People I Can Be Thankful For

If the rule you followed brought you to this, of what use was the rule?

-Cormac McCarthy, No Country For Old Men

Of course this is the week that we’re all supposed to give thanks for what good fortune we had this year and to specify what exactly we are thankful for. Off the top of my head, I can give thanks to at least two people this year.

The first, perhaps not surprisingly, is Donald Trump. The Republican Party has failed to gain more than ten seats in a Congressional midterm where a Democrat was president, and Trumpnik Republican candidates have largely failed to win key races for state government. This historic failure to perform is almost entirely because the Party felt the need to stay in Trump’s good graces and so agreed to nominate election-liar candidates like Adam Laxalt for US Senator in Nevada, Doug Mastriano as Governor in Pennsylvania, and pretty much every Republican in Arizona. All of whom lost.

Now, of course Trump was already planning to announce his wonderful re-election campaign to be Vladimir Putin’s Viceroy for Russian North America, and he was hoping he would get a huge boost from supporting all these candidates who were supposed to sweep against an unpopular Democratic Party and Biden Administration. It turns out, there’s one thing more unpopular than the Biden Democratic Party, and that’s the Trump Republican Party. So that meant Liddle Donnie Clown Boy didn’t get the big push he was hoping for in his campaign announcement. Worse than that, the truly amazing performance of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and some other Republicans (like Georgia Governor Brian Kemp) who are just as authoritarian as Trump but not as erratic mean that for the first time since 2016, some Republicans are actually advocating for someone else to be President. Of course Trump has to run anyway, basically to stay out of prison, but it’s getting that much harder. In a further act of disloyalty, “his” Supreme Court ordered that he must hand over his tax returns to a House investigative committee. The fact that Democrats won’t have charge of the House after December doesn’t matter, because they can share those documents with Senate committees, and the Senate hasn’t changed over to the Republicans. Again, largely because of the Party going along with Trump’s incompetence.

None of all the establishment Republican huffing and puffing against Trump is going to make much difference, because the professionals haven’t been in charge for a while. I plan to write in much greater detail about this subject, but I am thankful for Donald Trump because he always wants to make everything about him, even when he isn’t on the ballot. And by forcing his party to go along with his Big Lie, he did indeed make the election all about him, because everyone knew that all of those Church of Trump candidates for Governor and Secretary of State were going to change the rules to protect their party, and Trump in particular, from competition in 2024. So he made this election matter about as much as 2024, and a whole bunch of people, probably including some conservatives, realized we had to put a stop to that campaign this year. And we did. And in the process we made it a little less likely that Trump’s scheme to grab power again will work.

Again, none of this is going to stop “the base” from goosestepping in line to elect Trump so that they’ll never have to vote again, but that’s the other reason to be thankful. If Trump’s lies and schemes forced the non-Republican part of the country to move actively against him – which required acting against his Party – he’s forcing Republican and conservative influencers to consider if their slavish loyalty was worth it in the long run. A party that literally is only a Party of Trump, that is only about catering to his whims and delusions, cannot survive. And yet it has taken over precisely because celebrity worship and irrationality are more prized in the public sphere than professionalism and intellect. To really address the broader problem we need to address a culture that would make somebody like Trump president, which is where I get to the other person I want to thank:

Elon Musk.

I have already gone over how much Musk is fucking over Twitter, but apparently he’s not done. In his continuing tilt to squeeze a profit out of a medium that has never been profitable, Musk decided to fire a whole bunch of technical employees only to ask them to come back because they were fired “by mistake” or because he needed them to handle software issues that he didn’t realize needed to be dealt with. It turns out two of these people never worked there in the first place and were just trolling the company. I had said that the Occam’s Razor explanation for Musk’s erratic behavior is that he made a deal without knowing what he was doing or how to run this particular company, and he is hardly disabusing me of that notion.

I now put Elon Musk on a list with Rudy Guiliani and Vladimir Putin – men whom I used to think were intelligent. It turns out they’re just latter-day cases of the Peter Principle. The Peter Principle, for those who didn’t grow up in the ’70s, states that “In a hierarchy, every employee tends to rise to his level of incompetence.” Consequently, “In time, every post tends to be occupied by an employee who is incompetent to carry out its duties.” Like, maybe Vladimir Putin’s skill set at destroying opposition on a political level led him to believe he could invade the largest country in Europe other than Russia, with draftees and trainees and inadequate air support and logistics for the operation, and get the capital to fall in three days. Almost a year after the fact, that doesn’t seem to be the case.

Of course Trump is an even bigger example of the Peter Principle, but the difference is that Musk used to be considered competent. As in, even the people who didn’t like his management of Tesla or Space X didn’t think he was running them into the ground. But now the Tesla stock he was using to back up his takeover has gone down $700 billion in value from a year ago.

I can’t remember where, but someone recently said that Musk’s Twitter purchase was like a gambling addict buying the race track. This is about what you would expect. But I am thankful because not only is Musk wrecking Twitter, he is wrecking its credibility as an information source in the event that someone else takes charge. Liberals have been complaining for some time that Twitter is a monopoly, as if it were the only company providing a posting medium and as if that were the same thing as a public information service. But Musk’s utter disregard for information security really is a problem for anybody who wants to post on Twitter, and illustrates the problem we face when such a large and influential company is suddenly taken over by a capricious nitwit. But the difference between the Twitter base and the Republican Party is that social media users really do have other options. The one currently getting a lot of the buzz is Mastodon. The difference between that service and Twitter is that Mastodon is open-source. A Reason Magazine article explains it this way: “Essentially, Mastodon is a federation of independent but interconnected servers. It’s common to see Mastodon users refer to it as the “fediverse.” For the most part, folks in one part of the Mastodon fediverse can see and interact with folks in all other parts of the Mastodon fediverse.” One poster said, “This really isn’t a place of influencers – at least in its current iteration. If you don’t want to reply to comments on your posts you probably shouldn’t post. This (is) engagement and community not hot takes and “influence” that can be monetarized by advertisers.”

Of course that last bit may illustrate why Twitter got as toxic as it did and why all the people complaining about it didn’t leave until it became more liability than it was worth.

As Adam Conover said recently regarding Musk in particular, “(Sam Bankman-Fried), Elon and (Mark Zuckerberg) haven’t been hurt by their apocalyptic failures, but their image has. Everyone from the media to the government can finally see the truth. And that’s a good thing, because if we remember that these guys are actually dumbasses, then we can beat them.”

Of course that’s the bright-side way to look at it. The other way to look at it is that these con men got as far as they did because the majority who gave them power are that much bigger dumbasses.

Death Of A Twit

On Friday November 11, it was Veterans’ Day, when we honor our veterans, including those who died in service. And I checked my cellphone as I was getting out of bed, and found out that Kevin Conroy, the definitive Batman voice actor, had died. Not only that, Gallagher died.

Gallagher doesn’t die. I always thought that 50 years from now I would be dead and cremated and Gallagher would still be touring the clubs, his skeletal arms lifting the mallet to crush watermelons with maniacal focus, his remaining hairs wisping behind him like the angry ghosts of better comedians.

It’s like when I found out Lou Reed died. Once I was watching a concert video with him and somebody asked, “Who is that old guy? He looks like he’s dying, like he’s starving to death.” And I said, “No, he’s not dying, he’s just Lou Reed!” Lou Reed doesn’t die, he just gets homelier and homelier! And then he really died. Wow. Man, when Lou Reed died, it was a sad day for trans junkie hookers everywhere.

But at this morbid moment, I can at least take solace in an impending death that will actually do the world some good.

Twitter.

People have been bagging on Elon Musk for a while now, and his latest tilt towards the LOL Right has only confirmed why so many people hated him in the first place even as the rest of us admired his entrepreneurial moxie. But his latest and biggest mistake was sealing the deal to buy out Twitter even as he’d found out early on that it wasn’t profitable enough to be worth the investment. And so he is apparently deciding to make it an actual business. And in the process he is doing more to destroy the Twitter brand than he could if he were trying to liquidate Twitter on purpose, and I can’t prove that that isn’t what he’s really doing.

The first thing Musk did was to fire its previous executives including its general counsel, cause I guess Twitter had too much content supervision. Apparently, Elon’s takeover was so poorly done that the Twitter company got locked out of its own account for 12 days because login details had not been shared for the transition.

But the biggest policy change Musk made was to the status of “the blue checkmark.” For most of Twitter’s history, having a blue checkmark next to your account name marked you as the verified user and protected against fakes. To get it, you had to fill out a form. Most public figures’ accounts, like the accounts of the President (and the individual who is or used to be the president) are verified this way. I did not know this until recently because I don’t give a rat’s tail about Twitter and until now it really didn’t matter. But now Musk, officially “Chief Twit”, decided his main goal with the site was to monetize a communications medium that he’d sunk $44 billion into. He told everybody that in order to keep their blue checkmarks, they’d have to pay him $20 per month. And a lot of those verified posters pointed out it was their traffic that built the site, with Stephen King saying “Fuck that, they should pay ME.” So Musk haggled himself down to $8. But then he said that with the monthly fee service, which he christened “Twitter Blue”, you got to use after-post edits and other features that previously weren’t in Twitter before. That’s good. Although most of these features are on Facebook for free. But the company seemed more concerned with monetizing something that had previously been free but optional than with screening out spam/bot accounts, which everyone agrees are a problem on Twitter and that Musk has promised to address as highest priority. Since anybody could “verify” they were who they said they were by paying for the privilege, you had a whole bunch of people doing Elon Musk clone accounts and saying goofy things to demean his image, which meant that Mr. Free Speech banned a whole bunch of people and specified that any such fake account that is not specifically labeled “PARODY” will also be banned. But that wasn’t it. You had another guy who has taken the handle of Jesus Christ (‘Carpenter. Healer. God’), and somebody who took a verified Nintendo account and used it to post an account picture of Super Mario giving the finger.

Of course, if I was running Nintendo and I were running their Twitter account, showing Mario giving the finger would be exactly what I’d do. But maybe that’s why I’m not running Nintendo.

If you believe in free speech, that means you protect the integrity of free speech. Even for corporations. We have a right to state our opinion and not have it mistaken for someone else’s, or have someone else claiming to be us and giving us issues. Like, with Eli Lilly having to explain that insulin ISN’T free now.

Somewhat predictably, Elon backed off the Twitter Blue spiel once it became clear how much legal liability it was creating.

Not to mention, Musk is so hopped up on cost controls that he is basically filling all the executive posts by himself while expecting his people to give up work-from-home arrangements and go without days off. Which is further evidence that he’s running things into the ground deliberately, but then he wouldn’t be making things so hard for himself in the short term. The Occam’s Razor explanation would be that he just doesn’t know what he’s doing.

Somebody joked, “Hey Elon, you should buy Chik-fil-A and Hobby Lobby next.” The difference being that those businesses are actually making lots of money. Which among other things means that they wouldn’t have been vulnerable to a takeover because they don’t need a buyout.

As much as I hate to say, maybe liberals were right about libertarianism. Because a totally free, unregulated society still requires some level of implied rules that everyone voluntarily agrees to, and the reason we have all the damn rules we have is apparently because some people need to be told the obvious. Like “Don’t shit where you eat” and “Don’t be a racist moron.” The lesson with Twitter is that however much you believe in free speech and a marketplace of ideas, if your institution doesn’t adhere to a minimal set of principles and make them clear to everyone who wants to participate, then any jokester or opportunist can take over the medium and undermine it to the point that no one can trust it or take it seriously. Y’know, like what happened with the actual Libertarian Party.

Once again: Nothing is a priori. Nothing in this world sprang fully formed and equipped straight from the head of a god. People assume that Twitter is or should be some ideal public medium that fits their standard of what the ideal is, when Jack Dorsey and his people just built it as a small-scale, personal post platform, and because of that very informality, it took off. It was never really intended to become a profit instrument, much less the world’s “town square.” But that is what the community did with it.

And just as some in the community think of Twitter as an objective communications medium when it was never really intended to be such, Musk seems to think that because he paid many billions of dollars for Twitter that it ought to turn a profit. Again, Twitter only has value because of the people who are on it, and that value doesn’t necessarily translate directly into money. Remember what they say about social media: If you’re not paying for the product then you ARE the product. Someone on Pajiba pointed out, “If Twitter goes down, so does the easiest method Ukrainians have to inform the world of Russia’s war crimes, and an easy way for labor unions, dissidents, and other folks without much power to organize efforts. Twitter may have more problems than solutions, but it does have value. Or it did, before Musk’s ongoing crises gave him reason to smash it.”

A while ago, I concluded my opinion of Twitter with the following: “media critic Matt Zoller Seitz was quoted (from Twitter) saying “I’ve said it before, and I’ll repeat it now: if a superior alternative to Twitter appeared tomorrow, I’d be gone from here in a heartbeat.” My advice to Seitz would be to get together with like-minded people and come to a consensus about what “a superior alternative to Twitter” means, and then find people of means to finance it and experts to create it. My personal goal is to make enough money to where I can buy out Twitter with the specific purpose of destroying the website. Either that, or use the space for something more ennobling, like bumfights or fetish porn.”

Somebody still needs to figure out what a better alternative to Twitter would be and whether it would be more feasible as a profit site or a non-profit medium. As it is, I’m predicting Twitter bumfights and porn any week now.

The Party of Chump

Karma Police, arrest this man,

He talks in math, he buzzes like a fridge

He’s like a detuned radio

Karma Police, arrest this girl

Her Hitler hairdo is makin’ me feel ill

And we have crashed her party

-Radiohead, “Karma Police”

This is where we are after Election Day Tuesday.

In the House, several races, mainly in California, have yet to be called, yet because of Florida (see below) and surprisingly, New York, Republicans have made enough gains that they will probably get the chamber. But they probably won’t have a double-digit margin and might not get a net gain at all.

In the Senate:

Georgia has to be set aside for the moment because even though incumbent Democrat Rev. Raphael Warnock is leading, he has less than 50 percent of the vote, and so the race is going to a runoff by Georgia state rules, just like Warnock had the last time. And yeah, liberals, let’s boo the Libertarian candidate for even existing, but you would have had a similar result if he wasn’t there. The real problem is that anybody would vote for Herschel Walker in the first place.

Ron Johnson has just won his race in Wisconsin, so the Senate is back to 48-48.

The Alaska race is ranked-choice, but the two leading candidates are both Republican, being, Trumpnik Kelly Tshibaka and the incumbent (relatively moderate) Lisa Murkowski. So the Senate is still at least 49 seats Republican, it’s just a question of how much of a Trumpnik the Alaska Senator is.

So now it comes down to- Arizona and Nevada. Where they’ve already said it’s going to take several days because of the way everything is counted. But this is how the Church of Trump can make a case that everything is Rigged and Stolen. Professional liars know how to conceal their poison in a coating of truth, and the reason they can say the system is rigged is because some election systems really are complicated and obscure. Right now in Nevada at least we’re waiting on a bunch of mail-in votes, some of which legally cannot be counted until Saturday, and that’s the only hope that incumbent Senator Catherine Cortez Masto has against Adam Laxalt.

Republicans now need both Arizona and Nevada to secure a majority. The most likely result at the moment is that Cortez Masto loses to Laxalt (fuck) and incumbent Senator Mark Kelly holds out against Trumpnik Blake Masters. That then makes it Democrats 49, Republicans 50. If Warnock then wins the Georgia runoff it goes back to a tie, which is where we were, and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris means Democrats keep control of the Senate. If Democrats keep both those seats, it’s a Democratic majority whether Warnock wins or not, and if he does win, it’s Democrats with 51 seats. (Of course, the phrase ‘Senator Herschel Walker’ is the worst-case scenario in any event.)

So, basically back to a draw in the Senate and the preponderance of votes will probably give Republicans the House. So why is everyone in the Democratic Party so (unusually) cheerful?

Because the President’s party usually does a lot, lot worse in the midterms. 2022 was the best performance by the President’s party in midterms since 1950. The Michigan state legislature went Democrat for the first time in 40 years. Here’s a bit from the right-leaning Washington Examiner: “Things generally went well where the Republican was perceived as competent and not a servant to Trump — otherwise, not so much,” said one GOP operative speaking on the condition of anonymity in order to reflect candidly on the results. “The GOP should’ve become the party of Brian Kemp and Ron DeSantis yesterday, but it damn well better become it today.

“Trump endorsed over 330 candidates, held 30 rallies, and raised millions of dollars over the course of the midterm elections. The former president intended to use Tuesday’s results to strengthen his position within the party by delivering wins for the candidates he endorsed. But with the party’s underperformance, there appears to be growing frustration at the former president for endorsing what many see as a “slate of bad candidates.”

It’s time for Trump to step aside. Many of these races should have been easy wins for Republicans with record inflation and President Joe Biden’s sagging approval ratings. Instead, last night was an absolute nightmare scenario,” said an adviser to a Republican senator, who did not want to be identified. “I personally do not know of one person who still feels confident in his leadership after last night.

All that leads me to one conclusion, Republicans, and the conclusion is this: You suck. GAD, you suck SO hard. The Republican Party sucks harder than Alina Lopez at an all-Black gangbang.

I guess Mitch McConnell was right when he said candidate “quality” would probably stop his team from getting the Senate back. Who knows where Republicans would be if their political standard wasn’t “Arabic numerals are a Muslim conspiracy against Roman letters, and the heliocentric theory is a Communist subversion they teach our kids at Drag Queen Story Hour”?

I believe that the results confirm both of my initial impressions before Election Day. One, that the pollsters and other media were creating reasons to make the Republican candidates more competitive than they arguably should have been on their merits, and two, regardless of how much people hate the Democrats, they know they can’t trust the Republicans. Americans are tired of this shit. We are tired of the “circus.” We are tired of the designated conservative party being like the Nazis, only crazy and racist. We are tired of every aspect of public life being about our perfect little boy who is the center of the universe. We are tired of this spoiled little brat who poisons the air with his malice and lies, who constantly whines and hollers for attention, and maybe little boy should shut his fucking yap and GO TO FUCKING BED.

If there was any place where Republicans met and exceeded expectations, it was Florida, where Val Demmings seemed competitive against incumbent Republican Senator Marco Rubio but ended up losing by almost 10 points. Republican Governor Ron DeSantis beat Charlie Crist almost 60-40. And perhaps ironically, it’s all because of Hispanics. But then, liberals should have learned by now that Hispanics are not all the same group and do not all act alike any more than Irish and Canadians and Scots and English and Americans all act alike just cause they speak (something like) the same language. Still, I can understand how Florida Cubans and Venezuelan refugees would hate a Democratic party that is, rightly or not, identified with socialists. What I can’t understand is how “anti-socialists” can vote for a party that wants a one-party regime, built around a cult of personality where the Leader tells everyone what they can say, and what they can believe, and punishes business for not obeying his version of political correctness. And this time, I’m not talking about Trump, I’m talking about DeSantis.

So that’s what the setup is going forward. Prior to Tuesday, if DeSantis got re-elected (a damn-near certainty) and Trumpnik candidates did not win across the board (which seemed less likely before Tuesday) that strengthens DeSantis’ position against Trump, when, NOT if, Trump chooses to run for re-election as President. Trumpniks winning more seats would have helped Trump’s case. As it is, Trump has been teasing the press about some “very big announcement” around November 14th, or maybe the 15th, and the fact is, while announcing for President would require campaign finance restrictions that would restrict Trump’s ability to grift, Trump has to run for president again if he wants to stay out of jail. Either that or he gets a suitcase and crashes on Vladimir Putin’s couch, and most of the border traffic for Russia is going in the other direction. Plus which, they don’t really have a McDonald’s anymore.

Now of course, Trump may have competition. And while DeSantis is getting some backing for a presidential run because various right-wingers are also getting tired of Edward Babyhands, I don’t like Ron’s chances.

I mean, I don’t want to favor Trump in any comparison, but he actually has a sense of humor. Granted, this is the sadistic, gloating humor you would expect from a Bond villain who has Daniel Craig strapped to a chair, but it’s something like a sense of humor. Whereas DeSantis always acts like he’s sucking on a lemon, and that’s on his good days. He’s no fun. And most Republicans want to have fun while they’re punishing minorities and pregnant women.

Plus which, if we can confirm that most of the success that Republicans did have this year was despite Trump, as with the re-election of Trump heretics Brian Kemp as Georgia Governor and Brad Raffensberger as Secretary of State, it may be that in some races people actually care more about who would do a better job with the state than all the culture war stuff. I am frankly not sure if DeSantis has done anything to deserve his local popularity besides lean on all the culture war stuff. And if that’s all he has, he really can’t compete with Trump, who wasn’t competition for him before simply because Trump wasn’t going to run for Florida Governor.

And if that’s all Republicans have, Tuesday proved that it’s just not enough, even with a lot of states ginning the rules to favor them. Kemp and DeSantis did prove that local voters can support Republicans who aren’t Trumpniks. But they still need the national party to win the White House, and the question in the next two years is whether the national party wants to get rid of Trump. My guess is they don’t. My guess is that they keep whipping up their suckers for cash by playing the victims, and any Republican Congress will try to stage show trials against whatever Emmanuel Goldstein Trump wants them to go after that week, and put their reality TV show on the House committee floor in the afternoon so they can go on Fox News in the evening and brag about what a good job they did. It’s a lot more fun (and a lot more lucrative) than actually running a government, which they would know if they ever tried it.

Rick Wilson was right. Everything Trump touches dies. But he didn’t specify that everything Trump touches dies slowly and painfully. I’m okay with the slow part, as long as he and his enablers suffer as much pain as possible in the process. It’s only what they deserve.

So, knowing all the things that could still go wrong before January, let me just seize the moment to say the following:

FUCK YOU TRUMP.

Fuck You, you Russky traitor bitch.

FUCK.
YOU.
UP.
THE.
ASS.

This is what you get

This is what you get

This is what you get-

When you mess with us….

My Impressions

Early voting in Nevada ends Friday. The news leading up to the election is certainly stressful and intense. It shouldn’t be. Simply because Democrats could lose an election when Conventional Wisdom dictates the President’s party is going to lose in the midterms doesn’t mean it’s the figurative end of the world or the end of the republic.

Except, it probably could be.

Remember, the Party of Trump is engaged in an organized effort to install state officials who parrot the dogma that the election was stolen and Trump is the real president, and this effort is strongest in states like Arizona and Nevada where Trump barely (but clearly) lost. Lest one think this is not an organized campaign and that the good little Trumpniks all came to the same conclusion independently, Arizona US Senate candidate Blake Masters actually released a video of him campaigning door-to-door, and while he was out he took a call from Trump who told him, “Look at Kari. [Kari Lake, the Trump candidate for Governor] Kari’s winning with very little money, and if they say, ‘how’s your family?’ she says, ‘the election was rigged and stolen.'” All the proof we need that this really is the catechism of the Church of Trump. Just what you’d expect from a movement that is half fundamentalist cult and half snake-oil racket. Always Be Closing. At least Trump knows that much.

As addled as the Trumpniks may be in, for example, running a country, they have a capacity for long-term strategy and a capacity to change the terms of debate in a way that Democrats have so far been lacking. If they win it will make it that much easier for them to game the system and get their dominus et deus back in the White House, and then it won’t matter if Democrats bounce back in the presidential race after they didn’t feel like voting in the midterms because they weren’t enthused about the party in power. If enough Republicans get enough power in enough states next week, Democrats might never get back in power again.

These are my impressions on how this election is shaping up and how we got here.

The press is engaging in malpractice.

This week Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight made a hypothetical case for how Republicans could actually have a red wave this year, titled “The Case For A Republican Sweep On Election Night.” And I thought to myself, ‘that’s got to be the best news Democrats have had all year.

Silver, you might recall, was pretty optimistic about Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the White House in 2016, even if he also gave Trump a bigger chance than anyone else. And FiveThirtyEight, like most pollsters, was a lot more optimistic about the Democrats’ downballot chances in 2020 than the actual results warranted. After the fact, Politico came up with at least one analysis. “The most likely — if far from certain — culprit for off-kilter polling results is that key groups of people don’t answer polls in the first place. …Decreasing response rates have been a major source of concern for pollsters for more than a decade. But the politicization of polling during the Trump era — including the feedback loop from the former president, who has falsely decried poll results he doesn’t like as “fake” or deliberately aimed at suppressing enthusiasm for answering polls among GOP voters — appears to be skewing the results, with some segment of Republicans refusing to participate in surveys. …The most plausible — yet still unproven — theory is that the voters the polls are reaching are fundamentally different from those they are not. And Trump’s rantings about the polls being “fake” or rigged only exacerbate that problem.”

Politico also noted this year : “For the past week or so, polling averages like RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight have seen a steady stream of surveys from Republican (or Republican-leaning firms). That’s led to a social-media debate over whether the GOP’s uptick in the polls is real — or whether it’s an artifact of which polls are comprising these averages.

“How much of an influence are the Republican polls having? In New Hampshire, four of the last seven polls in the FiveThirtyEight average are from Republican firms. In Pennsylvania, it’s the three most recent polls, and six of the last nine. In Georgia, five of the last seven.” The article also noted that polls achieve substantively different results based on methodology: “(Nevada) Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto and Republican Adam Laxalt were tied in the New York Times/Siena College poll, 47 percent to 47 percent. Another new poll out Monday, an OH Predictive Insights poll conducted for the nonprofit Nevada Independent, showed Cortez Masto barely ahead of Laxalt, 43 percent to 41 percent.

“Again, though both polls point to a close race, the differences in vote share can be explained by different methodological choices. The Independent’s poll included all three third-party candidates, plus Nevada’s unique “none of these candidates” ballot option.

“But the Times poll required respondents to volunteer the names of the third-party candidates, and “none of these candidates,” likely leading to higher vote shares for both major-party hopefuls.”

It recalls the physics problem of how the act of observing a phenomenon changes the nature of what is being observed.

There’s also the fact that, as with the Clinton-Trump race in 2016, you have may one candidate who is unpopular but qualified, or in some races a candidate who is qualified AND popular, against another candidate who is objectively inferior, and the press basically stages things to make the race a lot more suspenseful than it arguably ought to be.

Katie Hobbs is the Democratic candidate for the open Governor seat in Arizona against Kari Lake. Some have compared the race to an NPR public-affairs host going up against a Fox News anchor. Hobbs clearly has no charisma, and apparently no faith in herself. Because she went through all kinds of maneuvers to avoid getting into a debate with Lake, and in such a way that it ended up causing more problems. Supposedly this was because Lake “only wants a scenario where she can control the dialogue ” and is “only interested in creating a spectacle”. Which is true enough. Of course the spectacle was where Hobbs torpedoed the debate and made herself look like a chicken. On the other side of the country, Democrat John Fetterman is running as the Democrat for Pennsylvania’s open US Senate seat against Mehmet “Dr.” Oz. Fetterman had a stroke just as he was getting confirmed as his party’s nominee, and had been doing pretty well in the polls even though he refused to do direct interviews or public appearances, citing his need to recover. But then he had to do the late-campaign debate with Oz, and predictably did very badly. (It was noted at the event that Fetterman had to watch closed captioning panels because he still has problems processing what he hears, which made it that much harder to respond in conversational real time.) Now, it may be true that Fetterman will end up recovering fully while Oz will always be an entitled jerk, but his performance still might have had a negative impact on people who hadn’t already made up their minds. Why did Fetterman keep to his schedule when he would have had an excuse not to? Because if he’d refused to debate, he would’ve looked like a chicken. As it is, he looks unfit. And thus two races that had been going pretty good for Democrats are in real danger of going the other way, because the candidates could not or would not perform to the dictates of the press.

Why? Because getting a bunch of career politicians and functionaries to keep running the government the establishment way is boring and bad for ratings. Stuffing a bunch of baboons into business suits and telling them to rewrite the Constitution is funny and great for ratings.

But that would be if the Democrats lose, as if they need any help. The real punch line would be if the Republicans aren’t as popular as they appear and don’t perform as well as the press expects (see below) and the Trumpniks, as they did in 2020, play on this to say everybody expected them to win and therefore an inconvenient result means the whole thing was “rigged” and “stolen.” And who else do you think they’re going to blame?

You would think that these guys learned their lesson by foisting a “reality” TV celebrity who then turned around and sued the press for telling the truth about him, but apparently not.

Nobody likes either of these parties.

But this election, based on all the information I can trust, really is close.

I went to a Walmart the other day and the friggin’ mens’ underwear was locked in a glass cabinet so you had to flag down an employee to get it. I went to their cereal aisle and the prices were almost a dollar higher than they were the last time I was there. Republicans’ anti-Democrat commercials keep hammering inflation and crime, and what am I dealing with when I want to shop in my neighborhood? Inflation and crime.

None of which means that Republicans have any better idea how to deal with these things, but all they have to do is keep hammering on the side that’s in charge and hope voters don’t have a memory span longer than two years.

And it goes to display our civic illiteracy and lack of long-term analysis that nobody considers that when you lose representative government, the economy gets worse in the long run because there is no way to correct a bad government’s bad decisions. Just look at Vladimir “Let’s Have A War” Putin. Or China under Xi Jinping, whose economy is becoming more brittle even as The Leader consolidates more power.

But the apparent weakness of the Democrats in the stretch belies the point that again, in midterm elections with an unpopular president, that president’s party usually does that much worse. And if Republicans are that popular and Democrats are that bad, you would think that their lead in “tight” states would be that much more clear. If Republicans really are a party of brain-dead theocrats, why aren’t Democrats running away with this? And if Democrats are a bunch of woke Commies and everybody hates the economy, why aren’t Republicans running away with this?

Because the Republicans actually ARE a brain-dead theocracy. And while the Democrats aren’t really a Communist regime, they haven’t been doing such a great job.

MAYBE, it could be, Americans don’t like either one of these gangs. But one has to win.

And if Democrats are that unpopular and that incompetent, and Democrat early voting turnout is as lackadaisical as it often is (remember, blowing a big lead on paper is what Democrats DO), the main thing that gives me hope is that in the Kansas abortion referendum this summer – where a “Yes” vote technically would have only meant that the state had the option to write greater restrictions on abortion in the future – the main poll prior to the vote had “Yes” leading by 4 points with a 2.8 percent margin of error and the “No” vote ended up winning by almost 60-40.

Because as much cause as voters might have to hate Democrats, I think some of them realize that they can’t take a chance with the Republicans. “What the hell have ya got to lose?” Well, over a million COVID deaths between January 2020 and November 2022, over a third of which were under Trump in one year.

The Future

So given all that, I’ve got no right to make a prediction for what happens in these various elections other than what we already know: If Republicans win their contests they will do all they can to skew state governments to make sure they can throw out any 2024 election results they don’t like. And if they don’t get the results they want they will scream and cry and throw things, try to pull what legal skullduggery they can and ultimately resort to violence, because that’s just what they did after 2020.

Democrats keep wailing that this approach is a threat to “democracy”, but I’m not sure they understand that in an environment where everything is branding, association of democracy with the Democratic Party might not be such a great idea. Think of our system more as “representative government.” Or even “republicanism.” And right now the ostensible Republicans are against that. A republic means you elect the political class, and if your approach is “either we win or there will be blood”, then there’s really not an election now, is there? I know the Right is, or used to be, the side that said, “it’s a republic, not a democracy,” but as I’ve said, these are functionally the same thing. And if there are no independent elections, it’s not even a republic anymore. It’s more like what you have in Communist countries where you have an “election” to give undeserved legitimacy to the regime, but the outcome is never in doubt. I mean back in the days of Reagan or even McCain, Republicans used to be critical of old Communist politicians but apparently not anymore.

Regardless of who ends up winning in your state, this is my advice to any liberals after the election:

Buy guns. Train with guns. And buy lots of ammo.

Because it is very clear now that the Republican state governments and the Alito Supreme Court don’t think we have any human rights other than the right to have guns, and don’t acknowledge any part of the Bill of Rights besides the Second Amendment. And you need to take advantage of that before they get rid of that too. I mean, if they see enough black, female and gay customers come into the gun shops all at once, they might get wise. Although if you have pastel colored hair and a cannabis T-Shirt, you might be able to pass as a Libertarian.

You might think, “oh no, we shouldn’t escalate”, but kids, the Party of Trump has been escalating for the past six years whether you acknowledge it or not, and this is where we are. These people only acknowledge power and force, and you need to get some of your own. Or, you can just keep playing Eloi to their Morlocks until they’ve gobbled the last one of you.

And if you really think the solution to this country’s political violence is more gun control – meaning, more control of the individual by a government that you are rapidly losing control over – first acknowledge that you’re not going to get more federal gun control as long as the entire Republican Party and several senior Democrats are against it. But you know what will change their minds?

All you need to do is have one hundred big Black men in BLM T-Shirts, flanked by an honor guard of twenty drag queens, marching down the streets of Washington DC all strapped with AK-47s and AR-15s. When they see that on Fox News, the Republicans will all change their minds on gun control right quick. They will change their minds like Saul on the road to Damascus, PRAISE Jesus.