. So if you combined Mystic with the Mercenary theme, you could define your character as a military chaplain.

Again, while skills work much as they do in other D&D/D20 System games, the Starfinder skill list includes the things that would be necessary in this setting, namely Computers, Engineering and Piloting, which don’t have analogs in fantasy games. All three of these skills are needed for different crew positions in starship combat, which is another common element in this game that doesn’t exist in Pathfinder. This also means that some skill functions got absorbed into other skills. Survival is still a skill, for instance, but most people use vehicles, so Riding isn’t its own skill in Starfinder. Instead, one uses Survival skill to ride a creature.

In practice the main difference between Starfinder and Pathfinder is the array of equipment available through technology, although most of it will not be available to 1st-level characters due to sheer cost. One feature of this game is that equipment items (including armor and weapons but also computers) have a level, like spells or characters. This is on a scale where a survival knife does 1 to 4 hit points damage, costs 95 credits and is level 1. By contrast, an elite gyrojet rifle does 6 to 72 (6 12-sided dice) in damage, is level 17 and costs 242,500 credits. The range of non-magical weapons available due to technology is greatly increased, including lasers, cryo (cold) weapons and electric stunners, among others, although again the damage at low levels isn’t much. You can also mix magic and technology, which in this setting frequently involves “weapon fusions”, commercially available, advanced enchantments that can be applied to an existing weapon or can, with difficulty, be transferred from one weapon to another. (So if you wanted a Holy or Dragon Bane Shotgun, this is your game.) Also, similar to cyberpunk games, cybernetics and bio-systems can be installed in a character’s body, although this is also expensive in relation to the item level. (A standard datajack that can be attached to one’s skull for computer interface is 625 credits. One with bonuses to the Computer roll is up to 8525 credits.)

While the equipment list is necessarily expanded for a science fiction game, the magic spells list (for what is still a fantasy game) is actually compressed. This might be because the technology that is available to everybody (with enough credits) makes magic less unique. For instance, a medical lab can install an item called a regeneration table, which uses nanites to effectively duplicate any heal spell up to Raise Dead, although the need to attune to a given creature’s biology means it can only be used once. In any case, both Mystics and Technomancers only get 6 levels of spells as opposed to D&D’s traditional 9. Various spells with similar but progressive effects are grouped into one spell with various levels, thus the Cure Wounds spells become one “Mystic Cure” spell at levels 1 to 6, and the 1st level “Feather Fall” in D&D simply becomes the 1st level spell version of Flight. The book says that spellcasters don’t care too much about the distinction between “arcane” vs. “divine” magic, but in practice, mystics seem to focus on psychic and healing powers, while technomancers “hack” physical processes. Notably, while Wish (or Miracle) is still on the spell list, it isn’t given a spell level, rather a spellcaster needs to be 20th level to cast it (once a week for a mystic to use Miracle, whereas a technomancer needs to spend 2 Resolve Points and ‘fuse’ two 6th level spells to use Wish).

In Play

The Starfinder game my Gamemaster is running has gotten our characters up to 3rd level after about 5 or so adventures. We have a Technomancer (me), a Mechanic, a Mystic, an Operative, a Soldier and an Envoy. I believe the GM is using a published series of adventures (what the company calls an ‘adventure path’) and it does a fairly good job of introducing the players to successive elements of the game setting. For example, when our team was hired to explore a certain asteroid, we had to use a rented shuttle, which for reasons still unknown got attacked by a fighter craft, thus leading to low-level starship combat. The corebook’s section on Starships explains that various crew positions each require certain skills, which in turn make certain classes better suited to certain bridge stations. For instance while the Envoy is not great in direct combat, most of the actions assigned to the captain in starship combat are best performed by the Envoy or other high-Charisma character (this game seems to go with the Captain Kirk concept of ship command). Attacks are based on the gunner’s base attack bonus, which means that the gunnery role always goes to the soldier (or solarian). Otherwise I have noticed that most classes are flexible in regard to holding ship positions. The Technomancer, for instance, is likewise not good in direct combat and doesn’t have all the engineering tricks of the Mechanic, but has several of the Mechanic’s core skills (including Engineering and Piloting) and thus while best suited to be science officer can serve well as a pilot or engineer. By contrast the Mystic class doesn’t have either of those skills, and while it does have several Charisma skills the character would only be a good captain if it were built around such skills. In practice the mystic is very much a “healbot” in the D&D mode, and as it turns out, healing is at least as important in this game as it is in Pathfinder.

In regular (non-starship) combat, characters not only use Hit Points but the aforementioned Stamina Points, which are similar to concepts from some other d20 games (like Wizards of the Coast’s licensed Star Wars game). The difference is that while Hit Points only recover with Cure spells or an 8-hour period of rest, Stamina Points can be recovered with a 10 minute rest, but that requires the expenditure of a Resolve Point. In character creation, each race gets its own base hit points (from 2 to 6) at first level, plus a similar number of hit points at 1st level and every level thereafter due to character class. Each class provides a certain number of stamina points (plus a Constitution modifier) per level. Resolve Points are “an intrinsic reservoir of grit and luck tied to your talents and often enchanced by your class.” Each character has a number of Resolve Points equal to half character level (round down, minimum 1) plus the character’s key ability score modifier (e.g. Wisdom for Mystic). Stamina Points and Resolve Points normally refresh entirely after 8 hours of uninterrupted rest. Without magic, hit points only recover at the rate of 1 per character level each 8 hours, or twice that with 24 hours of complete bed rest. The kicker is that while stamina points give each character an extra layer of durability compared to D&D characters, once they’re burned off, you take damage to hit points. Once hit points are gone, you don’t go into negative hit points. Rather, each round you lose 1 Resolve Point until your character is medically stabilized. If that doesn’t happen and you would be brought below 0 Resolve Points, you die. So this is the Resolve Point economy in combat: You can use Resolve Points to stretch your character’s stamina points (with a 10-minute rest), but you don’t want to use them all, because if you should go down to hit points (which is likely if grevious damage causes the character to lose both stamina and hit points in the same battle) and are in danger of going to 0 HP, your remaining Resolve Points are the only thing standing between your character and death. This is complicated still further because Resolve Points are the “hero point” mechanic of the game. At mid to higher levels, certain class features either require spending a Resolve Point or require the character to have at least 1 Resolve Point still unspent. So while the Starfinder character is twice as tough as the D&D/PF character on paper, in practice you have to budget the use of Resolve Points very carefully in order for that critical situation to not sneak up on you.

In Conclusion

There were some things about the Starfinder game I didn’t like, such as being rather vague in how certain abilities translate from SF to Pathfinder and vice versa. For instance, Small characters in Pathfinder (like Gnomes and Halflings) are treated as having a slower movement rate than Humans, but this isn’t mentioned here, even though it is mentioned that Starfinder Dwarves have a movement rate of 20 feet that is not affected by encumbrance (just as in Pathfinder). The layout and font resembles a tech manual (whereas the Pathfinder Core Rulebook has pages resembling yellowing parchment), but unfortunately it also reads like a tech manual, and not only does the smaller font make the work physically harder to read, the layout also makes it harder to get information on healing lost damage points, how solarian class powers work, and other non-trivial bits.

Nevertheless, the game at least provides the sort of skills and equipment that would be necessary to run a science fiction (or even contemporary) setting using D20 rules. (It’s certainly better for that than D20 Modern.) And as I mentioned, it might give us a peek at the Paizo Publishing design philosophy as they playtest Pathfinder 2nd Edition. Like, if the Pathfinder Fighter more resembled the Starfighter Soldier, it would probably work better. From what I’ve seen from Paizo’s site, the Pathfinder notes seem to be fairly similar to my experience with Starfinder: A lot of good ideas that aren’t clearly expressed. I like Starfinder from what I’ve played so far, but your mileage may vary.

And on that note…

HAPPY EASTER!

The Facebook Backlash

This post, I’m going to touch on something that is separate from yet related to all the political bullshit.

We know by now that part of the Russian intelligence campaign to assist in Donald Trump’s election was to foist propaganda through various means, including social media. Some of these contacts were through fake accounts or “bots.” But in some cases the agents were private sector businesses that styled themselves as social engineers. One that was frequently mentioned during the 2016 campaign was Cambridge Analytica, a company with a more than peripheral association with former Trump advisor Steve Bannon. Well, on March 20, Britain’s Channel 4 played an undercover tape of Cambridge Analytica CEO Alexander Nix in lunch discussions with a potential client, selling various services including the use of front companies and private data obtained via Facebook to turn elections or achieve other political results. Prior to this expose, former Cambridge Analytica employee Christopher Wylie went to the press to state that the entire company was based on “ill-gotten” Facebook data. The Daily Beast said “Facebook was reportedly informed of this alleged breach two years ago but did not go public to announce that a political consultancy linked to Bannon and the Mercers had access to details from 50 million Facebook accounts.”

This has rather rapidly led to a crisis of reputation for Facebook and founder Mark Zuckerberg. Zuckerberg did a media tour that failed to quiet his critics.

Bannon himself complained, “When Zuckerberg goes on TV yesterday, and Zuckerberg gives the New York Times an interview, and the opposition-party media plays patty-cake with him, and doesn’t ask him one tough question, his entire business model is made upon taking that data for free and monetizing it”. Facebook’s actions in coordinating with Cambridge Analytica are now being investigated in Great Britain, while in America there are calls for Zuckerberg to testify to Congress. But hey, there’s a silver lining.

According to the New York Times and a bunch of other media, there is now apparently a big wave of people who have publicly announced they are quitting Facebook, including of course, Cher.

Of course it’s a sign of the hypocrisy and virtue signaling implied here that in order to blast one’s opinion as expediently as possible to all corners, these people are making their announcements on Twitter.

Going on Twitter to announce that you’re quitting Facebook is like telling all your friends at the crackhouse that you’re going to stop drinking. “Hey! Good for you, Tom!”

I’ve gone over the problem with Twitter at length. And one of the things I said in regard to social media generally was “I believe that if you are going to have a social media presence, you should know the right tool for the right job. I don’t need a blog to share cute animal videos to friends. For that I have Facebook. I don’t post to this blog every day or even every week because I don’t always have time to elaborate on my ideas, whereas I can usually find the time to post something on Facebook. But I decided to create my own blog not only to post essay-length pieces but because I could control the content to a greater degree than something I posted or liked on Facebook.” In this regard, I consider Facebook to be a medium between the prior modes of text communication and Twitter, which is specialized for impulse posting and unconsidered opinion. You can use Facebook to make extended statements in one post. It doesn’t work that well with the format, but it is more feasible than on a Twitter format which is against extended thought by design.

But just as it seemed to be news to Jack Dorsey that Twitter had become a cesspool of antisocial behavior, Mark Zuckerberg acts like he wasn’t even able to entertain the concept that his platform was valued largely as a means of researching people’s desires in order to manipulate them – as in, beyond commercial advertising purposes.

The irony being that one of the issues with Facebook – the mechanic of “self” selecting material according to your already established preferences – means that one’s reality bubble is reinforced and there’s not much contact with political posts that clash with one’s biases. But if you’re one of those self-enclosed partisans, or if you somehow manage to never get into politics at all, it’s still fairly easy to see that as a free platform, Facebook relies on ads, “data mining” and various methods for content providers to separate you from your money. The most innocuous of these are technically free games that require you to pay money for the game equipment to complete various levels of play. And then of course there are the real clickbait scams like “Enter Your Credit Card Number to See What Star Wars Character You Are” and “Remember Rameses II? You’ll Never Guess What He Looks Like Now!”

Vox has apparently decided to write a bunch of articles against Facebook (similar to how they periodically write a bunch of articles against guns). The most trenchant of these is Matthew Yglesias’ piece, “The Case Against Facebook.” Yglesias mentions not only the confirmation-bias engine, but he also asserts that  the use of Facebook as a news platform is “(d)estroying journalism’s business model”. (Even though much of my awareness of Vox stems from their Facebook links.) Although he does concede, “Facebook critics in the press are often accused of special pleading, of hatred of a company whose growing share of the digital advertising pie is a threat to our business model. This is, on some level, correct.”

Whereas Ross Douthat (centrist conservative at the New York Times) said this week:  “But the liberal establishment’s fixation on Facebook’s 2016 sins — first the transmission of fake news and now the exploitation of its data by the Trump campaign or its appendages — still feels like a classic example of blaming something new because it’s new when it’s the old thing that mattered more. Or of blaming something new because you thought that “new” meant “good,” that the use of social-media data by campaigns would always help tech-savvy liberals and not their troglodytic rivals — and the shock of discovering otherwise obscures the more important role that older forms of media played in making the Trump era a reality. ”

Douthat goes on to the general point that for all the attention paid to the impact of social media and Donald Trump’s Twitter account, his real advantage was in old-school media giving him the equivalent of 2 billion dollars in free advertising through interviews, pro-Trump pundits and coverage of his rallies on basic cable “news” channels. But I already knew that.

In other words, while Yglesias and other critics are correct in asserting that Facebook’s mode of business undermines proper journalism in favor of consumerist imperatives like sensationalism and confrontation, this is hardly a problem unique to Facebook, or even to social media. Or as Douthat says in his column: “And as cynical as I believe the lords of Silicon Valley to be, the more important cynicism in 2016 belonged to those television execs who were fine with enabling the wild Trumpian takeover of the G.O.P., because after all Republicans deserved it and Hillary was sure to beat him in the end. Except that she didn’t beat him, in part because he also exploited the polarization that cable news, in particular, is designed to feed … The depth and breadth of Trump skepticism among right-wing pundits was a pretty solid indicator of his unfitness for high office. But especially once he won the nomination this skepticism was often filtered out of cable coverage, because the important thing was to maintain the partisan shouting-match model. This in turn encouraged a sense that this was just a typical right-versus-left election, in which you should vote for Trump if you usually voted for Republicans … and in the end that’s what most G.O.P. voters did. ”

Not that there isn’t reason to be concerned about the influence of tech companies (and the deceptive nature of Facebook businesses) as issues in themselves, but much of this hysteria over social media is mainstream liberals casting about for yet another excuse for why Queen Hillary lost. For example, the idea that a Russian propaganda effort was needed to brand Hillary Clinton as untrustworthy. Rush Limbaugh, Mark Levin, Sean Hannity had been doing that for maybe 20 years, and do we blame the Russians for that? Which doesn’t even touch on an analysis of whether Clinton actually IS untrustworthy, and why the longer she was in a position of real influence on policy, the more distrusted she was by the Left as the quintessential neoliberal.

Twitter is that much more a habitat for snarky, savvy social justice types, and it got taken even harder by the alt-right, but then Twitter is that much more disposed to emotional venting. So the Left can’t be too surprised by now that the Right keeps using their own culture against them. But then, if they weren’t always surprised by that, they wouldn’t be the Left.

From what I’ve seen of the pundit consensus in the last day or so, the opinion seems to be that Facebook being what it is, you shouldn’t be surprised that it’s exposing your data to unscrupulous people. And in fact, this was already the known business model. So if people are going to tie Facebook’s real issues to the current political catastrophe, it’s yet another case of the established gatekeepers blaming that pesky free will for screwing their world up.

I can’t blame anybody if they do quit Facebook, but I think the hype is overblown. If people are encouraged to look at it more critically, that’s one thing. Again, each medium is for different things.

I think Facebook is good for what it is, and the social problem with it (and to a greater extent Twitter) is that people expect it to be other than what it is. To spread cute, quick messages to a mass number of people, I’ll use Facebook. For more in-depth thinking, I have this blog.

I did link my Facebook account to some job-finder services like LinkedIn, so I’m thinking of cutting those connections. Especially since those sites aren’t helping me find a job. But then, that might be because, if those guys have access to my Facebook, they might see all the times I’ve said “fuck.”

Which is the real dilemma for me here. If I can’t say “fuck” on Facebook, what is it good for?

 

 

Just A Song Before I Go

I want to focus on happier subjects in the near future – for instance, I am planning a review of at least one role-playing game – but I did want to sweep over the latest catastrophes with Donald Trump.

The mainstream press is reporting that Trump is acting more belligerent towards the Mueller investigation because, after losing moderate insiders like Hope Hicks, he’s decided to “trust his gut instinct.” But look, Donald Trump is president. He’s gotten this far on trusting his gut instincts. Let’s face it, he’s got a huge gut.

But not only has Trump referred to Robert Mueller by name in Twit for the first time,  he decided to fire Deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe (who was Jim Comey’s acting replacement) just two days before his retirement. It has been alleged that the firing was justified because of a “lack of candor”, specifically in McCabe saying that he had authority to share information with the media, approved by “the director” (Comey), and that this contradicted Comey’s direct testimony under oath when he denied authorizing anonymous leaks to the media. However, McCabe didn’t say this until his official statement after being fired, and even if this is the legal justification for “lack of candor”, the Administration could have fired McCabe at any time for other reasons. The fact that McCabe was fired just two days before being eligible for retirement – when Trump complained about that retirement benefit three months beforehand – only proves that Trump had this done because he could, really.

Likewise Trump could fire Mueller or Attorney General Sessions at any time just because, but that would be ridiculously stupid. As in, even more so than he usually is.

The factors on this are explained in a pretty good article in Vox from Monday. It is technically more complicated to fire Mueller than McCabe (because he’s the assigned special counsel) but Trump can at least fire Sessions, in order to fire Assistant AG Rod Rosenstein, who appointed Mueller. Allegedly this would require “good cause” but it’s not like he needed it with McCabe. The real problems are that even if Trump got rid of Mueller, or hampered his probe, it wouldn’t stop the separate grand juries that have already been convened. Moreover, a shutdown of the probe would only encourage more leaks of what has been discovered, given that there would no longer be a point in concealing them: “Mueller’s probe has been remarkably leak-proof so far. Should the probe be shut down in what looks like a corrupt manner, it seems unlikely that would continue to be the case. At least some law enforcement officials would likely prove more willing to take the legal risks for leaking, should they feel it’s the only way to prevent a cover-up. And of course, the leaks after Comey’s firing were eventually followed by Mueller’s appointment. ”

As I’ve said, I am getting a bit tired of going over the obvious with our political situation, which is not only that Donald Trump is an evil moron who should not be president, but that the longer the ruling party refuses to admit this, the more legal responsibility falls on them for his crimes. Nothing will be done about this until the midterms, and given Democratic fecklessness, it remains to be seen how well they can capitalize on public anger. Nor is it necessarily a good idea for Democrats to make Russiagate a campaign focus for 2018, because that puts the focus on them. But Republicans have been gambling that they can get the “good stuff” by conservative standards (tax cuts, Supreme Court nominations) without the myriad liabilities of Donald Trump. The problem for them is not that Democrats will make Trump the focus of the election, but that Trump is making Trump the focus of the election. Of course the real problem is that Republicans cling to this goon as desperately as they can because he’s the most popular politician they have.

But in terms of not making Trump the issue, today was a particularly bad day. This week he decided to charge Stormy Daniels with violating her non-disclosure agreement, and seeks to charge her 20 million dollars – 1 million for each alleged violation. Today, however, The Wall Street Journal reported that she passed a polygraph test on the matter. Elsewhere, Trump got “benchslapped” in court when a Manhattan judge ruled that Trump had to face a defamation lawsuit brought by Summer Zevros over actions occurring while she appeared on The Apprentice with Trump. And also today, former Playboy Playmate Karen McDougal opened up her own lawsuit to kill her non-disclosure agreement, on the grounds that her own attorney at the time had conspired with Trump’s lawyer, Michael Cohen, to buy her silence on the pretext of buying magazine articles from her that were never published.

That sound of running water isn’t a dripping faucet, it’s a crack in the dam.

But friends and I were discussing this case on Facebook, and it did inspire me to make an observation on another point. Many of us – socialists, libertarians, and others who realize that machines will make unskilled labor near-obsolete – have been trying to find some way to make universal basic income possible. I have just figured out how to make universal basic income possible WITHOUT raising taxes OR cutting government services.

Because Donald Trump’s legal case hinges on him NOT having had sex with Stormy Daniels, because he paid her $130,000 to NOT say he had sex with her, and because only three people (the wives that he’s had children with) can be legally established as having sex with Donald Trump, therefore everyone else in the country is eligible to collect $130,000 from Donald Trump.

Excuse me, not Donald Trump. His lawyer.

Yeah, his lawyer.

Sure.

 

You Won, Trumpniks. Get Over It.

 

A few days ago, I saw this Facebook post from a right-wing troll site – I think it was “The Federalist Papers” – saying, “Notice how GUNS have stolen the attention from Clinton/Obama rigging the election?”

It raises another question in turn: Notice how Trumpniks want to complain about an election they won when the consequences of their vote start to bite them in the ass?

Last week, Viceroy Trump did at least two things to tweak his conservative backers. In another bipartisan conference with Republican and Democratic politicians, this time over gun violence, Trump once again went off script. Not only did he entertain gun legislation that Republicans have done their best to stop, he went that much further than Dianne Feinstein, saying that legal process in the case of the Florida shooter would have taken too long. “Take the guns first, go through due process second,” Trump said.

Conservatives warned me, if I didn’t vote for Trump, the government would try to take away our guns. And they were right!

And then at the end of the week, Trump announced (without conferring with most of his cabinet) that he was enacting tariffs of 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminum. Well, that is certainly the strategy of a stable genius. After all, one wouldn’t otherwise disregard the advice of the entire financial community and one’s own party if he were a raging ignoramus with the attention span of a squirrel on meth, would he?

There is some rationale for a protectionist policy, given that we have a national security interest in rebuilding the domestic steel industry – China is our main supplier, but they may not remain friendly to us. Moreover, Trump knows he got elected largely because of blue-collar steel country, and he knows his party has suddenly become very vulnerable in the Pennsylvania special election. But would Trump endanger so much on the large scale just to prop up support among a small part of the base? Well, it’s what he’s done so far. It’s of a piece with arming teachers, or supporting health insurance policies that cross state lines; some of his ideas seem both unconventional and reasonable, but it quickly becomes clear that he hasn’t thought through the implications of his words, and he’s just casting about to see what people want to hear.

In any case, Trump did such a bad job of reading the room that his own people are going against him. On Monday, Speaker of the House Paul Ryan said, “We are extremely worried about the consequences of a trade war and are urging the White House to not advance with this plan,” a spokeswoman for Mr. Ryan said in a statement. “The new tax reform law has boosted the economy and we certainly don’t want to jeopardize those gains.” Meanwhile, Trump’s sudden anti-gun posture, blaming video games for our violent culture, is even alienating some of the alt-right “Gamergate” types who were the first to support him. A Vox article shows the responses on a Reddit board:  “I don’t even know what the fuck he’s even doing at this point.” “Obvious conservative virtue signaling… Also a reminder that the enemy of your enemy is NOT your friend.”

Well, I coulda told you that.

Wow, Trumpniks. It’s almost as if whoring yourselves out to the most disgusting creature imaginable just to get the White House back wasn’t such a bargain after all.

This is what happens when you sleep with grunting pigs in the midden. You wake up with fecal matter and trichinosis.

Oh, if only somebody had warned you. And by somebody, I mean GODDAMN FUCKING EVERYBODY.

It gets to how, over and over again, I have pondered why Trump would keep saying “we’re going to build a wall, and Mexico is gonna pay for it”, and people would actually believe him. Now he’s willing to hold up a budget because we won’t pay Mexico’s bill on border security, and the cult still believes it. And I realized that belief isn’t really the point here. It’s telling people a lie that makes them feel better. It doesn’t matter if it can actually be achieved. The goal is the myth (as Mussolini would put it). It’s gotten to where it’s a “greatest hits” moment at Trump rallies, a call and response where Trump goes “we’re gonna build a wall, and…” the audience yells “MEXICO WILL PAY FOR IT!”

The call and response should really be:

“I’m going to fuck you up the ass, and…”
“YOUR DICK IS WRAPPED IN SANDPAPER!”
“Better believe it.”

All they want to do is vent. They support a certain party in power because it tells them what they want to hear, and because they want to be on the side that’s winning, even if that party is fucking them up the ass. After all, that’s what they expect government to do anyway, but at least they’re getting fucked by their “team.”

This is the problem with the Rod Drehers and Pat Buchanans of the world who cluck that the world is going to Hell (perhaps literally) because no one practices religion, morals and discipline, but think the country should be run by the most worldly, immoral and downright LAZY politician in our history. Hey guys: Unlike you, I like Andrew Dice Clay. As a comedian. But unlike you, I don’t think he should be the president.

The other aspect of this, and here I think Rod Dreher would agree with me, is that we worship government as God, or more specifically we put government in the same place in the social order that we had placed God before the Age of Enlightenment. But this is why the conservative model of government is doomed to fail. That model is that the moral arbiters of American life will take control of government and guide the people to righteousness. What happens (especially now) is that a certain unscrupulous faction will take over government, and because the moral arbiters worship government as government, they mold their morality to the people in power rather than the other way around.

It would seem, given the secularism of the Left and the outright deification of the State by Leninists, that state-worship is a Left problem that only the Right opposes, but it may be that the worship of government as God – or the representation of God on Earth – is the conservative goal. After all, the common point separating government before the Enlightenment from government afterward is the concept of separating church and state. The union of Church and State was the pre-liberal standard of government. It goes back to a concept commonly expressed in Latin: Cuius regio, eius religio (whose region, his religion).  When a ruler chose to convert to Christianity (or convert to Protestantism), his kingdom officially followed suit. It was by this principle that missionaries did more than soldiers to convert the barbarians of Europe in the Dark Ages, but it was also by this principle that Europe had the Thirty Years War and most of its bloodletting before the French Revolution. Whereas the opposite principle, the separation of church and state, is the reason that Jews and Muslims, Catholics and Protestants are able to coexist in New York City (and other American communities) without killing each other. Indeed, I would go so far as to say that this principle is why Americans are generally more religious than modern Europeans, because in our tradition, religion is a matter of conscience, not a chore or a political affiliation.

If Americans treat government as God, then libertarians are government-atheist, or at the most accommodating, government-skeptic. By this analogy, that would make Democrats government-Catholic and Republicans government-Torquemada.

As far as where all this is going, and what it means for the Republican Party to turn itself into the Party of Trump, I direct the reader to a must-see article in The New Yorker about former MI6 spy and current intelligence analyst for hire Christopher Steele. There is much that has already been said with regard to Steele, Paul Manafort and other aspects of the overall Trump investigation. But in the article, there are points to emphasize:

Steele had not started investigating Trump solely because the Clinton campaign hired him. Some of his investigations were years prior, including the corruption investigations against FIFA (the international soccer association). There was a suspicion that Russia had won its World Cup bid due to bribes, and it turned out that one of the figures being indicted for this (by the US Justice Department) was Chuck Blazer, a FIFA official who had a high-class apartment in Trump Tower. After this, the FBI hired Steele’s company to help investigate a money-laundering ring being run by a Russian national out of Trump Tower. And in 2016, Steele’s company was first hired to get opposition research on Trump by Paul Singer, an anti-Trump Republican who gave up the project once Trump secured the Republican nomination. It was only after that point that Fusion GPS, a company hired by the Hillary Clinton campaign, took up the investigation and asked Steele to collaborate. It was only after Steele compiled the information in “the dossier” that he started to agitate for his contacts to work against Trump. Far from trying to conjure a narrative out of coincidental facts, Steele almost didn’t see the big picture because it didn’t occur to him.

While some of the more credible Trump-friendly experts, like Senators Chuck Grassley and Lindsey Graham, or writer David Garrow, had cause to question Christopher Steele’s motives, a former National Security Council employee told The New Yorker that “if Steele had not shared his findings (with the FBI), he might have been accused of dereliction or a coverup.” Contrary to the positions of (say) Devin Nunes, Steele and Fusion did not actually tell the Clinton campaign that Steele had gone to the FBI. A top Clinton-campaign person told the reporter, “If I’d known the F.B.I. was investigating Trump, I would have been shouting it from the rooftops!”

And on that score, the Barack Obama Administration, which obviously supported Clinton, was at pains to avoid tipping the scale, mainly because of the Hatch Act which forbids government employees to use their position to influence coming elections. But it was also because Trump and the Republicans had heated up the public discussion and introduced the idea that the election would be illegitimate if he lost, even if it were due to opposition research. By August 2016, the Administration had already been informed by the CIA that Vladimir Putin was interfering in the election on behalf of Trump. In early September, Obama tried to get leaders of both parties to issue a bipartisan statement against Russia’s meddling. “He reasoned that if both parties signed on the statement couldn’t be attacked as political.” By this time Congressional leaders had also been informed of the intelligence. But Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell refused to sign on to the statement. Without that bipartisan endorsement, Obama said nothing about what he knew before the election.

So no matter how much Trump whines that Obama never did anything about Russia, that is the reason why he didn’t. And both Trump and McConnell know this.

One does not do so much to cover up evidence when there’s nothing to cover up. After all, Hillary Clinton proved to be famously inept at concealing information, and yet a Republican-controlled Congress found it impossible to confirm criminal action when she was Secretary of State during the Benghazi disaster. The fact that the same Congress is going to such lengths to stop any investigation of Donald Trump’s Russia connection, or possibly related matters, like his tax returns, means that they have cause to suspect they know much more is going on. And the issue thus becomes less the Trump family’s culpability than the Republican Party’s culpability. If it seems odd that such an avowedly patriotic party would go so far against the government to defend a leader who is associated with both the Russians and organized crime in general, it’s because their whole concept of “patriotism” is based on Führerprinzip and an authoritarian, anti-liberal principle of government. And if someone presented the most blatant, lid-tight legal case that their Dear Leader was compromised by an even more crooked Russian autocrat, they would probably love him more, because he represents their inner spirit more than liberalism, libertarianism or the political “establishment.”

I am a bit tired of going over the obvious with how screwed up modern conservatism is, but if my theory is correct, the whole system is dysfunctional. Certainly, Democrats are not as crazed and power-hungry as Republicans, but then they haven’t been in the wilderness as long, and moreover, they are still under the impression that the system is built on their political premises.

And in this regard, I would like to make a request.

This Saturday in Las Vegas, I attended the Libertarian Party of Nevada convention for 2018, where we nominated candidates for Senate and US Congress. It was a good event. I think we had enough people to fill a punk rock bar this year. Anyway, the spokesman went over party activity for the previous year and noted that we have reached a point in membership where we are just 28 registered voters short of 1 percent of state voter rolls, where 1 percent would automatically qualify us for ballot access in the next election.

So if you are one of the maybe five people who read this blog, I ask you to consider registering as a Libertarian. I consider this a valid goal in itself, but there is also a practical consideration. If you are to the right of Hillary Clinton, you are going to need a political party to represent your positions in the next few elections, given that the current “official” right-wing party is in danger of having most of its leadership indicted for obstruction of justice.

REVIEW: Black Panther

It is testimony to the Pulp roots of the superhero genre that in Marvel Comics, the most technologically advanced nation on Earth is a traditional African kingdom that has never been colonized by whites, and no one considers this unusual.

The Black Panther character was introduced to the Marvel Cinematic Universe in Captain America: Civil War, and while he wasn’t the center of the action, Chadwick Boseman set the stage with a formidable portrayal of Prince T’Challa, seeking justice after the death of his father. This leads to the Black Panther solo movie, in which T’Challa formally claims the throne of Wakanda.

I had mentioned in my review of Wonder Woman that while Wonder Woman may be a feminist icon, the movie wasn’t precisely a feminist film, because the character had not grown up under patriarchy.  The nation of Wakanda poses a similar issue with regard to race.  The main drama in Black Panther comes from T’Challa’s would-be usurper, the mercenary code-named Killmonger (Michael B. Jordan), who in his character depicts the contrast between being African and African-American.  Killmonger’s personal history also brings up a state secret of Wakanda: in the MCU, in order to keep “colonizers” from exploiting the country’s wealth, the kings of Wakanda hide their country’s technology and use holograms and other tricks to convince the West that Wakanda is an (ahem) shithole country.  But this means that Wakanda is not using its resources to address the civil wars and refugee crises of its neighbors.  Right now, politicians in the United States and the European Union demonize immigrants and refugees from “developing” countries as being not only a threat to national security but the traditional way of life.  The fact that this issue is posed by a movie with an almost entirely black cast is the most subversive thing about the film, from both a left-wing and right-wing standpoint.

In this regard, Black Panther has the now-standard MCU post-credits scene, but this scene, in which T’Challa addresses the United Nations office in Vienna, isn’t simply an add-on Easter egg but the entire point of the movie.

I didn’t think that Black Panther was the most awesome movie ever – at this point in the MCU, all the super-tech didn’t impress me as much as the uber-rhinos and Hanuman warriors – but it did what it needed to do.

Show respect and bow down.

 

The St. Valentine’s Day Massacre

A well-regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.

-The Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution

“Follow the money.”
-Jesse “the Governor” Ventura

I was going to say something of a more general nature about politics this week, but then of course a 19-year old shot up the school from which he was expelled, killing 17 and wounding 14 more. And of course this is setting off another round of disingenuous calls to have a “conversation” about “gun safety.” Or, “just do what Australia did.” What, tell the vast majority of American gun owners that they’re obliged to turn in their weapons when they didn’t do anything wrong? I don’t think so, Tim.

At the same time, the right-wing apologists for gun rights, rather than address the issue of gun access, want to say the issue is the mental illness of a given shooter, when the “mentally ill” tag is conflating an emotional state with a psychiatric diagnosis that most pundits are not in position to make.

But something else that was pointed out in the news was that the killer decided to commit his crime on Valentine’s Day. So oh no, from now on, Valentine’s Day is going to be forever more associated with mass gun violence.

Except for those who read history.

The St. Valentine’s Day massacre was a Chicago gang hit in 1929 in which only seven men were killed. And the shooters were using Tommy guns.

I bring this up to point out that this is hardly the only era of American history with mass gun violence. At the same time, things were different. The government and federal law enforcement were determined to take down organized crime, perhaps because the thugs in question were mainly Italian, Jewish and Irish. But the organization of the gangs made them easier to investigate and target. Whereas the problem now is that we don’t know when any given individual is going to buy a weapon and use it to kill people. According to a Politico article (published after the Las Vegas shooting), the number of shootings in America has not increased relative to previous decades, but the death toll at each incident has. “Research shows that the number of victims killed and wounded are the strongest predictors of the extent to which a mass killing gets reported by the news media. Recent growth in the number of catastrophic mass public shootings—combined with the extensive, wall-to-wall news coverage that accompanies these tragedies—likely accounts for the commonly held misconception that mass shootings are now more frequent. ” The article continues: “But the available evidence suggests that strengthening or weakening gun laws would not significantly affect the incidence or severity of mass public shootings. For example, studies examining bans on large-capacity magazines and right-to-carry concealed firearms laws have found they would have little or no effect on mass public shootings.”

The socialist-left approach of course is to make decisions for everyone and deny a right to private arms, Second Amendment be damned. I prefer the Adam Smith  approach of acknowledging ulterior motives and channeling them into constructive directions.

In this case, studies on the private sales of guns before the 21st century are fairly lacking, but we can look at the history of the National Rifle Association (NRA) as a primary lobbyist for the gun industry, ostensibly for the sake of the Second Amendment but ultimately for the sake of the firearms industry and its continued business. That pro-industry stance is itself fairly recent. In the 19th century, the NRA was founded for the Second Amendment purpose of giving proper training to those who would serve in the militia. In 1934, NRA President Karl Frederick testified to Congress, “I have never believed in the general practice of carrying weapons. I seldom carry one. I have when I felt it was desirable to do so for my own protection. I know that applies in most of the instances where guns are used effectively in self-defense or in places of business and in the home. I do not believe in the general promiscuous toting of guns. I think it should be sharply restricted and only under licenses.” In fact, Frederick made this statement during the debate on passage of the National Firearms Act of 1934, which was inspired partly by the St. Valentine’s Day Massacre and other acts of gangster violence. But later, after the passage of the Gun Control Act of 1968 (which also had NRA support), a more right-wing group started mobilizing and took over the NRA leadership, after which the NRA’s membership more than tripled by 1985.  Since then the NRA has developed one of the strongest political action committees in Washington.

Way back in 2012, the Washington Post reported that President Obama was “the best thing that ever happened to the firearm industry.” This was as measured by the number of federal background checks on gun purchases, which were about double the amount during George W. Bush’s first term. Prior to Bush, the gun industry was actually facing a decline because of a robust economy and declining fears of crime. In a related matter, the article noted that gun sales spike after a mass shooting. One gun store owner told the Christian Science Monitor: “Normally what happens—and I’ve been doing this for 30 years—is whenever they start talking about gun control on the news and they start pushing that, people have a tendency to think they’re going to take away their right to buy the gun, and that usually spurs sales”.

But if anything, since Obama left office and a Republican took over, the gun industry has the opposite problem. Several outlets have reported that while gun sales in the US are still strong, one gun manufacturer had a 48.5 percent drop in sales from one quarter to the next, with The Guardian reporting that overall sales fell by $100 million.  Just this weekend, historic manufacturer Remington had to reach a deal for bankruptcy protection. According to UPI, “When a presidential candidate is perceived as pro-gun control, people tend to buy more guns in case laws take hold that prevent them from doing so in the near future. But when a politician appears to be against gun control, there’s not as much urgency to stock up on weapons.”

Like the rest of the conservative agenda, support for guns has become less mainstream as that position has associated with disreputable characters like mass shooters and Trump Administration officials. So the industry, like the Republican Party, has had to substitute loyalty for numbers and focus on the people who are convinced that government is the enemy. But what happens to that posture when government is no longer the enemy? For that matter, what happens when it is?

Everybody was so hopping mad that Obama was going to take our guns. How many gun control laws did Congress pass after Sandy Hook? None. How many guns did the Obama Administration confiscate from gun stores? None.

The most consequential thing that Obama and his (brief) Democratic majority accomplished was to pass the Affordable Care Act, which was of course the most radical and socialist thing ever, except for the public option, single-payer or any of the other national health care schemes that you have in Leninist countries like Switzerland. In fact, the ACA resembles not only Romneycare in Massachusetts but a 2004 article by Ron Bailey in Reason magazine advocating that we “solve” the healthcare crisis by making private health insurance mandatory. And I remember this because at the time, when I brought this idea up to liberals on the Internet – before Democrats embraced it – they attacked it as a right-wing think tank giveaway to insurance companies and Big Pharma. And as it turned out, they were right! It’s just that that plan was the only thing that Democrats could get through their own centrist caucus.

It’s of a piece of why they don’t push “gun safety” legislation, or try and get rid of the Electoral College, or call for impeaching Trump, or even call for the government to make Trump release his tax returns. Democrats would of course argue that there’s no point in doing so when they aren’t the majority and don’t have the White House, but then won’t ask themselves why they lost the majority in the first place.

But then, Democrats are the sensible people. Unlike Republicans, they’re not going to keep pushing crazy, radical legislation if it’s likely to get shot down in Congress, which is to say, if there’s any likelihood of that at all. After all, they wouldn’t want the party that worships a pussy-grabbing race baiter who praised the Charlottesville Nazis to brand them as being extreme.

In his inaugural address, President Ronald Reagan said, “In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem. From time to time we’ve been tempted to believe that society has become too complex to be managed by self-rule, that government by an elite group is superior to government for, by, and of the people. Well, if no one among us is capable of governing himself, then who among us has the capacity to govern someone else? All of us together, in and out of government, must bear the burden.” In other words, in the context of Reagan’s time, in which government was built on the assumptions of Democrats and liberal Republicans, government was the problem. “Government is the problem” is not an a priori value. And if an individual is not capable of governing himself, then why should such a person be trusted with the government? The problem with conservatives is that they have disregarded the context of Reagan’s statement. Now, the government we are looking at is based on the assumptions of Big Government Republicans. And if one looks at the big picture and concludes that in almost all cases, the problem with government is the Republican Party, that conclusion may encourage Democrats to think that there is no longer anything to lose in being angry and radical and nothing to gain in continuing to play it safe and be marshmallows.

Gun owners and conservatives are not completely synonymous groups, but insofar as the gun lobby/NRA is synonymous with conservatism, they’ve put themselves in a box. Either continue on their present course and alienate the rest of the country (and incidentally lower gun sales) or let the Democrats win to rile up the customer base, and in the meantime hope that Democrats are just as useless as they were the last time they were in power.

Of course considering how fixated both major parties are on the symbolic and real powers of the president, it isn’t enough for the Republicans to lose one or both houses of Congress this year. For gun sellers to keep their customers angry and motivated, they have to work to make sure that Donald Trump is a one-term president.

It makes sense in that what passes for conservatism these days is simply a grievance industry unsuited to governance and oriented solely towards opposition. The longer that conservatives have to be the government, they not only have to keep defending the indefensible, their escalating bullshit reaches a level that not even some of their biggest partisans can keep swallowing it.

(Or, conservatives could do what Reagan did and present an economic and cultural agenda that appeals to a majority of voters. But I guess that’s just too hard.)

So you know what you have to do, gun lovers. Do it for capitalism. And America.

Thoughts on Horseshoe Theory

Did I watch the State of the Union live? Nah. If I was going to waste time watching a badly-staged, insincere show of virtue that only confirmed the opposite, I would’ve watched the Grammy Awards.

But of course the main story leading up to this weekend was #ReleaseTheMemo, in which Republicans were huffing and puffing about the scandal of a biased FBI investigation against Trump, and Democrats were huffing and puffing that the release of FBI decisions was a threat to national security.

The effort was part of a somewhat successful campaign to put the prosecution on trial in the court of public opinion. (Hey, it worked for O.J. Simpson!) But it turned out to be much ado about nothing, for both sides. In terms of national security, the memo didn’t reveal much that we didn’t know. As the memo was analyzed, journalists realized that it relied on a presentation of Carter Page being targeted for his association with the Trump campaign (when it turned out that the FBI was looking at him before Trump even ran for president) and the idea that the Robert Mueller investigation is based entirely on the “Steele dossier” (when it turns out that there is at least one more dossier, and investigations proceeded mainly on suspicion of Trump advisor George Papadopoulos).

All this fails to explain why the whole investigation must be thrown out as “fruit of the poison tree” solely on the grounds of anti-Trump sympathy on the part of some players, but that demand is not automatically invalidated on the grounds that it is justified solely on pro-Trump sentiment. As Julian Sanchez, a senior fellow at the right-wing Cato Institute put it,  “Honestly, this reads like something you’d put together to *sound* scandalous to someone who isn’t going to parse it closely. ”

Oh gee. I wonder who that would be?

Like it matters, though. It’s of a piece with how Trump, simply by being leader of the Republicans, gets the mob to follow along as he redefines what being a Republican is. First Trump said that John McCain wasn’t a war hero. And Republicans had to go along with it. Then he said that (black) athletes were disrespecting the national anthem. And all of a sudden, Joe Sixpack started boycotting the NFL. Now Republicans are supposed to believe that the FBI – the J. Edgar Hoover organization that is more responsible for Trump’s election victory than any Russian skullduggery – is unpatriotic and a threat to the rule of law. (‘Unpatriotic’ meaning ‘does not worship Trump’ and ‘rule of law’ meaning ‘whatever wild hair is up Trump’s ass.’)

What’s next? Who knows? I’m thinking next week, Trump is going to announce that he is female and is undergoing the process of transition, at which point all the Republicans in Congress will fall on top of each other to be the first one to get castrated on the grounds that masculinity is now “gay.”

But this dynamic gets to a more abstract discussion I had recently with a left-wing Facebook friend. He had posted an article from Quartz about how Richard Spencer and other professional racists are “targeting disgruntled white male lefties to join their movement.” For one thing, the article quotes white nationalist speaker Eli Mosley in saying: “We’ve almost literally drained the market of libertarians.” But I could have told him this. I’ve addressed that subject at length with two detailed posts. In any case, you can’t get many libertarian recruits for the same reason that libertarians have neither taken off with the Libertarian Party nor taken over the Republican Party: There just aren’t that many of us in the first place. But the article went on to mention how the rightist groups were trying to poach leftists using their own language, especially invoking the common enemy of “corporate neoliberalism”. And my friend said in his assessment of the article, “I understand a bit of how this works from back when I was a conspiracy nut. While these days I think ‘horseshoe theory’ is full of shit, from the standpoint of a poor white dude who is not particularly well educated in politics, it *appears* true. What rightwing groups do is create a common enemy and sort of set your focus in another direction. … It’s just a more subtle version of what the far right has done for a long time. Bait and switch. ”

And my first response was, “To the extent that horseshoe theory is BS, it’s because authoritarians at both ‘extremes’ have more in common with each other than they have in common with classical liberals or moderates. But then, that’s why people like me use the ‘classical’ qualifier, because it’s becoming more and more clear that the Left never cared for real liberalism. That’s the main thing Marxists had in common with the blood-and-soil types.”

My friend responded, “I don’t think they have ‘more in common’ so much as they have *weird* things in common, which stick out to moderates. I mean, obviously any group that considers the status quo in need of immediate overhaul is going to have that in common. Any group that thinks the government is illegitimate will hold that in common.
“But those don’t define the left or right as much as they do extremism in general. If there were true ‘radical centrists’ that were actually uncomfortable with the status quo, they would have these traits. But the statement that radical groups are radical is never as profound as it seems to those who just discover it. It doesn’t change that the goals of the extreme left and right are opposite, and their policy preferences are irreconcilable.”

This was a topic I wanted to go over in light of my prior observations.

I have read that the problem with “horseshoe theory” is not merely that it oversimplifies politics to say that each political wing becomes more alike as they become more extreme, but that it discounts the fundamental differences between Right and Left in their motivations and goals. But if moderates fail to grasp the real political differences between two extremes, those differences likewise seem immaterial if you are a victim of extremism. It doesn’t matter to me whether I get thrown in the concentration camp because I’m gay, or Jewish, or atheist, or Muslim, or just because I didn’t follow whatever the fashion of political correctness was last week. The result will be the same.

As an example, a lot of leftists will excuse the Cuban government under Fidel Castro on the grounds that they created free education and health care. To me, “free education and health care” strikes me as the Left’s version of “at least Mussolini made the trains run on time.” And I say this because social democracies in Europe managed to develop support systems and health care without also putting gays and religious dissenters in prison. Apologists for the Castros will tell us that the Cuban regime militarized largely to defend against the hostility of the United States and its boycott of the island. But in response to that embargo, Cuba became an economic part of the Soviet bloc, and when the USSR ended, opened trade relations with wealthy Western nations that ignored the embargo. Leftists will also say that Cuba was a small, poor Latin American country with no resources to develop itself without socialism. But Costa Rica is a Latin American country with less natural resources, and it had both universal health care and a multiparty democracy in the 1940s. If the motivations of leftism are to give power to the people and create a more equitable standard of living, liberal and left-socialist governments have done so in several cases without becoming Cuban or Soviet-style regimes. But if you want to put gays and religious people in prison, then Cuba is not a failure but a success.

This is the practical reason why we should not use the ends to justify the means, because ultimately the means are ends in themselves.

Now for a more relevant example: It was reported last month that the Koch brothers are going to spend 400 million dollars on the 2018 midterms to preserve the Republicans’ majority in both houses of Congress. Previously they had spent $20 million in 2017 to run media campaigns and support efforts to pass the tax bill. In the CNBC article on the Kochs’ support network, it was also mentioned that they sponsor efforts at prison reform and also supports Trump’s recently announced idea of creating a path to citizenship for Dreamers while also opposing their drive to end chain migration for families. In the past, the Koch family were instrumental in the development of the Libertarian Party (David Koch ran as the running mate of Ed Clark in 1980) and also helped found the Cato Institute. Several of their positions (in support of immigrants, criminal justice reform and civil liberties, for instance) are worth supporting in themselves but are at odds with the positions of most Republicans. However Koch Industries is still based in fossil fuel production and the Koch network is actively against not only climate change legislation but any attempts by government or private enterprise to create energy alternatives.  Moreover, for the sake of specific goals that coincide with libertarianism, the Kochs give monetary and other support to conservative groups with questionable goals, for example contributing to the American Legislative Exchange Council, which has sponsored voter ID laws in several states to restrict voting. This would be one thing if the agenda was simply economic libertarianism or Paul Ryan-style fiscal policy (which liberals would hate in any case). But as the vehicle of the Republican Party becomes more and more enslaved to the whims of Donald Trump, whatever social or even economic libertarianism could be achieved through conservatism will be undermined by the much broader movement towards authoritarianism. Given that the Kochs, unlike most Republicans, know enough about the Libertarian Party and the libertarian movement to know the difference between libertarianism and conservatism, they had the choice to use their wealth and influence to organize and grow a party that could challenge a problematic conservatism. The fact that they do not indicates that instead of trying to replace a dysfunctional system, they would rather maintain that system in order to serve their short-term purposes.

In the last election, right-wingers had a choice: vote for Trump (which the majority did), vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson (which I did) or vote for Hillary Clinton (which a lot of NeverTrumpers, even Penn Jillette, did). Each choice implied different value judgments and bargains as to what package deal was acceptable in politics. If for instance you seriously believe that personhood begins at conception and therefore abortion is always murder, you will find it almost impossible to deal with the Democratic Party or even the Libertarian Party. But if you align with the Republicans, you now know that you are supporting people who place cult of personality above the rule of law.

And from the left-wing perspective, being “pro-choice” and pro-woman often means putting yourself in contradictory positions, for instance taking money from Harvey Weinstein for Democratic campaigns.

In judging political alignments, that is, what party or general platform an individual chooses, the tendency seems to be that people fixate on a few issues (like abortion, or taxes) and adjust all their other positions around them. At that point, political actions are simply a matter of what one is willing to do and how far one will justify the overall goal. This might not be done for the sake of an extreme position, but it is possible to be led into extremism for the sake of the position. In this country at least, that usually occurs because of negative motivations and a desire to stop the opposing faction rather than promote a favored one. If there is one thing that extremists of both Left and Right have in common, it is not a vision of society but a hatred of “bourgeois” moderate liberalism and the process of negotiation in a representative democracy. This may be why the racists in the Quartz article had reason to think that by bagging on neoliberalism and capitalists that they could get recruits from the Left who would otherwise have nothing in common with them. After all, historically they’d done it before.

So in reviewing horseshoe theory, I think it’s fairly clear that the two political wings can both end in authoritarianism, regardless of apparent first motives. However, horseshoe theory doesn’t strictly apply in the current case, because it doesn’t explain why the slide to authoritarianism happens in the current context.

I again return to the point that “polarization”, at least in America, doesn’t work the way it does according to conventional wisdom. The process in our two-party system has been that years before Trump, the Tea Party and other factors purified the Republican Party of “RINOs” and even serious conservatives (like Utah’s Bob Bennett) because they weren’t following the conservative version of political correctness. Trump is simply the culmination of this. The result was that in a two-party system, people kicked out of one party normally go to the other one (the Democrats) even when that really isn’t a good fit for them. The long-term result was a dilution of whatever appeal Democrats had to the hard left and working class, and increased the perception among people like the Clintons that “neoliberal” friendliness to the elites was the way to go, if for no other reason than that it got them campaign money. As a tangential point, I bring up my theory that this is why the “stuff your principles and vote for the lesser evil” attitude, promoted by the Democrats most of the time but especially in 2016, was counterproductive and actually played into Trump’s hands. Because a lot of the moderates and NeverTrump right-wingers (like myself) had quit the Republicans precisely because we rejected that binary logic, and apparently so did a lot of left-wingers. The kind of people who did embrace binary logic were the kind of people who stuffed their qualms and decided to vote for Trump. The Republicans have gambled on having fewer but more committed voters whereas the Democrats have a theoretically larger voter base but fewer actual votes when it counts. And as we see, the gamble has paid off, not so much in presidential races (until now) but in state and down-ballot races that gave Republicans their legislative majorities, which magnify the effects of a Republican presidency and stymie the goals of a Democratic one.

The problem is less the differences between Left and Right and more a matter of what approach the political environment rewards.

This means that the other point is that it doesn’t matter so much whether a party is “extreme.” If you’re not going to uphold standards when the president is not a tyrant, and his party is moderate, you can’t expect standards to be upheld when the Leader is thoroughly crooked, his party is openly authoritarian, and their emotional and political investment in him is that much deeper. Which to me means that the cause of our current political moment is not to get this country back to “normal.” Because the prior normal sucked, the normal was dysfunctional, the normal is what got us to this point, and the goal must be to get us to something better than the previous norm.

 

On Andrew Sullivan

Based on his recent columns in New York Magazine and the reactions to them, I’m sure that when liberals look at Andrew Sullivan’s latest piece, with the self-explanatory title “The Gay Rights Movement Is Undoing Its Best Work” they will accuse him of overreacting in such a way as to be an even bigger overreaction.

Not that Sullivan is above criticism. I think he protests too much when he says that the gay rights movement of his day succeeded by being “not leftist.” This would be news to a lot of people. Indeed, it was mainly Sullivan’s argument that cast gay marriage rights as a conservative position. But that was back when that was still possible. Ironically the very success of the gay rights movement in mainstreaming the community may be why the (non-libertarian) Right is so extreme now. When your movement is not based on ideas so much as grievance against “the establishment”, anti-wokeness is a badge of honor. In any event when Sullivan says: “We emphasized those things that united gays and straights, and we celebrated institutions of integration — such as marriage rights and open military service. We portrayed ourselves as average citizens seeking merely the same rights and responsibilities as everyone else”, that agenda was in common with the previous strain of mainstream liberalism that focused on civil rights for racial minorities. In this regard someone like Martin Luther King was “not-leftist” only in the relative sense of not being Malcolm X.

But Sullivan does have a point. The previous concept of liberalism was something that the average person could relate to. It created empathy for people who had previously been “othered.” This is where a not-leftist like myself would point out that King wanted people to focus not on the color of one’s skin but on the content of one’s character. In that respect, liberal reform advocated not just a government responsibility but a moral aspiration. Insofar as there was anything conservative about this sentiment, it was when Ronald Reagan applied his “morning in America” rhetoric. This optimism worked because it brought Americans together and won a majority for the party in charge, regardless of which party that was. Now of course, Donald Trump says “America First” and “Make America Great Again” but with the implication that it was only great before all those foreigners showed up. He won only because he got just enough votes in just enough states to win the Electoral College. The goal for him, and Republicans in general, is to divide and not unite. And the Left is doing much the same thing. Sullivan says that the advocates for gays and other sexual minorities are “rhetorically as much about race and gender as it is about sexual orientation (“intersectionality”), prefers alternatives to marriage to marriage equality, sees white men as ‘problematic,’ masculinity as toxic, gender as fluid, and race as fundamental. They have no desire to seem ‘virtually normal’; they are contemptuous of ‘respectability politics’ — which means most politics outside the left. … ‘Live and let live’ became: ‘If you don’t believe gender is nonbinary, you’re a bigot.”

This ties into where Sullivan changes subject to bring up a BBC interview between journalist Cathy Newman and right-wing Canadian professor (apparently they do exist) Jordan Peterson. The interview was dissected that much more thoroughly by Conor Friedersdorf at The Atlantic. The part of the dialogue that cuts to the chase went like this:

Newman: Is gender equality desirable?

Peterson: If it means equality of outcome then it is almost certainly undesirable. That’s already been demonstrated in Scandinavia. Men and women won’t sort themselves into the same categories if you leave them to do it of their own accord. It’s 20 to 1 female nurses to male, something like that. And approximately the same male engineers to female engineers. That’s a consequence of the free choice of men and women in the societies that have gone farther than any other societies to make gender equality the purpose of the law. Those are ineradicable differences––you can eradicate them with tremendous social pressure, and tyranny, but if you leave men and women to make their own choices you will not get equal outcomes.

Newman: So you’re saying that anyone who believes in equality, whether you call them feminists or whatever you want to call them, should basically give up because it ain’t going to happen.

Peterson: Only if they’re aiming at equality of outcome.

Newman: So you’re saying give people equality of opportunity, that’s fine.

Peterson: It’s not only fine, it’s eminently desirable for everyone, for individuals as well as societies.

Newman: But still women aren’t going to make it. That’s what you’re really saying.

In this case and others, Peterson went into very detailed examples for why certain social inequities occur (as he puts it, on the standard that ‘equality of outcome’ is more important than equal opportunity) and gave a multifaceted explanation for why different results occur, indeed why they are more likely in a social-democrat policy where the government gives women more benefits and opportunities. And at least once Newman reduces his response to the assumption that things can only be a certain way, and telegraphs that her conclusion is based on her predecided opinion of his position instead of what he actually said. This is… I believe the word I’m looking for is “essentialist.”

This sort of thing is why a lot of men hear the phrase “mansplaining” and think of it very ironically. Because mansplaining, like “white privilege”, is referring to a real thing but in a very counterproductive way. Mansplaining is a gender-specific example of a universal vice: namely, interrupting, acting like you know better, and presenting the other person’s argument to them without listening to what it actually is. When you see this interview, you can see that it’s possible for a woman to do the same thing to a man. It’s happened to me lots of times. But when someone cops this attitude with me in a political debate, I don’t call it “mansplaining,” I call it “arguing with the imaginary libertarian in your head.”

Like when such people tell me, “there’s no point in voting third-party because of our first-past-the-post system.” As if I, and all the other people working to change the system, aren’t already aware of this. I’m sure that in 19th Century Russia, there were “liberals” telling their friends, “yes, we all want reforms, but the Czar is an absolute monarch of an autocratic government. Whaddya gonna do?

In the Atlantic piece, Friedersdorf goes to another exchange:

Newman: Aren’t you just whipping people up into a state of anger?

Peterson: Not at all.

Newman: Divisions between men and women. You’re stirring things up.

“Actually, one of the most important things this interview illustrates—one reason it is worth noting at length—is how Newman repeatedly poses as if she is holding a controversialist accountable, when in fact, for the duration of the interview, it is she that is ‘stirring things up’ and ‘whipping people into a state of anger”, Friedersdorf says.

Where this ties into Sullivan’s post is the rejection of the very concept of common ground or good-faith argument. Neither is there a possibility of arriving at the truth beyond “my truth” or my position. Friedersdorf points out that Newman’s style of confrontation is common not only on social media platforms but also on Fox News, and elsewhere in his column, Sullivan goes back to his recent theme on the destructiveness of social media like Facebook and Twitter. The reason that this attitude is a problem for the Left is the same reason that it is embraced by the Trumpniks and Fox News: While various disenfranchised groups have greater numbers and influence than ever, this is still a white-majority country that is still broadly right-of-center, and while “identity politics” may be necessary in a lot of cases, it encourages the feeling that whites and conservatives need identity politics too. You can win – barely – by dividing people when you already have a majority. When you’re the minority, dividing people keeps you a minority.

Where I disagree with Sullivan’s piece this week is where he says: “The Trump era is, I fear, not just about this hideous embarrassment of a president. It’s also fueled by a reaction of many ordinary people to the excesses of the social-justice left — on immigration, race, gender, and sexual orientation. ” This is true up to a point. But he fails to stress that if the Left is pushing the Right to radicalism, the reverse is also true. I am pretty sure that we would not be so wrapped up in the #metoo moment if Hillary Clinton were president, for instance. But then, that would be largely because liberals would assume they’d cured sexism the way President Obama cured racism.

I may have said this before, but what liberals need to figure out is that if the only thing that mattered about the 2016 election was making liberals cry, Donald Trump would have won the popular vote. What conservatives need to figure out is that Trump did not win the popular vote because making liberals cry was not the only thing that mattered. And if one can concede that the side you hate has aspects that are objectively awful, you still have a moral responsibility in how you react to that. A hint: You do not improve the system by citing the awfulness of Them and then making Us that much worse.

We don’t have a cycle of Thesis and Antithesis reaching a higher Synthesis. We just have a cycle where Thesis and Antithesis continue to make each other worse. At best, the situation is where the US is like a sailboat, and Left and Right are constantly fighting each other for control of the mast, and every so often, this struggle causes the boom to swing around and whack one of them silly.

In my About page, I’d mentioned that Andrew Sullivan’s blog was my primary influence in starting this site. This was not because I’d always agreed with him. Indeed, on The Daily Dish he had said quite a few things that attracted a lot of dispute and rebuttal, and to his credit he was able to post and respond to a lot of these comments (without actually having a comments section). Sullivan was able to admit, in real time over a course of years, where he had been wrong (for example, in supporting the Iraq invasion) and where he needed to take responsibility for that. That is far more than most conservatives have ever been willing to do. It seems to be more than a lot of liberals are willing to do. I gravitated to Sullivan’s blog because his willingness to question things and still present a civil platform was something the culture needed. It still is. Especially now.