HA Ha!

Upon this a question arises: whether it be better to be loved than feared or feared than loved? It may be answered that one should wish to be both, but, because it is difficult to unite them in one person, is much safer to be feared than loved, when, of the two, either must be dispensed with. Because this is to be asserted in general of men, that they are ungrateful, fickle, false, cowardly,covetous, and as long as you succeed they are yours entirely; they will offer you their blood, property, life and children, as is said above, when the need is far distant; but when it approaches they turn against you. And that prince who, relying entirely on their promises, has neglected other precautions, is ruined; because friendships that are obtained by payments, and not by greatness or nobility of mind, may indeed be earned, but they are not secured, and in time of need cannot be relied upon; and men have less scruple in offending one who is beloved than one who is feared, for love is preserved by the link of obligation which, owing to the baseness of men, is broken at every opportunity for their advantage; but fear preserves you by a dread of punishment which never fails.

  • Niccolo Machiavelli, The Prince, Chapter XVII

So all the Democrats were fretting and all the Republicans were gloating about all the laws they would get to pass and all the investigations they would get to start against Democrats once they had control over the House of Representatives this term. Except, officially, they’re not in control. Kevin McCarthy (BR.-California) was the designated candidate for Speaker and did get an overwhelming majority of his caucus to make him leader of his party, but unlike the Senate (where unwritten tradition apparently allows the leader of the majority party to run the whole show just because), Article I of the Constitution says the House has to elect its leader by consensus of the entire chamber, including the opposition. Because the Speaker is the presiding officer, no other procedures, including the swearing in of members, can begin until the Speaker is chosen. And since the Republican majority in the House, including the people who voted against McCarthy’s leadership, are only ten more than the Democrats, those opponents only need five votes to torpedo McCarthy’s Speaker bid. Well, guess what. The first round of votes, all 212 Democrats voted for their leader, Hakeem Jeffries (New York) and 19 Republicans went against McCarthy. Since then, they have gone through the same result, as of Thursday night, ten more times. Well, not exactly the same result. In the fourth and subsequent ballots, Victoria Spartz (R.-Indiana) voted “present” which lowered the threshold McCarthy needed but ultimately meant one less vote in his favor since none of the defectors went to his side. On Friday, McCarthy still fell short on a twelfth and thirteenth vote, but got more than ten Republicans back to his side, perhaps because today is the second anniversary of their Viceroy trying to seize control of our government by force, and they wanted to honor the occasion.

This after McCarthy went to any and every length to make sure he had the whole Republican Party behind him in his quest for the Speaker’s office. He admitted on tape after the Trump Riots (TM), “I’ve had it with this guy. What he did is unacceptable” but McCarthy continued to support Trump’s claims that the 2020 election of Joe Biden was illegitimate. For example, he had signed an amicus brief supporting Trump’s case in Texas v. Pennsylvania, which the Supreme Court refused to hear on the grounds that one state cannot contest the election process of another state. Hours after the Trump Riots, McCarthy was one of the Republicans who voted against certifying Biden’s win in two states. On January 28, McCarthy appeared at Mar-a-Lago to take a picture with Trump, an act that the mainstream media described as “kissing Trump’s ring”, since they’re operating on the rules of basic cable. He aceeded to the wishes of Matt Gaetz (BR.-Florida) and other Trumpniks who demanded the excommunication of Liz Cheney (R.-Wyoming) from House leadership for opposing Trump’s auto-coup. This as Kevin insisted, “I don’t think anybody is questioning the legitimacy of the presidential election”. In June 2021, McCarthy opposed the creation of a bipartisan House commission to investigate the Capitol riots, threatening the committee assignments of any Republicans who participated, inadvertently giving a free hand to Speaker Nancy Pelosi to have her own committee with two Republicans, Cheney and retiring Congressman Adam Kinzinger (Illinois) who were already on the outs with the Church of Trump. Which is part of how the committee got recordings that both McCarthy and Cheney had participated in, which might be why Gaetz and the other Trumpniks won’t back him as leader, since they have no more reason to trust what he tells them than Cheney had to trust what he told her.

McCarthy is – what’s the term I’m looking for here? – Ah yes. A “bitch-ass nigga.”

One of my Facebook friends posted that Kevin must have a thing for public humiliation. I said, “I figured that out from his actions immediately after January 6.”

One of the journalists reporting on this for MSDNC said that Kevin McCarthy’s problem is that he can’t change being Kevin McCarthy. No, I would say the problem is the exact opposite. Kevin McCarthy has changed being Kevin McCarthy lots of times. Nobody trusts him, nobody likes him, nobody respects him, and no one will follow him.

Apparently Kevin didn’t figure out that if you’ve already conceded everything to the other party, you have no leverage to make them hold to their side of the deal. But among Kevin’s myriad vices, the foremost of them is stupidity.

The spiritual lesson I get from Kevin McCarthy is that you should never crave a thing so desperately that you make it obvious to others how much you want it. Because then they know how to make you dance on their string.

He’d already agreed to bring back the old House rule (prudently tanked by Pelosi) that members could bring a vote of no confidence in the Speaker if it had just five supporters. After the sixth ballot, McCarthy agreed that McCarthy’s leadership PAC would not spend any money on “safe” seats for Congress, meaning he would not support any candidate who was opposed to the Trumpniks. He has also now agreed that a no-confidence vote only requires one Congressman, so basically anything he does is subject to liberum veto. What is liberum veto? Well, in the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, this was a right of any man in the Sejm (senate) to hold up any legislation at will, meaning one person could thwart an otherwise overwhelming consensus. This weakness in the system made “Polish parliament” an insult term in Western Europe and is considered one of the reasons that the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth declined and died, because Russia (among other countries) figured out they could buy the vote of any Polish senator to stop the Commonwealth from doing anything in its best interest, including stopping Russia from undermining and seizing their territory.

Why am I bringing up Russia buying legislators to act against their own country? No reason.

McCarthy is in a way just as serious about government as his opponents. Any such deal isn’t worth the toilet paper it is written on and will soon be flushed down the john after being used for its natural purpose.

He certainly doesn’t have any serious policy differences with Trumpniks, and Trump himself is pushing for his speakership. But all the pundits cackling over the House defiance of Trump’s dictate fail to realize (as with his endorsement of COVID vaccine) that his influence is entirely negative. Trump just gave a role model to a party base that was already driven by oppositional defiant disorder. When Trump, in his own long-term interest, decides to support the structure rather than tear it down, suddenly the brats don’t listen to him. I mean when you let them get drunk every night, they’re not going to like it when you tell them to switch to milk.

Which is why Matt “Morrissey Called, He Wants His Hairstyle Back” Gaetz admitted when called out by McCarthy that he didn’t care if Hakeem Jeffries ended up getting the speakership, and why Gaetz was seen on the House floor in conversations with people like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who in her previous terms was one of the people who thought Nancy Pelosi wasn’t leftist enough.

What it is is that these guys want all the freedom to be bomb throwers and all the privileges of being in the establishment. They want all the rights and none of the responsibilities. They want to have it both ways. In short, they’re Republicans.

Anti-McCarthy Trumpnik Lauren Boebert engaged in a semi-serious discussion with Stephanie Ruhle on MSDNC, the same week she had a discussion with Sean Hannity that was actually more combative, and you know, give Boebert points for showing up, given that most Republicans don’t see going on MSDNC as being worth the effort, and most of that network’s hosts agree. But one of the points she was trying to make is that for years, no one in the House leadership, in either party, really cared about conservative concerns like balancing the budget, and the only way for that to happen was for the “radicals” to use their leverage.

Reason Magazine had at least one web article this week taking this premise at face value, mocking Mainstream Media for saying these guys only care about personal power when they actually have real procedural concerns, or that they are only serving Trump when the leaders (including Boebert) have specifically gone against him to oppose McCarthy. “None of Mr. McCarthy’s opponents reversed course after receiving calls from Mr. Trump encouraging them to do so,” Lerer and Epstein note. If they are not in it for him, the Times suggests, they must be in it for themselves, because they cannot possibly be trying to accomplish what they say they are trying to accomplish—a proposition so absurd that it is not even worth considering.”

Yes, Charlie Brown, and this time I’ll keep the football on the ground FOR SURE.

The fact that Republicans – and a lot of non-Republicans – had serious questions about how Democrats were running things didn’t mean Republicans had a better idea in 2016. What is absurd is thinking that “conservatives” are any more concerned with fiscal restraint and regular order than they were last year, or when Republicans were last in charge. What is absurd is watching Republican majorities balloon the deficit that much more than Democrats who actually advertise how much they tax and spend. The last time a Republican Speaker seriously tried to change things was Newt Gingrich with the Contract With America, and we all know how that went. The reason the Mainstream Media are so quick to assume the rebels are more concerned with power and privilege than good government is because they have had years and years to watch this process, and know not to take any of these presentations in good faith, unlike Reason Magazine.

Taking the rebels seriously is to act under the assumption that these Republicans think that elected office is a public responsibility, when they think that the purpose of elected office is an opportunity to be the Christian conservative version of GG Allin. But then, given that Allin’s real legal name was Jesus Christ, the analogy may be that much more apt.

But the fact that a small minority is holding up the process underlies the point that the vast majority of House Republicans really do want McCarthy, or at least see him as the best of options. But because of their weak margin of superiority, without the holdouts, Republicans are actually outnumbered by the 212 Democrats voting consistently for Hakeem Jeffries. Nobody considers that if the Democrats are the known element and the Gaetz types are never going to vote McCarthy, the main Republicans actually have the power to make a decision. If they can’t get enough people to go McCarthy they can go outside the cycle and find a conservative that the Gaetz types do not hate, or, some Republicans, even just six, can vote for Jeffries, or Republicans can move for plurality vote, which would either lead to a Jeffries win or scare the radicals with that possibility and convince them to go with the main Republicans’ choice.

But that would mean taking a stand, even if it’s for somebody who is on paper more conservative than McCarthy, and the “normal” Republicans don’t want to alienate either McCarthy or the insurrectionists, just like McCarthy wants to be the leader of “normal” Republicans and also of the insurrectionists.

So they want all the freedom to be bomb throwers and all the privileges of being in the establishment. They want all the rights and none of the responsibilities. They want to have it both ways. In short, they’re Republicans.

And if this is the behavior you can expect from the sane and sensible Republicans, it’s no wonder the lunatics are running the asylum.

Maybe It’s The Beginning Of The End

“So here are the conclusions that this year tells us:

The first, sad conclusion is that there were a lot of lies this year and it must stop.”

-Margarita Simonyan, Russia Today propagandist

There is still a pretty good chance that Donald Trump may again be the Viceroy for Russian North America, if only because the Republican Party isn’t motivated to stop him from being nominated as their candidate. Even though, weeks after announcing a presidential campaign, he really isn’t doing much with it. Early in December he blasted a “MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT” that some people thought might actually be a major announcement relevant to his political strategy, assuming he had one. Which he doesn’t. Instead he did a video where the big announcement was a new line of NFT virtual trading cards featuring Trump in poses like superhero and astronaut (also, policeman, sailor, construction worker, cowboy, Indian chief…). For $99 each, with no guarantee which one you’d get. This was so ridiculous even Trumpworld felt the need to ridicule it. Steve Bannon, on his “War Room” podcast, said “I can’t do this anymore… We’re at war,” Bannon said. “They oughta be fired today.” Bannon’s guest, Sebastian Gorka, said, “Whoever wrote that pitch should be fired and should never be involved” – as if Gorka and Bannon both didn’t know that Trump isn’t going to do anything he doesn’t want to do.

Around the same time, a Trumpnik with the appropriate alias “Baked Alaska”, who got convicted on misdemeanor earlier this year for participating in the Capitol riot, told reporters, “I can’t believe I’m going to jail for an NFT salesman.”

Poor little Trumpniks. They actually thought he was serious. That he cared about something greater than himself.

They thought Trump was going to be their Hard Man. Their version of Vladimir Putin, or at least Rodrigo Duterte. They thought he was gonna kick ass and take names, and anybody who didn’t march in step was gonna be sent to the Gulag.

What they got was Liddle Donnie Clown Boy. What they got was the guy who sells Trump Vodka and Trump Steaks.

And given that Trump doesn’t drink alcohol, and eats steaks well-done with ketchup, they should have figured that he knows just as much about government as he does about liquor and cooking.

(It kind of raises the question of what Trump would do if he had a Food Network show. ‘Next the recipe calls for a tablespoon of kosher salt, which as everybody knows, is salt that only comes from the front part of the cow.’)

It also doesn’t help Trump’s case going towards the 2024 campaign that the Democrats in Congress finally got access to Trump’s tax returns, with just enough time to release them to the public before Republicans take over the House. Investigative journalist and longtime Trump hunter David Cay Johnston came up with his own take, saying “Trump’s Taxes Are the Best Case Yet for Putting Him in Prison” even as he also details why that hasn’t happened yet. As Johnston himself says, whatever tax reforms he would recommend are not going to do any good now because they haven’t been enacted yet, and they probably won’t be, because as he says, the people who benefit from the system as it is are also the donor class, and some of the politicians they sponsor in both parties. Of course most of them don’t have the capacity to appoint their own Treasury Secretary and IRS chief, as Trump did.

His usual weasely presentation has been that he did everything legally and he was just working the system and “that makes me smart” and all that. And that may indeed be true. But if so, it just raises the question, if he didn’t do anything wrong, why was he so desperate to hide what he did?

Well, Johnston’s article also points out: “Perhaps most glaring in the tax returns is that they include 26 Trump businesses—or imaginary businesses—with zero revenue and hundreds of thousands of dollars in tax deductions for expenses.

“Unless Trump can produce records showing the expenses are real and meet other standards to be deductible, that’s fraud. That Trump did it 26 times as a candidate and as president is powerful evidence that he qualifies for prosecution by the federal government and New York State for criminal tax fraud.”

But again, that assumes that someone’s actually going to enforce the law, and most of the reason things got to this point is that nobody does. When Trump wasn’t a politician, it wasn’t considered a priority to go after him, and even after he used his presidency to make himself a national security risk, for that reason, the political establishment now think he’s too big to fail.

This year, when Saturday Night Live again gave Dave Chappelle a host gig the weekend after an election, he said, among many other politically incorrect things, that Trump is very popular, even loved, among some people at least. Because Trump is “an honest liar.” As in, during his first debate, he said “this whole system is rigged!” And when the moderator asked him to demonstrate why, Trump said, “I know the system is rigged, because I USE it.” He said to Hillary Clinton (according to Chappelle), “if you want me to pay my taxes, change the tax code. But I know you won’t, because your friends and your donors enjoy the same tax breaks that I do.’ …And with that, my friends, a star was born.”

It really brings up the old phrase “Hypocrisy is the respect that vice pays to virtue.” Or as I said, a long time ago when this all started: “But when the virtue of honesty is conflated with the vice of rudeness – often by a political class who have good reason to fear honesty – the result is that anyone who wishes to sell rudeness can do so by calling it honesty. And thus a population deprived of the virtue will embrace the vice. It’s like living in the most antiseptic circumstances and then finally being exposed to filth, and your immune system has no experience with it.” We can see simply from the example of Hillary Clinton what hypocrisy leads us to. But if one objects to the vice underlying hypocrisy, obviously the solution is to challenge the vice, not openly embrace it. What we’re seeing is the open embrace of vice, and why it’s not an improvement on hypocrisy. Because when the ruling class can’t even bother to lie anymore, they have no reason to moderate their evil, because they know no one’s going to call them on it.

Much as all those professional Christians that Republicans nominated to the Supreme Court told the Democrats that Roe v. Wade was “settled law” (when it wasn’t), that simply ending Roe wasn’t going to undermine the right to abortion in states that still affirmed it (when it did) and the Dobbs decision didn’t set a precedent on civil rights cases like Obergefell v. Hodges (when it does). We have now reached the dangerous point where the powers that be still feel the need to lie, but can’t even bother to lie WELL.

There is still a need to lie because previous evidence to the contrary, there was still a fear that reactionary forces could have pushed the envelope too far. That maybe, hey, we can’t just admit we’re running an entire country only for the benefit of people who agree with us and fuck everybody else in it. Those other people might get MAD. And, previous evidence to the contrary, this election they actually DID.

The reason a liar continues to lie when lying would be unnecessary or impractical is because to lie is to set up a conflict between what wants to be true and what one knows to be true. Thus, self-deception is the root of any lie. But this means that there are only two ways to resolve the conflict: Either force everyone else to go along with the lie or to give up the lie. And the real problem occurs when the outside world makes it clear it will not be forced.

Ukraine is just a more visceral example. My quote at the beginning was from Margarita Simonyan, a “journalist” for Russia Today, the main media service of the Putin government. It was part of a year-end review of Russia’s performance, or lack thereof, in the “special military operation” against the “Nazi” government of Ukraine. Now, simply because one is a propagandist doesn’t mean one can’t tell the truth. Just because one might prefer to believe the Ukrainian government doesn’t mean they don’t engage in propaganda. But it comes down to the fact that you don’t have to “believe” anything but the facts. If Russia were winning in Ukraine, it would be a lot easier for them to say so. If they had actually managed to take the capital in three days, they could have filmed it. Russia and Ukraine can say anything they want about who’s winning, but I believe Ukraine is winning by simple virtue of the fact that they’re still around. We’ve heard that some people can make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear, but that requires a sow’s ear. Russia doesn’t even have a sow’s ear to work with, which is why even their propaganda ministries are unable to point to victories that haven’t happened and instead point fingers everywhere except where the problem starts.

For a shill like Simonyan to truly stop the lies, she would have to start with the first obvious one: That Ukraine is just a “little Russia”, that it doesn’t really exist as its own nationality and that therefore Russia can just walk in and take it without anybody seriously trying to stop them. But by implication that would mean challenging the greater premise that supports it: That you can have faith in a ruthless leader whose decisions are more wise the more unaccountable he becomes. Ending that belief would challenge her whole world view, and she’s not going to do that. Likewise an American fascist like Steve Bannon might admit that his Leader is capable of error, but he’s going to go back to serving Trump, like he has in the past. Where else is he going to go? What else is he going to do? Be normal???

You cannot expect these people to just evolve or grow out of it. On an individual level, people who aren’t fully invested in the lie may realize it isn’t working out for them and quit supporting it, which is a big part of why Democratic candidates won in 2022, either because of Republicans voting for them or simply not voting at all. But the people who are most invested have the most to lose, and not just in terms of money. The best and brightest of the fascists might be capable of acknowledging the facts against them, but they are too emotional to grasp why the facts are against them, because that would challenge their whole view of reality.

We cannot assume that the bad guys will just see the error of their ways, or just die out. Trump and Putin may be old, but they’re not dying fast enough. And even if they died tomorrow, their proteges would be waiting in the wings, because they’ve been taught to think that bad behavior would be rewarded. The only thing that disincentivizes bad behavior is to quit rewarding it. And that means actively resisting it, either on the battlefield or the ballot box. That does not guarantee success, let alone some utopian future, but for quite some time – a little bit before Brexit and Trump, actually – it seemed as though the forces of regression had the upper hand, and were going to direct the world. This autumn the rest of the world showed they would, and could, fight back. And that might be a turning point, a beginning of the end for “post-liberal” lying and corruption.

That might actually be a Happy New Year.

The Art of Modern War

“I don’t need a ride, I need ammo.”

-Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy, February 2022

“I don’t need ammo, I need a ride.”

– Russian Armed Forces, September 2022

Welcome back my friends, to the war that never ends.
On November 11, which we celebrate as Veterans’ Day from the Armistice of World War I in the West (in Russia, they weren’t quite so lucky), Ukraine liberated the city of Kherson, capital of Kherson Oblast, the only major regional capital that Russia managed to capture in 2022. It was a surprise how suddenly it happened. Less than three days before, Russia controlled a large territory on the west bank of the Dnipro River which comes into the Black Sea near Kherson. On November 9, Ukraine retook the town of Snihurivka, which is about 59 kilometers drive from Kherson city. And now Ukraine’s military is in Kherson’s center.
It was not expected to be this easy. Given the Putin government’s general contempt for human rights, everyone in the West expected Russia’s telegraphed withdrawal from the area to be a giant trap, with garrisons hiding in the cities to snipe at Ukrainian troops, or worse, Russia blowing the dam on the east side of the river to flood the city and delta, causing thousands of casualties. That didn’t happen, or if there are any traps, no one has seen them yet. On YouTube, the channel Combat Veteran Reacts pointed out that Russia needed to secure bridges to get people across before blowing them up to stop the enemy. With temporary pontoon bridges, they’re usually only one vehicle wide, which means you might have a max of 50 troops in an APC cross the river at a time. That would of course assume that everyone was retreating in good order. “What appears maybe to have happened is that instead of a systematic careful withdrawal that Ukraine can exploit, the Russians just… heard a withdrawal order on the TV, literally picked up their rifles, got into any vehicle, and just drove to the river.” Which, as with their retreat from Kharkiv Oblast in September means leaving a lot of military equipment behind, only worse because the earlier campaign was over more open terrain.

Since then the war has become a bit more stagnant, but as the weather worsens, Russia has tried to press for what advantage it can, mainly by pushing for the east-central town of Bakhmut, which most Western military analysts think has little strategic value. By contrast, Ukraine took not only the Kherson area west of the Dnipro, they really changed the course of the war by taking back most of the Kharkiv oblast due northeast of their capital, Kyiv. That was some time after they had managed to defend the capital well enough to make Russia retreat from their offensive there. Overall, since Vladimir Putin started his war of choice in February 24, 2022, Ukraine has taken back roughly half of the territory that Russia managed to seize at the high mark of their invasion progress.

It is the most impressive military campaign in Europe since World War II. And one of the ironies is that while Putin has tried to combine the reactionary politics of the Orthodox Church with the statism and organized power of the Soviet Union, part of Ukraine’s success is that, intentionally or not, they are doing a better job with World War II Soviet military theory than the Russians.

The Soviet approach to land warfare was called deep operation, or deep battle doctrine, and it was so called because it dealt with not only tactics and strategy but also what the US military now calls the operational level of a military campaign, dealing with the totality of both tactical and strategic affairs. According to the Wikipedia article, “It was a tenet that emphasized destroying, suppressing or disorganizing enemy forces not only at the line of contact but also throughout the depth of the battlefield. …The goal of a deep operation was to inflict a decisive strategic defeat on the enemy’s logistical abilities and render the defence of their front more difficult, impossible, or indeed irrelevant. ” In military history, the theory was most associated with Mikhail Tukhachevsky, a marshal who got executed in Stalin’s purges, but after Hitler betrayed Stalin and invaded Soviet Russia, Marshal Zhukov and other generals re-developed it and put it to use against the Axis. However the first theorist to name the theory was Vladimir Trianadfillov, a Soviet general who died in 1931.

Deep battle’s emphasis on mobile warfare and encirclement resembled the Germans’ contemporary ‘blitzkrieg’ tactics (which themselves borrowed from maverick generals in Britain and France) but according to its name, went deeper in intention and results. From the article:

“Blitzkrieg emphasized the importance of a single strike on a Schwerpunkt (focal point) as a means of rapidly defeating an enemy; deep battle emphasized the need for multiple breakthrough points and reserves to exploit the breach quickly. The difference in doctrine can be explained by the strategic circumstances for the Soviet Union and Germany at the time. Germany had a smaller population but a better-trained army, and the Soviet Union had a larger population but a less-trained army. As a result, Blitzkrieg emphasized narrow front attacks in which quality could be decisive, but deep battle emphasized wider front attacks in which quantity could be used effectively.

“In principle, the Red Army would seek to destroy the enemy’s operational reserves and its operational depth and occupy as much of his strategic depth as possible. Within the Soviet concept of deep operations was the principle of strangulation if the situation demanded it, instead of physically encircling the enemy and destroying him immediately. Triandafillov stated in 1929:

The outcome in modern war will be attained not through the physical destruction of the opponent but rather through a succession of developing manoeuvres that will aim at inducing him to see his ability to comply further with his operational goals. The effect of this mental state leads to operational shock or system paralysis, and ultimately to the disintegration of his operational system. The success of the operational manoeuvre is attained through all-arms combat (combined arms) at the tactical level, and by combining a frontal holding force with a mobile column to penetrate the opponent’s depth at the operational level. The element of depth is a dominant factor in the conduct of deep operations both in the offensive and defensive.”

This differed from blitzkrieg and “Clausewitzian” principles of destroying enemy units in the field, which was the main focus of Germany in the two World Wars. The article states that the major example of this approach was Operation Uranus, the Soviet encirclement of the German Sixth Army at Stalingrad; once the Germans were committed in the city, the weaker military units guarding the flanks were routed and the Germans were cut off from any escape. At that point the Soviets simply waited for winter and lack of supply to defeat the Germans in the city. The Battle of Stalingrad ended up capturing 91,000 Axis soldiers.

The other term used for this military approach in World War II was maskirovka (masquerade), basically deceiving the Germans as to where the Soviet offensive was going to move so that the Axis would try to defend in a different area and then the Soviets would attack at a weak point. What Americans might call “hit ’em where they ain’t.” Not unlike what the Western Allies did in 1944 when they made all their maneuvering in Britain look like our invasion of Nazi Europe was going to start in Calais (a narrower point in the English Channel than Normandy and closer to both Paris and Germany) so that the Nazi garrisons were concentrated there instead of the real invasion points (in Normandy) so that Normandy was less defended and the Allies had more time and space to expand the beach heads.

Ukraine, with its relatively small army and pre-war lack of mobile forces, is not really able to perform Nazi or Soviet style encirclements of Russians on the battlefield. But they have still been operating as much on an operational as a tactical level, with the Kharkiv offensive in particular being not so much simply engaging the enemy directly as wearing down their front and support lines before attacking so that the offensive was on their terms. As with maskirovka, the principal element was feinting moves to make Russia believe that the main offensive was going toward Kherson city. US military support was critical in this regard, as HIMARS missile batteries were used to strike behind Russian lines up to 70 kilometers, hitting critical supply and ammunition depots. Another huge factor in Ukraine’s success with deception is its greater mastery of modern information war; one Ukrainian official said “They are blind, we see everything.” Ukrainian strikes behind the lines also included attacks on Russian radar systems and the use of anti-aircraft systems to counter Russian drones and air missions. By September 6, Ukrainian forces had amassed at a focal point in Balakliia, dazing Russian forces and causing a rapid retreat. By September 9, Ukraine had reached Kupiansk, a major rail and transportation hub, undermining Russia’s ability to resupply and redeploy in the sector and contributing to the armed forces’ decision to withdraw to the Oskil river. But in October Ukraine continued the offensive and managed to reach as far as Kreminna before Russia managed to regroup and push back. In the wake of all this Russia’s forces were further deteriorated by loss of equipment, partially because of Ukraine’s rapid advance but also because Russian attempts to blow bridges frequently occured before they could get tanks and heavy equipment across, and as Russian troops simply abandoned their defense posts.

Which only brings up the point that as cunning as Ukraine’s strategy has been up to this point, its success has at least as much to do with the deficiencies of the Russian side.

Putin launched his invasion in February apparently on the assumption that Ukraine’s field defenses were just going to break, he would be able to take Kyiv, and then whatever rump government managed to hold the west of Ukraine would eventually accede to whatever stooge he wanted to impose on them. He may have thought this because President Zelenskyy really wasn’t that popular at home before the war started, or because the West hadn’t done anything to help Ukraine after Russia’s previous violations of Ukrainian territory in 2014 and after. Indeed, part of Putin’s escalation to full-scale war was his diplomatic recognition of the pro-Russia Luhansk and Donetsk “republics” on Ukraine’s eastern border with Russia, and the fact that Ukraine had been fighting those separatists on a low level for years despite lack of Western support should have told Putin that his “special military operation” wasn’t going to be just a three-hour tour.

A large part of this is the relative lack of presence of the Russian Air Force. Many of its Sukhoi models of close air support craft are outdated by 21st Century standards. The Ukrainians’ use of anti-aircraft batteries, even before high-level NATO support, demonstrated greater efficiency for the value than Russian offensive air and contributed to making Russian pilots “risk averse.” Part of that is because Russian craft are more reliant on unguided weapons, meaning they have to get close to the target to fire. The overall problem is that Russia’s military does not train their pilots intensively, with their flying time roughly 100 hours per year, less than one-third that of their NATO counterparts. More skilled pilots would be better able to reach “dynamic” targets and still survive.

That hollowness and lack of support point to an even more fundamental problem with Russia’s military. In October, a lieutenant general reported that 1.5 sets of military uniforms had gone missing. Apparently this was 1.5 million sets of uniforms that were supposed to be on record and are now unaccounted for. These were supposed to include winter uniforms. And as the Starks would say, winter is coming. Such gear as they do have is not optimized for winter and is made out of synthetic materials to save costs. Corruption is endemic in the entire Russian government, leading to a military that is more designed for the elites to profit from graft than to perform its national defense or attack purposes. “Most companies responsible for providing food to the Russian military are connected to Yevgeny Prigozhin — the patron of PMC Wagner, the mercenary organization, and sponsor of the Internet Research Agency, which has been accused of meddling in the United States elections. ” The military’s performance in the Ukraine invasion was foreshadowed by the fact that just a few days after the first attacks, Russia, the greatest fuel exporter in Europe, had army vehicles stuck on the road for lack of gas. The country uses tanks dating back from the 1980s and earlier. And of course it has absolutely no regard for information security, which is why social media has so many examples of Russian soldiers calling home from war zones. So if everyone on YouTube knows where the Russians are and what they’re doing, certainly the Ukrainian Armed Forces do.

So you have a Russian invader force that is easily monitored by Ukraine, poorly equipped, poorly organized, with no one knowing what they’re doing, no chain of command who can tell grunts what the mission is and what to do if conditions change, no one cares about anything besides getting through the day or how much they can scam from the war zone, and no one really wants to be there besides Vladimir Putin. And every day their support network is being hammered by Ukraine so it would be that much harder to hold a position once Ukraine actually advances. And then one day, they advance.

The end result was the ultimate example of “quiet quitting.”

Putin says on one hand that Ukraine is essentially Russia and there is no such thing as Ukraine, but then he forgot why you don’t want to start a war with Russia. Even if YOU ARE Russia.

Moreover, like any good fascist, Putin seems to think that that which he wishes to be so therefore is so. He seems to think that because the “traditional Russia” exists in his mind, that his country still has the tools of traditional Russia, namely an inexhaustible manpower reserve. Like, the Germans could kill all the Russians they wanted and there would still be more. That’s not the case any more, and it hasn’t been the case for quite some time. According to Wikipedia: “From the 1990s to 2001, Russia’s death rate had exceeded its birth rate, which has been called a demographic crisis by analysts. Subsequently, the nation has an ageing population, with the median age of the country being 40.3 years. In 2009, Russia recorded annual population growth for the first time in fifteen years; and during the mid-2010s, Russia had seen increased population growth due to declining death rates, increased birth rates and increased immigration. However, since 2020, due to excess deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s population has undergone its largest peacetime decline in recorded history. In 2020, the total fertility rate across Russia was estimated to be 1.5 children born per woman, which is below the replacement rate of 2.1 and about equal to the European average.” Also, in 1941, the Russian fertility rate (number of children born to each woman) was 4.6. In 1945 it was 1.92. The previously higher fertility rates did not lead to an overall population increase because of Russia’s Civil War, the two world wars and “political killings”.
This is of course why Putin invaded Ukraine with a peacetime army not nearly the size needed to subdue the population and army of Ukraine, and the failure of that was not even so much because of not having 300,000 more men but because Russia didn’t have the supplies to cover the force it did have.

Which all adds up to the fact that Russia simply doesn’t have the wherewithal to run a military the size of the Soviet Union. Heck, the Soviet Union couldn’t afford a military the size of the Soviet Union’s, which was a large part of why the Cold War ended.

Less than two days after appearing at the battlefield in Bakhmut, Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy made a surprise flight (most likely unannounced for security reasons) to Washington DC, appearing at a press conference with President Biden on December 21 to petition the US government for more military support. He then appeared to a joint session of Congress, much as Winston Churchill spoke to Congress just after Pearl Harbor, the difference being that Churchill probably had less fascist sympathizers on the Republican side of the aisle. But Zelenskyy said at one point that most Ukrainians would be celebrating Christmas this holiday by candlelight, not out of sentiment, but because of Russian attacks on their infrastructure. But he continued, “we will celebrate Christmas, and even if there is no electricity, the light of our faith in ourselves will not be put out.”

It gets to a point that applies to both Ukrainians and Russians this winter, which one of the MSNBC talking heads made when they found out about Zelenskyy’s visit Wednesday morning. Quoting Napoleon, he said: “In war, the moral is to the physical as three is to one.”

MAGAGA!!!

“And so the first returns are in, and the Silly Party has taken Leicester! What do you think of that- Norman?”

“Well, yes, the election went much as I predicted, except that the Silly Party won.”

-“Election Night”, Monty Python’s Flying Circus

So now, finally, the 2022 midterms are over. In the Georgia runoff, incumbent Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock won – barely – against college football star and Trump friend Herschel Walker, who got a huge amount of Republican turnout despite or likely because being as dumb as an entire store full of left shoes and picked only because Trump wanted him and the rest of the Republicans thought this was the ideal Black candidate. If nothing else, we now know why it’s better to be a werewolf than a vampire: Warnock is an ordained minister, and Clerics can’t turn werewolves.

Now, given that even before this, Democrats had managed to keep 50 seats in the Senate and held the House Republicans to a five-seat majority (who probably aren’t in consensus about their leadership) the conventional wisdom from everyone was that Donald Trump was to blame for pushing a whole bunch of election-liar candidates who wanted to skew state governments to make sure no one could elect Democrats again. That and, the Alito Court’s decision to strike down Roe v. Wade attracted a surprising amount of anger. Well, it surprised Republicans, anyway. Hey, Mr. Alito, it turns out that women had the right to choose after all. Maybe while you were obviating the 14th Amendment and completely ignoring the Ninth, you could have used your magical legal bullshit to eliminate the 19th Amendment and take away women’s right to vote. It would have made things so much easier for your Party.

Usually in a midterm election, voters kick out the party in power. Except, people perceived, not just because of the Dobbs decision, that the party in power isn’t so much the Biden Democrats as the Trump Republicans. Supposedly even before the election, Trump told insiders that creating a pro-life supermajority on the Supreme Court wasn’t going to help him politically, and it’s another one of the factors that pin the blame on him for Republican performance.

That’s one of the reasons why Republicans supposedly begged the former Russian Viceroy to hold off on announcing a re-election campaign until after the election, but just one week afterward, November 15, he made this big presentation at Mar-a-Lago and announced he was running to stay out of prison for President of the United States. Those who actually bothered to watch said it was a great example of what Trump used to call “low energy.” Such that the press caught some people trying to leave the room.

Anyway, somewhere inside a speech that was so wandering and tedious that even Laura Ingraham cut away from it, Trump said he was going to “make America great and glorious again.”

MAGAGA!

Isn’t that Lady Gaga’s final form?

But the problem with paying any attention to this at all is that I simply don’t have time to. In the time between the general election, the Trump announcement and the Georgia runoff, Trump actually managed to get himself involved in multiple fuckups. On the way to Make America Gross And Ghetto Again, Trump decided to host Kanye West at Mar-a-Lago. Kanye West, who now legally goes by “Ye.” (I assume this is supposed to be ‘yay’ as in the last syllable, but I pronounce it ‘yee’ as in Ye Gads.) He has recently been accompanied everywhere by “traditional Catholic” and white supremacist Nick Fuentes, acting as Ye’s wannabe Salacious Crumb. If you don’t know who Fuentes is, congratulations, you have a life. If you actually want to know, just do a Google search on the phrase WHERE THE FUCK IS YOUR CHIN? Anyway, Kanye has been erratic for quite some time, as anybody who follows hip-hop could tell you, but he really started acting crazy – by Kanye standards – when he twitted that he was going to go “death con 3 on JEWISH PEOPLE”. Except DEFCON is an abbreviation and he actually spelled it ‘death’. You would think a black man would know how to spell DEF. Whatever. It got to where Ye and Fuentes appeared on Alex Jones’ show (with Ye wearing full-body clothing and a full mask with zip holes for the eyes, apparently to keep TheJews from injecting him with nanotech) and everyone thought, “Wow, I hope Alex Jones can talk some sense into this guy.”

Ye, like Trump, was also supported by Elon Musk at Twitter at least until Ye said he would allow the banned Alex Jones to post from his account, posted a swastika inside a Star of David, and when threatened by Musk, posted his “final tweet” as a picture of Musk getting hosed down at the beach. (‘I love free speech so much, I’m letting Q people and racists back!’ ‘Hey boss, Kanye posted a pic of you looking whiter than a night light.’ ‘Ban his ass.’) Not that Elon gave up on trying to help Trump: This last week he made an arrangement with Gonzo journalist Matt Taibbi to release “The Twitter Files” – on Twitter – being a set of internal communications where Twitter staff debated whether to release emails from Hunter Biden’s pilfered laptop three weeks before the 2020 election. They eventually decided against doing so, but without consulting then-head and Twitter founder Jack Dorsey, who now calls their decision a mistake. The staff had also consulted left-wing free speech advocate Congressman Ro Khanna (D.-California) who recommended against killing the story.
And you know where this is going. In order to Make America Goonish And Garish Again, Trump committed his compound fuckup. Posting on his Truf Censhal platform, he said, “So, with the revelation of MASSIVE & WIDESPREAD FRAUD & DECEPTION in working closely with Big Tech Companies, the DNC, & the Democrat Party, do you throw the Presidential Election Results of 2020 OUT and declare the RIGHTFUL WINNER, or do you have a NEW ELECTION? A Massive Fraud of this type and magnitude allows for the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution. Our great ‘Founders’ did not want, and would not condone, False & Fraudulent Elections!”

This has made a lot of people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move.

But here is the crux of the issue that lit the fuse on Trump’s tampon: “The Biden campaign asked Twitter to review five tweets, which were later deleted. Taibbi did not disclose the content of the Biden campaign requests, presenting only their URLs; …four tweets contained nude photos and videos of Hunter Biden, which violate Twitter policy and California law as revenge porn.” Again, the joke to me is that Twitter HAS a policy. Based on history, especially now, I thought anybody could post snuff films and prolapse porn and it’s all good.

But apparently Hunter Biden’s penis doesn’t impress most Americans as much as it impresses Republicans. Especially when the main story of this became not an alleged collusion to keep the Biden family from being smeared, but the owner of the Republican Party demanding to terminate the Constitution, in so doing violating his previous oath and creating incriminating evidence in any case against him for the January 6 riot.

Now, the fact that a lot of this mishegoss involved James Baker, a Twitter legal counsel who was also part of James Comey’s FBI investigation into Trump caused a lot of the Right to think, “Oh, praise Jesus, we’ve finally got something on these Demonrats.” But Tuesday the Trump Organization tax fraud trial in New York returned 17 charges as 17 guilty verdicts. And while Trump himself was not personally indicted, suddenly Hunter Biden and his Dad didn’t seem so crooked and evil anymore.

All of which – and it’s a lot, even for this guy – have caused the political-media complex to think that Trump is at his weakest moment, and that if there was ever a time for the Republican Party to get rid of him, it’s now.

HaHaHa.

No.

Sure the smart Republicans are saying they should get rid of Trump. The smart people have known that Trump is bad news for years. The smart people aren’t the ones running the Republican Party. The Party isn’t run by heartless manipulators like Mitch McConnell and Rupert Murdoch. It isn’t run by functionaries like Paul Ryan or Kevin McCarthy. It’s run by people like Lauren “Bubblehead” Boebert and Matt “Morrissey Called, He Wants His Hairstyle Back” Gaetz. People who either are as dumb and venal as they seem or are putting on an act to appeal to voters who are even worse.

They dismiss the critiques of liberals, “liberal” apparently being anybody who thinks that a mob coup is illegal. They say it all comes down to “Orange Man Bad.” Well, YES. Orange Man Bad. Also: White slavery bad. Leprosy bad. Cancer bad. Why are we debating the given? The problem is not Orange Man Bad, the problem is that the modern Republican Party could defend and support cancer as long as cancer helped them ban abortion.

Trump’s sorta like Hitler. Except Hitler liked dogs. And he served in the military. And he didn’t cheat on his girlfriend.
Now you may be going, “No, No. Stop. Why are you acting like Trump is worse than Hitler? Hitler was Hitler.” Exactly. I’m saying, if the Trumpniks want to sell my country to some idiot clownboy who’s not even AS good as Hitler, maybe we should cut the Germans some slack.

Maybe we should quit thinking America is “exceptional” and admit we were just lucky.

Maybe, just as people of Russian and Chinese and German ethnicity can move to this country and adopt that can-do, optimistic, individualist American spirit, so it is possible for Americans to adopt the sullen, collectivist, Sklavmoral mindset of Russians or Nazi-era Germans, if the local culture changes enough.

Trump might be a loathsome mass of all potential human vices, congealed into something resembling a humanoid form, but if one were to judge from his positions prior to getting into politics, you could see why some made the case that he could be a good leader. He didn’t always agree with Republican orthodoxy and he clearly didn’t care about following the party’s internal political correctness. Unfortunately what seemed like pragmatism was simply not having a moral core beyond “anything that gets me what I want is good”.

Even more unfortunately, that description also fits most of the people who worship Trump, including all the Good Christians (TM) who were amazingly eager to discard their decorum and moralism as long as government trampled over all that procedural stuff that conservatives used to favor. Like, the Constitution.

For all the huffing and handwringing in the media and the Republican Party about Trump palling around with terrorists and wanting to get rid of the Constitution, they really shouldn’t be acting so surprised. And both the Republican establishment and the liberal media should quit acting like this is gonna make a difference. You notice that for the last six years, Trump has always been pushing it. The “good” Republicans and establishment people (including people in his own inner circle) have always tried to pull him back towards respectability. That never works. He always pulls them further and further into the slime. Because he’s been betting that they need him more than he needs them, and so far, that bluff has not been called.

Because if it is, Trump can always take his ball and go home, that “ball” being his voter base. And for both moral and long-term practical reasons, the Republican Party really should cut him off and make it clear that they don’t want to have the kind of people that Trump encourages in the Party. But the implication there is that without those people, they won’t even be as competitive in national elections as they are now, cause this is the base they’ve been cultivating for years before him. He simply said the sort of stuff they were saying to themselves and wouldn’t admit cause that would make them unpopular with the rest of the country. Trump showed them they didn’t have to care about that. He gave the base the freedom to be their worst selves. He gave the base the freedom to be … base.

As I say, it’s horrible enough that these guys emulate the Nazis, but the problem is they’re so BAD at it.

Not even the original Nazis. I mean, back in the ’70s, the ACLU took flak because they defended the right of Illinois Nazis to protest in a Jewish neighborhood in Skokie. Hey, remember when that sort of thing WASN’T tolerated by an establishment political party? But this is them:

Look at these guys. Clean-cut, uniformed, capable of marching in formation, and I can’t see from here, but the slogans they’re carrying are probably grammatically correct.

Now think of the guys who stormed the Capitol. Fat, slovenly, unshaven and just bringing whatever odd gear they had to the riot like it was a BYOB (Bring Your Own Bombs).

I’m just saying, our standards for fascism have really gone downhill.

I mean, if Nazi Germany invaded the Soviet Union and their tanks had the little metal testicles dangling off the back, that would be the Republican Party right now.

Again, Trump IS the base and the base IS Trump. Who in the Republican political class is more like the Republican Party than Trump? Even if they trained to walk with their knuckles at waist level and learned how to talk English gooder, they wouldn’t mean it. And the more civilized Republicans are no longer able to cover for them, because the agenda has been laid bare. And Democrats have been stewing over all those Supreme Court appointees mouthing “settled law” so many times, even they might have figured out they should quit trusting conservatives.


So why NOT keep supporting Trump? The alternative would be to… actually come up with common-sense, centrist and right-wing ideas that would appeal to the general public. But then they’d have to admit the general public into the movement, and then they would no longer have the freedom to be their worst selves. If they could appeal to the wider public, they wouldn’t be who they are.

So for the next two years (at least) they’re going to keep goosestepping behind Trump so he can Make America Gallant And Goofus Again. Reagan would not have recognized this party, but Barry Goldwater would have. He was the one who said “Mark my word, if and when these preachers get control of the party, and they’re sure trying to do so, it’s going to be a terrible damn problem. Frankly, these people frighten me. Politics and governing demand compromise. But these Christians believe they are acting in the name of God, so they can’t and won’t compromise. I know, I’ve tried to deal with them.” But in a lesser-known quote on similar lines, he said: “Those who seek absolute power, even though they seek it to do what they regard as good, are simply demanding the right to enforce their own version of heaven on earth. And let me remind you, they are the very ones who always create the most hellish tyrannies. Absolute power does corrupt, and those who seek it must be suspect and must be opposed. Their mistaken course stems from false notions of equality, ladies and gentlemen. Equality, rightly understood, as our founding fathers understood it, leads to liberty and to the emancipation of creative differences. Wrongly understood, as it has been so tragically in our time, it leads first to conformity and then to despotism. Fellow Republicans, it is the cause of Republicanism to resist concentrations of power, private or public, which enforce such conformity and inflict such despotism. It is the cause of Republicanism to ensure that power remains in the hands of the people.”

But this party seems to think that’s commie wokeness or whatever their influencers have told them to hate this week.

It continues to marginalize conservatives and libertarians like myself, who stupidly believed that the Right was about creating a limited constitutional republic and free-market economy, as opposed to trolling the libs and giving more power to the already privileged because one identifies with them as opposed to your fellow working stiffs. Cause apparently the toadies and trolls are more numerous than the liberty caucus, or at least more motivated.

Unfortunately for them, the last election, which should have been the best opportunity for Republicans to make gains against a flawed and unpopular Biden Administration, demonstrated that this approach isn’t going to work with the voting public, even with all the state and federal rules in their favor. The only route left is another coup. In which case, they have to hope that their militia are not as incompetent as their lawyers and legislators have proven to be. But you know what they say: “A failed coup that isn’t punished isn’t a failure, it’s just a rehearsal.”

So step up, Republicans, it’s time to Make America Greedy And Gullible Again!
Or is that Make America Gluttonous And Grabby Again?

We’re still working this out.

A Sermon To The Republican Party

From the First Book of Samuel, Chapter 8 (King James Version):

And it came to pass, when Samuel was old, that he made his sons judges over Israel.

Now the name of his firstborn was Joel; and the name of his second, Abiah: they were judges in Beersheba.

And his sons walked not in his ways, but turned aside after lucre, and took bribes, and perverted judgment.

Then all the elders of Israel gathered themselves together, and came to Samuel unto Ramah,

And said unto him, Behold, thou art old, and thy sons walk not in thy ways: now make us a king to judge us like all the nations.

But the thing displeased Samuel, when they said, Give us a king to judge us. And Samuel prayed unto the Lord.

And the Lord said unto Samuel, Hearken unto the voice of the people in all that they say unto thee: for they have not rejected thee, but they have rejected me, that I should not reign over them.

According to all the works which they have done since the day that I brought them up out of Egypt even unto this day, wherewith they have forsaken me, and served other gods, so do they also unto thee.

Now therefore hearken unto their voice: howbeit yet protest solemnly unto them, and shew them the manner of the king that shall reign over them.

10 And Samuel told all the words of the Lord unto the people that asked of him a king.

11 And he said, This will be the manner of the king that shall reign over you: He will take your sons, and appoint them for himself, for his chariots, and to be his horsemen; and some shall run before his chariots.

12 And he will appoint him captains over thousands, and captains over fifties; and will set them to ear his ground, and to reap his harvest, and to make his instruments of war, and instruments of his chariots.

13 And he will take your daughters to be confectionaries, and to be cooks, and to be bakers.

14 And he will take your fields, and your vineyards, and your oliveyards, even the best of them, and give them to his servants.

15 And he will take the tenth of your seed, and of your vineyards, and give to his officers, and to his servants.

16 And he will take your menservants, and your maidservants, and your goodliest young men, and your asses, and put them to his work.

17 He will take the tenth of your sheep: and ye shall be his servants.

18 And ye shall cry out in that day because of your king which ye shall have chosen you; and the Lord will not hear you in that day.

19 Nevertheless the people refused to obey the voice of Samuel; and they said, Nay; but we will have a king over us;

20 That we also may be like all the nations; and that our king may judge us, and go out before us, and fight our battles.

21 And Samuel heard all the words of the people, and he rehearsed them in the ears of the Lord.

22 And the Lord said to Samuel, Hearken unto their voice, and make them a king. And Samuel said unto the men of Israel, Go ye every man unto his city.

The Word of the Lord.

And like I said, why should I believe this stuff when clearly you don’t?

People I Can Be Thankful For

If the rule you followed brought you to this, of what use was the rule?

-Cormac McCarthy, No Country For Old Men

Of course this is the week that we’re all supposed to give thanks for what good fortune we had this year and to specify what exactly we are thankful for. Off the top of my head, I can give thanks to at least two people this year.

The first, perhaps not surprisingly, is Donald Trump. The Republican Party has failed to gain more than ten seats in a Congressional midterm where a Democrat was president, and Trumpnik Republican candidates have largely failed to win key races for state government. This historic failure to perform is almost entirely because the Party felt the need to stay in Trump’s good graces and so agreed to nominate election-liar candidates like Adam Laxalt for US Senator in Nevada, Doug Mastriano as Governor in Pennsylvania, and pretty much every Republican in Arizona. All of whom lost.

Now, of course Trump was already planning to announce his wonderful re-election campaign to be Vladimir Putin’s Viceroy for Russian North America, and he was hoping he would get a huge boost from supporting all these candidates who were supposed to sweep against an unpopular Democratic Party and Biden Administration. It turns out, there’s one thing more unpopular than the Biden Democratic Party, and that’s the Trump Republican Party. So that meant Liddle Donnie Clown Boy didn’t get the big push he was hoping for in his campaign announcement. Worse than that, the truly amazing performance of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and some other Republicans (like Georgia Governor Brian Kemp) who are just as authoritarian as Trump but not as erratic mean that for the first time since 2016, some Republicans are actually advocating for someone else to be President. Of course Trump has to run anyway, basically to stay out of prison, but it’s getting that much harder. In a further act of disloyalty, “his” Supreme Court ordered that he must hand over his tax returns to a House investigative committee. The fact that Democrats won’t have charge of the House after December doesn’t matter, because they can share those documents with Senate committees, and the Senate hasn’t changed over to the Republicans. Again, largely because of the Party going along with Trump’s incompetence.

None of all the establishment Republican huffing and puffing against Trump is going to make much difference, because the professionals haven’t been in charge for a while. I plan to write in much greater detail about this subject, but I am thankful for Donald Trump because he always wants to make everything about him, even when he isn’t on the ballot. And by forcing his party to go along with his Big Lie, he did indeed make the election all about him, because everyone knew that all of those Church of Trump candidates for Governor and Secretary of State were going to change the rules to protect their party, and Trump in particular, from competition in 2024. So he made this election matter about as much as 2024, and a whole bunch of people, probably including some conservatives, realized we had to put a stop to that campaign this year. And we did. And in the process we made it a little less likely that Trump’s scheme to grab power again will work.

Again, none of this is going to stop “the base” from goosestepping in line to elect Trump so that they’ll never have to vote again, but that’s the other reason to be thankful. If Trump’s lies and schemes forced the non-Republican part of the country to move actively against him – which required acting against his Party – he’s forcing Republican and conservative influencers to consider if their slavish loyalty was worth it in the long run. A party that literally is only a Party of Trump, that is only about catering to his whims and delusions, cannot survive. And yet it has taken over precisely because celebrity worship and irrationality are more prized in the public sphere than professionalism and intellect. To really address the broader problem we need to address a culture that would make somebody like Trump president, which is where I get to the other person I want to thank:

Elon Musk.

I have already gone over how much Musk is fucking over Twitter, but apparently he’s not done. In his continuing tilt to squeeze a profit out of a medium that has never been profitable, Musk decided to fire a whole bunch of technical employees only to ask them to come back because they were fired “by mistake” or because he needed them to handle software issues that he didn’t realize needed to be dealt with. It turns out two of these people never worked there in the first place and were just trolling the company. I had said that the Occam’s Razor explanation for Musk’s erratic behavior is that he made a deal without knowing what he was doing or how to run this particular company, and he is hardly disabusing me of that notion.

I now put Elon Musk on a list with Rudy Guiliani and Vladimir Putin – men whom I used to think were intelligent. It turns out they’re just latter-day cases of the Peter Principle. The Peter Principle, for those who didn’t grow up in the ’70s, states that “In a hierarchy, every employee tends to rise to his level of incompetence.” Consequently, “In time, every post tends to be occupied by an employee who is incompetent to carry out its duties.” Like, maybe Vladimir Putin’s skill set at destroying opposition on a political level led him to believe he could invade the largest country in Europe other than Russia, with draftees and trainees and inadequate air support and logistics for the operation, and get the capital to fall in three days. Almost a year after the fact, that doesn’t seem to be the case.

Of course Trump is an even bigger example of the Peter Principle, but the difference is that Musk used to be considered competent. As in, even the people who didn’t like his management of Tesla or Space X didn’t think he was running them into the ground. But now the Tesla stock he was using to back up his takeover has gone down $700 billion in value from a year ago.

I can’t remember where, but someone recently said that Musk’s Twitter purchase was like a gambling addict buying the race track. This is about what you would expect. But I am thankful because not only is Musk wrecking Twitter, he is wrecking its credibility as an information source in the event that someone else takes charge. Liberals have been complaining for some time that Twitter is a monopoly, as if it were the only company providing a posting medium and as if that were the same thing as a public information service. But Musk’s utter disregard for information security really is a problem for anybody who wants to post on Twitter, and illustrates the problem we face when such a large and influential company is suddenly taken over by a capricious nitwit. But the difference between the Twitter base and the Republican Party is that social media users really do have other options. The one currently getting a lot of the buzz is Mastodon. The difference between that service and Twitter is that Mastodon is open-source. A Reason Magazine article explains it this way: “Essentially, Mastodon is a federation of independent but interconnected servers. It’s common to see Mastodon users refer to it as the “fediverse.” For the most part, folks in one part of the Mastodon fediverse can see and interact with folks in all other parts of the Mastodon fediverse.” One poster said, “This really isn’t a place of influencers – at least in its current iteration. If you don’t want to reply to comments on your posts you probably shouldn’t post. This (is) engagement and community not hot takes and “influence” that can be monetarized by advertisers.”

Of course that last bit may illustrate why Twitter got as toxic as it did and why all the people complaining about it didn’t leave until it became more liability than it was worth.

As Adam Conover said recently regarding Musk in particular, “(Sam Bankman-Fried), Elon and (Mark Zuckerberg) haven’t been hurt by their apocalyptic failures, but their image has. Everyone from the media to the government can finally see the truth. And that’s a good thing, because if we remember that these guys are actually dumbasses, then we can beat them.”

Of course that’s the bright-side way to look at it. The other way to look at it is that these con men got as far as they did because the majority who gave them power are that much bigger dumbasses.

Death Of A Twit

On Friday November 11, it was Veterans’ Day, when we honor our veterans, including those who died in service. And I checked my cellphone as I was getting out of bed, and found out that Kevin Conroy, the definitive Batman voice actor, had died. Not only that, Gallagher died.

Gallagher doesn’t die. I always thought that 50 years from now I would be dead and cremated and Gallagher would still be touring the clubs, his skeletal arms lifting the mallet to crush watermelons with maniacal focus, his remaining hairs wisping behind him like the angry ghosts of better comedians.

It’s like when I found out Lou Reed died. Once I was watching a concert video with him and somebody asked, “Who is that old guy? He looks like he’s dying, like he’s starving to death.” And I said, “No, he’s not dying, he’s just Lou Reed!” Lou Reed doesn’t die, he just gets homelier and homelier! And then he really died. Wow. Man, when Lou Reed died, it was a sad day for trans junkie hookers everywhere.

But at this morbid moment, I can at least take solace in an impending death that will actually do the world some good.

Twitter.

People have been bagging on Elon Musk for a while now, and his latest tilt towards the LOL Right has only confirmed why so many people hated him in the first place even as the rest of us admired his entrepreneurial moxie. But his latest and biggest mistake was sealing the deal to buy out Twitter even as he’d found out early on that it wasn’t profitable enough to be worth the investment. And so he is apparently deciding to make it an actual business. And in the process he is doing more to destroy the Twitter brand than he could if he were trying to liquidate Twitter on purpose, and I can’t prove that that isn’t what he’s really doing.

The first thing Musk did was to fire its previous executives including its general counsel, cause I guess Twitter had too much content supervision. Apparently, Elon’s takeover was so poorly done that the Twitter company got locked out of its own account for 12 days because login details had not been shared for the transition.

But the biggest policy change Musk made was to the status of “the blue checkmark.” For most of Twitter’s history, having a blue checkmark next to your account name marked you as the verified user and protected against fakes. To get it, you had to fill out a form. Most public figures’ accounts, like the accounts of the President (and the individual who is or used to be the president) are verified this way. I did not know this until recently because I don’t give a rat’s tail about Twitter and until now it really didn’t matter. But now Musk, officially “Chief Twit”, decided his main goal with the site was to monetize a communications medium that he’d sunk $44 billion into. He told everybody that in order to keep their blue checkmarks, they’d have to pay him $20 per month. And a lot of those verified posters pointed out it was their traffic that built the site, with Stephen King saying “Fuck that, they should pay ME.” So Musk haggled himself down to $8. But then he said that with the monthly fee service, which he christened “Twitter Blue”, you got to use after-post edits and other features that previously weren’t in Twitter before. That’s good. Although most of these features are on Facebook for free. But the company seemed more concerned with monetizing something that had previously been free but optional than with screening out spam/bot accounts, which everyone agrees are a problem on Twitter and that Musk has promised to address as highest priority. Since anybody could “verify” they were who they said they were by paying for the privilege, you had a whole bunch of people doing Elon Musk clone accounts and saying goofy things to demean his image, which meant that Mr. Free Speech banned a whole bunch of people and specified that any such fake account that is not specifically labeled “PARODY” will also be banned. But that wasn’t it. You had another guy who has taken the handle of Jesus Christ (‘Carpenter. Healer. God’), and somebody who took a verified Nintendo account and used it to post an account picture of Super Mario giving the finger.

Of course, if I was running Nintendo and I were running their Twitter account, showing Mario giving the finger would be exactly what I’d do. But maybe that’s why I’m not running Nintendo.

If you believe in free speech, that means you protect the integrity of free speech. Even for corporations. We have a right to state our opinion and not have it mistaken for someone else’s, or have someone else claiming to be us and giving us issues. Like, with Eli Lilly having to explain that insulin ISN’T free now.

Somewhat predictably, Elon backed off the Twitter Blue spiel once it became clear how much legal liability it was creating.

Not to mention, Musk is so hopped up on cost controls that he is basically filling all the executive posts by himself while expecting his people to give up work-from-home arrangements and go without days off. Which is further evidence that he’s running things into the ground deliberately, but then he wouldn’t be making things so hard for himself in the short term. The Occam’s Razor explanation would be that he just doesn’t know what he’s doing.

Somebody joked, “Hey Elon, you should buy Chik-fil-A and Hobby Lobby next.” The difference being that those businesses are actually making lots of money. Which among other things means that they wouldn’t have been vulnerable to a takeover because they don’t need a buyout.

As much as I hate to say, maybe liberals were right about libertarianism. Because a totally free, unregulated society still requires some level of implied rules that everyone voluntarily agrees to, and the reason we have all the damn rules we have is apparently because some people need to be told the obvious. Like “Don’t shit where you eat” and “Don’t be a racist moron.” The lesson with Twitter is that however much you believe in free speech and a marketplace of ideas, if your institution doesn’t adhere to a minimal set of principles and make them clear to everyone who wants to participate, then any jokester or opportunist can take over the medium and undermine it to the point that no one can trust it or take it seriously. Y’know, like what happened with the actual Libertarian Party.

Once again: Nothing is a priori. Nothing in this world sprang fully formed and equipped straight from the head of a god. People assume that Twitter is or should be some ideal public medium that fits their standard of what the ideal is, when Jack Dorsey and his people just built it as a small-scale, personal post platform, and because of that very informality, it took off. It was never really intended to become a profit instrument, much less the world’s “town square.” But that is what the community did with it.

And just as some in the community think of Twitter as an objective communications medium when it was never really intended to be such, Musk seems to think that because he paid many billions of dollars for Twitter that it ought to turn a profit. Again, Twitter only has value because of the people who are on it, and that value doesn’t necessarily translate directly into money. Remember what they say about social media: If you’re not paying for the product then you ARE the product. Someone on Pajiba pointed out, “If Twitter goes down, so does the easiest method Ukrainians have to inform the world of Russia’s war crimes, and an easy way for labor unions, dissidents, and other folks without much power to organize efforts. Twitter may have more problems than solutions, but it does have value. Or it did, before Musk’s ongoing crises gave him reason to smash it.”

A while ago, I concluded my opinion of Twitter with the following: “media critic Matt Zoller Seitz was quoted (from Twitter) saying “I’ve said it before, and I’ll repeat it now: if a superior alternative to Twitter appeared tomorrow, I’d be gone from here in a heartbeat.” My advice to Seitz would be to get together with like-minded people and come to a consensus about what “a superior alternative to Twitter” means, and then find people of means to finance it and experts to create it. My personal goal is to make enough money to where I can buy out Twitter with the specific purpose of destroying the website. Either that, or use the space for something more ennobling, like bumfights or fetish porn.”

Somebody still needs to figure out what a better alternative to Twitter would be and whether it would be more feasible as a profit site or a non-profit medium. As it is, I’m predicting Twitter bumfights and porn any week now.

The Party of Chump

Karma Police, arrest this man,

He talks in math, he buzzes like a fridge

He’s like a detuned radio

Karma Police, arrest this girl

Her Hitler hairdo is makin’ me feel ill

And we have crashed her party

-Radiohead, “Karma Police”

This is where we are after Election Day Tuesday.

In the House, several races, mainly in California, have yet to be called, yet because of Florida (see below) and surprisingly, New York, Republicans have made enough gains that they will probably get the chamber. But they probably won’t have a double-digit margin and might not get a net gain at all.

In the Senate:

Georgia has to be set aside for the moment because even though incumbent Democrat Rev. Raphael Warnock is leading, he has less than 50 percent of the vote, and so the race is going to a runoff by Georgia state rules, just like Warnock had the last time. And yeah, liberals, let’s boo the Libertarian candidate for even existing, but you would have had a similar result if he wasn’t there. The real problem is that anybody would vote for Herschel Walker in the first place.

Ron Johnson has just won his race in Wisconsin, so the Senate is back to 48-48.

The Alaska race is ranked-choice, but the two leading candidates are both Republican, being, Trumpnik Kelly Tshibaka and the incumbent (relatively moderate) Lisa Murkowski. So the Senate is still at least 49 seats Republican, it’s just a question of how much of a Trumpnik the Alaska Senator is.

So now it comes down to- Arizona and Nevada. Where they’ve already said it’s going to take several days because of the way everything is counted. But this is how the Church of Trump can make a case that everything is Rigged and Stolen. Professional liars know how to conceal their poison in a coating of truth, and the reason they can say the system is rigged is because some election systems really are complicated and obscure. Right now in Nevada at least we’re waiting on a bunch of mail-in votes, some of which legally cannot be counted until Saturday, and that’s the only hope that incumbent Senator Catherine Cortez Masto has against Adam Laxalt.

Republicans now need both Arizona and Nevada to secure a majority. The most likely result at the moment is that Cortez Masto loses to Laxalt (fuck) and incumbent Senator Mark Kelly holds out against Trumpnik Blake Masters. That then makes it Democrats 49, Republicans 50. If Warnock then wins the Georgia runoff it goes back to a tie, which is where we were, and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris means Democrats keep control of the Senate. If Democrats keep both those seats, it’s a Democratic majority whether Warnock wins or not, and if he does win, it’s Democrats with 51 seats. (Of course, the phrase ‘Senator Herschel Walker’ is the worst-case scenario in any event.)

So, basically back to a draw in the Senate and the preponderance of votes will probably give Republicans the House. So why is everyone in the Democratic Party so (unusually) cheerful?

Because the President’s party usually does a lot, lot worse in the midterms. 2022 was the best performance by the President’s party in midterms since 1950. The Michigan state legislature went Democrat for the first time in 40 years. Here’s a bit from the right-leaning Washington Examiner: “Things generally went well where the Republican was perceived as competent and not a servant to Trump — otherwise, not so much,” said one GOP operative speaking on the condition of anonymity in order to reflect candidly on the results. “The GOP should’ve become the party of Brian Kemp and Ron DeSantis yesterday, but it damn well better become it today.

“Trump endorsed over 330 candidates, held 30 rallies, and raised millions of dollars over the course of the midterm elections. The former president intended to use Tuesday’s results to strengthen his position within the party by delivering wins for the candidates he endorsed. But with the party’s underperformance, there appears to be growing frustration at the former president for endorsing what many see as a “slate of bad candidates.”

It’s time for Trump to step aside. Many of these races should have been easy wins for Republicans with record inflation and President Joe Biden’s sagging approval ratings. Instead, last night was an absolute nightmare scenario,” said an adviser to a Republican senator, who did not want to be identified. “I personally do not know of one person who still feels confident in his leadership after last night.

All that leads me to one conclusion, Republicans, and the conclusion is this: You suck. GAD, you suck SO hard. The Republican Party sucks harder than Alina Lopez at an all-Black gangbang.

I guess Mitch McConnell was right when he said candidate “quality” would probably stop his team from getting the Senate back. Who knows where Republicans would be if their political standard wasn’t “Arabic numerals are a Muslim conspiracy against Roman letters, and the heliocentric theory is a Communist subversion they teach our kids at Drag Queen Story Hour”?

I believe that the results confirm both of my initial impressions before Election Day. One, that the pollsters and other media were creating reasons to make the Republican candidates more competitive than they arguably should have been on their merits, and two, regardless of how much people hate the Democrats, they know they can’t trust the Republicans. Americans are tired of this shit. We are tired of the “circus.” We are tired of the designated conservative party being like the Nazis, only crazy and racist. We are tired of every aspect of public life being about our perfect little boy who is the center of the universe. We are tired of this spoiled little brat who poisons the air with his malice and lies, who constantly whines and hollers for attention, and maybe little boy should shut his fucking yap and GO TO FUCKING BED.

If there was any place where Republicans met and exceeded expectations, it was Florida, where Val Demmings seemed competitive against incumbent Republican Senator Marco Rubio but ended up losing by almost 10 points. Republican Governor Ron DeSantis beat Charlie Crist almost 60-40. And perhaps ironically, it’s all because of Hispanics. But then, liberals should have learned by now that Hispanics are not all the same group and do not all act alike any more than Irish and Canadians and Scots and English and Americans all act alike just cause they speak (something like) the same language. Still, I can understand how Florida Cubans and Venezuelan refugees would hate a Democratic party that is, rightly or not, identified with socialists. What I can’t understand is how “anti-socialists” can vote for a party that wants a one-party regime, built around a cult of personality where the Leader tells everyone what they can say, and what they can believe, and punishes business for not obeying his version of political correctness. And this time, I’m not talking about Trump, I’m talking about DeSantis.

So that’s what the setup is going forward. Prior to Tuesday, if DeSantis got re-elected (a damn-near certainty) and Trumpnik candidates did not win across the board (which seemed less likely before Tuesday) that strengthens DeSantis’ position against Trump, when, NOT if, Trump chooses to run for re-election as President. Trumpniks winning more seats would have helped Trump’s case. As it is, Trump has been teasing the press about some “very big announcement” around November 14th, or maybe the 15th, and the fact is, while announcing for President would require campaign finance restrictions that would restrict Trump’s ability to grift, Trump has to run for president again if he wants to stay out of jail. Either that or he gets a suitcase and crashes on Vladimir Putin’s couch, and most of the border traffic for Russia is going in the other direction. Plus which, they don’t really have a McDonald’s anymore.

Now of course, Trump may have competition. And while DeSantis is getting some backing for a presidential run because various right-wingers are also getting tired of Edward Babyhands, I don’t like Ron’s chances.

I mean, I don’t want to favor Trump in any comparison, but he actually has a sense of humor. Granted, this is the sadistic, gloating humor you would expect from a Bond villain who has Daniel Craig strapped to a chair, but it’s something like a sense of humor. Whereas DeSantis always acts like he’s sucking on a lemon, and that’s on his good days. He’s no fun. And most Republicans want to have fun while they’re punishing minorities and pregnant women.

Plus which, if we can confirm that most of the success that Republicans did have this year was despite Trump, as with the re-election of Trump heretics Brian Kemp as Georgia Governor and Brad Raffensberger as Secretary of State, it may be that in some races people actually care more about who would do a better job with the state than all the culture war stuff. I am frankly not sure if DeSantis has done anything to deserve his local popularity besides lean on all the culture war stuff. And if that’s all he has, he really can’t compete with Trump, who wasn’t competition for him before simply because Trump wasn’t going to run for Florida Governor.

And if that’s all Republicans have, Tuesday proved that it’s just not enough, even with a lot of states ginning the rules to favor them. Kemp and DeSantis did prove that local voters can support Republicans who aren’t Trumpniks. But they still need the national party to win the White House, and the question in the next two years is whether the national party wants to get rid of Trump. My guess is they don’t. My guess is that they keep whipping up their suckers for cash by playing the victims, and any Republican Congress will try to stage show trials against whatever Emmanuel Goldstein Trump wants them to go after that week, and put their reality TV show on the House committee floor in the afternoon so they can go on Fox News in the evening and brag about what a good job they did. It’s a lot more fun (and a lot more lucrative) than actually running a government, which they would know if they ever tried it.

Rick Wilson was right. Everything Trump touches dies. But he didn’t specify that everything Trump touches dies slowly and painfully. I’m okay with the slow part, as long as he and his enablers suffer as much pain as possible in the process. It’s only what they deserve.

So, knowing all the things that could still go wrong before January, let me just seize the moment to say the following:

FUCK YOU TRUMP.

Fuck You, you Russky traitor bitch.

FUCK.
YOU.
UP.
THE.
ASS.

This is what you get

This is what you get

This is what you get-

When you mess with us….

My Impressions

Early voting in Nevada ends Friday. The news leading up to the election is certainly stressful and intense. It shouldn’t be. Simply because Democrats could lose an election when Conventional Wisdom dictates the President’s party is going to lose in the midterms doesn’t mean it’s the figurative end of the world or the end of the republic.

Except, it probably could be.

Remember, the Party of Trump is engaged in an organized effort to install state officials who parrot the dogma that the election was stolen and Trump is the real president, and this effort is strongest in states like Arizona and Nevada where Trump barely (but clearly) lost. Lest one think this is not an organized campaign and that the good little Trumpniks all came to the same conclusion independently, Arizona US Senate candidate Blake Masters actually released a video of him campaigning door-to-door, and while he was out he took a call from Trump who told him, “Look at Kari. [Kari Lake, the Trump candidate for Governor] Kari’s winning with very little money, and if they say, ‘how’s your family?’ she says, ‘the election was rigged and stolen.'” All the proof we need that this really is the catechism of the Church of Trump. Just what you’d expect from a movement that is half fundamentalist cult and half snake-oil racket. Always Be Closing. At least Trump knows that much.

As addled as the Trumpniks may be in, for example, running a country, they have a capacity for long-term strategy and a capacity to change the terms of debate in a way that Democrats have so far been lacking. If they win it will make it that much easier for them to game the system and get their dominus et deus back in the White House, and then it won’t matter if Democrats bounce back in the presidential race after they didn’t feel like voting in the midterms because they weren’t enthused about the party in power. If enough Republicans get enough power in enough states next week, Democrats might never get back in power again.

These are my impressions on how this election is shaping up and how we got here.

The press is engaging in malpractice.

This week Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight made a hypothetical case for how Republicans could actually have a red wave this year, titled “The Case For A Republican Sweep On Election Night.” And I thought to myself, ‘that’s got to be the best news Democrats have had all year.

Silver, you might recall, was pretty optimistic about Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the White House in 2016, even if he also gave Trump a bigger chance than anyone else. And FiveThirtyEight, like most pollsters, was a lot more optimistic about the Democrats’ downballot chances in 2020 than the actual results warranted. After the fact, Politico came up with at least one analysis. “The most likely — if far from certain — culprit for off-kilter polling results is that key groups of people don’t answer polls in the first place. …Decreasing response rates have been a major source of concern for pollsters for more than a decade. But the politicization of polling during the Trump era — including the feedback loop from the former president, who has falsely decried poll results he doesn’t like as “fake” or deliberately aimed at suppressing enthusiasm for answering polls among GOP voters — appears to be skewing the results, with some segment of Republicans refusing to participate in surveys. …The most plausible — yet still unproven — theory is that the voters the polls are reaching are fundamentally different from those they are not. And Trump’s rantings about the polls being “fake” or rigged only exacerbate that problem.”

Politico also noted this year : “For the past week or so, polling averages like RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight have seen a steady stream of surveys from Republican (or Republican-leaning firms). That’s led to a social-media debate over whether the GOP’s uptick in the polls is real — or whether it’s an artifact of which polls are comprising these averages.

“How much of an influence are the Republican polls having? In New Hampshire, four of the last seven polls in the FiveThirtyEight average are from Republican firms. In Pennsylvania, it’s the three most recent polls, and six of the last nine. In Georgia, five of the last seven.” The article also noted that polls achieve substantively different results based on methodology: “(Nevada) Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto and Republican Adam Laxalt were tied in the New York Times/Siena College poll, 47 percent to 47 percent. Another new poll out Monday, an OH Predictive Insights poll conducted for the nonprofit Nevada Independent, showed Cortez Masto barely ahead of Laxalt, 43 percent to 41 percent.

“Again, though both polls point to a close race, the differences in vote share can be explained by different methodological choices. The Independent’s poll included all three third-party candidates, plus Nevada’s unique “none of these candidates” ballot option.

“But the Times poll required respondents to volunteer the names of the third-party candidates, and “none of these candidates,” likely leading to higher vote shares for both major-party hopefuls.”

It recalls the physics problem of how the act of observing a phenomenon changes the nature of what is being observed.

There’s also the fact that, as with the Clinton-Trump race in 2016, you have may one candidate who is unpopular but qualified, or in some races a candidate who is qualified AND popular, against another candidate who is objectively inferior, and the press basically stages things to make the race a lot more suspenseful than it arguably ought to be.

Katie Hobbs is the Democratic candidate for the open Governor seat in Arizona against Kari Lake. Some have compared the race to an NPR public-affairs host going up against a Fox News anchor. Hobbs clearly has no charisma, and apparently no faith in herself. Because she went through all kinds of maneuvers to avoid getting into a debate with Lake, and in such a way that it ended up causing more problems. Supposedly this was because Lake “only wants a scenario where she can control the dialogue ” and is “only interested in creating a spectacle”. Which is true enough. Of course the spectacle was where Hobbs torpedoed the debate and made herself look like a chicken. On the other side of the country, Democrat John Fetterman is running as the Democrat for Pennsylvania’s open US Senate seat against Mehmet “Dr.” Oz. Fetterman had a stroke just as he was getting confirmed as his party’s nominee, and had been doing pretty well in the polls even though he refused to do direct interviews or public appearances, citing his need to recover. But then he had to do the late-campaign debate with Oz, and predictably did very badly. (It was noted at the event that Fetterman had to watch closed captioning panels because he still has problems processing what he hears, which made it that much harder to respond in conversational real time.) Now, it may be true that Fetterman will end up recovering fully while Oz will always be an entitled jerk, but his performance still might have had a negative impact on people who hadn’t already made up their minds. Why did Fetterman keep to his schedule when he would have had an excuse not to? Because if he’d refused to debate, he would’ve looked like a chicken. As it is, he looks unfit. And thus two races that had been going pretty good for Democrats are in real danger of going the other way, because the candidates could not or would not perform to the dictates of the press.

Why? Because getting a bunch of career politicians and functionaries to keep running the government the establishment way is boring and bad for ratings. Stuffing a bunch of baboons into business suits and telling them to rewrite the Constitution is funny and great for ratings.

But that would be if the Democrats lose, as if they need any help. The real punch line would be if the Republicans aren’t as popular as they appear and don’t perform as well as the press expects (see below) and the Trumpniks, as they did in 2020, play on this to say everybody expected them to win and therefore an inconvenient result means the whole thing was “rigged” and “stolen.” And who else do you think they’re going to blame?

You would think that these guys learned their lesson by foisting a “reality” TV celebrity who then turned around and sued the press for telling the truth about him, but apparently not.

Nobody likes either of these parties.

But this election, based on all the information I can trust, really is close.

I went to a Walmart the other day and the friggin’ mens’ underwear was locked in a glass cabinet so you had to flag down an employee to get it. I went to their cereal aisle and the prices were almost a dollar higher than they were the last time I was there. Republicans’ anti-Democrat commercials keep hammering inflation and crime, and what am I dealing with when I want to shop in my neighborhood? Inflation and crime.

None of which means that Republicans have any better idea how to deal with these things, but all they have to do is keep hammering on the side that’s in charge and hope voters don’t have a memory span longer than two years.

And it goes to display our civic illiteracy and lack of long-term analysis that nobody considers that when you lose representative government, the economy gets worse in the long run because there is no way to correct a bad government’s bad decisions. Just look at Vladimir “Let’s Have A War” Putin. Or China under Xi Jinping, whose economy is becoming more brittle even as The Leader consolidates more power.

But the apparent weakness of the Democrats in the stretch belies the point that again, in midterm elections with an unpopular president, that president’s party usually does that much worse. And if Republicans are that popular and Democrats are that bad, you would think that their lead in “tight” states would be that much more clear. If Republicans really are a party of brain-dead theocrats, why aren’t Democrats running away with this? And if Democrats are a bunch of woke Commies and everybody hates the economy, why aren’t Republicans running away with this?

Because the Republicans actually ARE a brain-dead theocracy. And while the Democrats aren’t really a Communist regime, they haven’t been doing such a great job.

MAYBE, it could be, Americans don’t like either one of these gangs. But one has to win.

And if Democrats are that unpopular and that incompetent, and Democrat early voting turnout is as lackadaisical as it often is (remember, blowing a big lead on paper is what Democrats DO), the main thing that gives me hope is that in the Kansas abortion referendum this summer – where a “Yes” vote technically would have only meant that the state had the option to write greater restrictions on abortion in the future – the main poll prior to the vote had “Yes” leading by 4 points with a 2.8 percent margin of error and the “No” vote ended up winning by almost 60-40.

Because as much cause as voters might have to hate Democrats, I think some of them realize that they can’t take a chance with the Republicans. “What the hell have ya got to lose?” Well, over a million COVID deaths between January 2020 and November 2022, over a third of which were under Trump in one year.

The Future

So given all that, I’ve got no right to make a prediction for what happens in these various elections other than what we already know: If Republicans win their contests they will do all they can to skew state governments to make sure they can throw out any 2024 election results they don’t like. And if they don’t get the results they want they will scream and cry and throw things, try to pull what legal skullduggery they can and ultimately resort to violence, because that’s just what they did after 2020.

Democrats keep wailing that this approach is a threat to “democracy”, but I’m not sure they understand that in an environment where everything is branding, association of democracy with the Democratic Party might not be such a great idea. Think of our system more as “representative government.” Or even “republicanism.” And right now the ostensible Republicans are against that. A republic means you elect the political class, and if your approach is “either we win or there will be blood”, then there’s really not an election now, is there? I know the Right is, or used to be, the side that said, “it’s a republic, not a democracy,” but as I’ve said, these are functionally the same thing. And if there are no independent elections, it’s not even a republic anymore. It’s more like what you have in Communist countries where you have an “election” to give undeserved legitimacy to the regime, but the outcome is never in doubt. I mean back in the days of Reagan or even McCain, Republicans used to be critical of old Communist politicians but apparently not anymore.

Regardless of who ends up winning in your state, this is my advice to any liberals after the election:

Buy guns. Train with guns. And buy lots of ammo.

Because it is very clear now that the Republican state governments and the Alito Supreme Court don’t think we have any human rights other than the right to have guns, and don’t acknowledge any part of the Bill of Rights besides the Second Amendment. And you need to take advantage of that before they get rid of that too. I mean, if they see enough black, female and gay customers come into the gun shops all at once, they might get wise. Although if you have pastel colored hair and a cannabis T-Shirt, you might be able to pass as a Libertarian.

You might think, “oh no, we shouldn’t escalate”, but kids, the Party of Trump has been escalating for the past six years whether you acknowledge it or not, and this is where we are. These people only acknowledge power and force, and you need to get some of your own. Or, you can just keep playing Eloi to their Morlocks until they’ve gobbled the last one of you.

And if you really think the solution to this country’s political violence is more gun control – meaning, more control of the individual by a government that you are rapidly losing control over – first acknowledge that you’re not going to get more federal gun control as long as the entire Republican Party and several senior Democrats are against it. But you know what will change their minds?

All you need to do is have one hundred big Black men in BLM T-Shirts, flanked by an honor guard of twenty drag queens, marching down the streets of Washington DC all strapped with AK-47s and AR-15s. When they see that on Fox News, the Republicans will all change their minds on gun control right quick. They will change their minds like Saul on the road to Damascus, PRAISE Jesus.

There’s No Gettin’ Back To Good

And everyone here hates everyone here for doin’ just like they do

And it’s best that we all keep it quiet instead

-Matchbox 20, “Back To Good”

“New Rule: …if you believe that the world is going to end, then you don’t get to vote on next year’s budget, BECAUSE IT DOESN’T CONCERN YOU.”

-Bill Maher, Oct. 11, 2013

The early mail-in ballots for Nevada elections came in this week. And if Republicans take over at least one house of Congress, as seems likely, they’re going to do that much more to wreck this lousy economy than they already have, in order to blame a Demonrat Party that is still nominally in charge as long as Biden and Harris are still in the White House. And if they win certain state governments, they will have charge of who certifies elections. And that will make it that much more likely that they will be able to reinstall their boss, Donald Trump, meaning, Vladimir Putin, in order to turn the United States back into Russian North America, and make it that much harder for Ukraine, and thus Europe, to resist Putin’s expansion.

I was trying to find this article I read in Politico or some place, where somebody mentioned the experience of trying to talk to their Trumpnik relative and being told “I don’t care” about all the stuff one could say for the Democrats or against Trump.

Trumpniks, what you all haven’t figured out is that I don’t care if you don’t care. If nothing will persuade you, I’m not going to try. I’ve written you off.

Don’t try to tell me I don’t know where you’re coming from. I mean, I AM you. I am a cis het white guy. I actually do ask myself, “When did Motley Crue become classic rock?” I have no idea why everybody became transgender and vegan all of a sudden. And while I wasn’t old enough to vote for Reagan, I was old enough to remember when the Republicans really seemed to know what was going on and how to run the country, while Democrats were completely clueless. And I’ve said, in my posts about the Trump Organization, that as long as Trump superficially held to the fiscal conservative policies of earlier Republicans, the economy was good, at least for certain people, and I can certainly understand how those people could support Trump as long as their ox wasn’t gored.

But then coronavirus happened, and Trump and his Republican governors wanted to pretend it didn’t happen. And as a result almost a quarter million Americans died by the time Trump lost his election (News Flash: Trump lost the 2020 election) and over a million have died in total. But don’t worry, it will all work out well, thanks to President Xi.

Needless to say, quite a few Republicans got more than their ox gored, including Herman Cain. Not only that, the low-wage, low-demand economy that the conservative business class had been leaning on was at least temporarily wrecked because the virus threatened those service industries whose employees couldn’t just sign in at a workstation from home. You want to know why all those jobs now have to pay more than (oh no) ten dollars an hour, that’s why. Because the Law of Supply and Demand actually works for labor, too.

If you want to know why I, as a member of my demographic, became a race traitor and commit daily blasphemy against Our Lord and Savior, it’s for more reasons than I can really count, but what’s relevant here is however bad you think the economy is now, we aren’t nearly at the point of catastrophe that we were under Trump and his Party of enablers.

Under Trump, Republicans lost the House, then the White House, and eventually the Senate. And a lot of them lost their lives. And the economy, the main thing people give Republicans credit on, was lost too, and there is little objective reason to believe they will do a better job if we let them back in charge. There is in fact every reason to think that in the short term they will make it worse. And whatever you think you’re getting from Trump, you’re really not getting it, unless what you want to get from him is more rage and hatred and justification for those emotions, because those are the only things he really delivers on. In which case, that is the only thing that justifies your loyalty.

Because you are that much more loyal to Trump, who has lost you everything, than you were to prior Republicans under whom you had a good economy and renewed national standing.

Like I said, if the Republican Party was still more benefit than drawback I could understand your rationalization. But this is not the Party of Reagan. This is not like Chik-fil-A, where liberals can go, “Yes, the company is run by a family of homophobic fundamentalists, but I REALLY LOVE THE SANDWICHES!” Your boy is serving chicken vomit sandwiches and shit nuggets, but you’re still lining up around the block.

The other huge reason I oppose the Church of Trump is because I’ve seen this happen before. Bill Clinton, already known to be a pathological liar, ended up committing perjury over Monica Lewinsky. (Liberals would say Ken Starr set up a ‘perjury trap’, I think Bill was just that much more scared of Hillary than everybody else.) So he ended up getting impeached. And the liberal Democrats all went “it’s nothing”, “it doesn’t rise to the level of impeachment”, “it’s a political attempt to thwart the will of the voters”… y’know, all the stuff that the Church is saying to defend their Lord and Savior from crucifixion. Where do you think they learned it? The difference being that Clinton’s perjury, while still perjury, was perjury over an affair, whereas Trump committed obstruction over an attempt to strongarm a head of state who was himself pressured by another head of state (Putin) in order to get dirt on his potential election opponent Joe Biden. The other difference being that however much I hate them, Mr. and Mrs. Clinton were somewhat competent.

So if I hated the Clintons that much, and you want to act like the Clinton Party on steroids, you better believe I’m going to be hating you like I hated them, on steroids.

And when I say I hate you, I don’t mean Trump, I mean you. If you weren’t defending him, Trump would be just another bum at the gas station hollering conspiracy theories at strangers while begging them for change. At least he would have an excuse for that haircut.

The only reason that we haven’t thrown Trump in a cell and thrown the cell away is because the contingent claiming to represent “real America” says he’s their hero. Not Reagan. Not Goldwater. Not even Ted Cruz. Trump.

I’m sure you know that line in social media that Trump has repeated himself: “They’re not after me. They’re after YOU. I’m just in the way.” By the same token, YOU wouldn’t be the issue if you weren’t supporting someone who is so uniquely malignant, and by treating him seriously, giving him power completely out of scale to his merit. Kamala Harris is not going to send the Food Police after you to make sure all your food is vegan and gluten-free. The government does not have the absolute power that you want it to have under Republicans and fear under Democrats, otherwise both Trump and Biden would be able to get away with a lot more than they have. If anyone is after YOU, it is because you’re the only thing keeping this colon cancer of a politician viable. He’s not “in the way”, YOU are. That’s how he likes it, because that is what sniveling cowards do: Shove their flunkies in the way so they take the hits instead.

Look, nobody HAS to do anything. In life, the only thing one HAS to do is die. You don’t serve Trump because you have to, you do it because you WANT to. Because he’s what you wish you could be but can’t. After all, you’re Good Christians. (TM)

And that seems to be what it comes down to. Because no way can you justify this anti-sense unless you believe that the world of cause and effect is secondary to a world that we can’t prove but we’re supposed to take on faith.

For example, the Georgia US Senate election, which pits Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock, an actual black Christian minister, against Herschel Walker, whom the Republicans nominated mainly because he is black. And an acolyte of Trump. And being an acolyte of Trump, it is probably not a surprise that at a critical moment in the campaign, Walker got accused of paying for a girlfriend’s abortion even as he now opposes abortion in most or all circumstances. And yet the Church embraces him that much more strongly as if his martyr status made him that much more a Christian than the incumbent Senator who is an actual Reverend.

It’s of a piece with their attitude towards the Clintons and Hunter Biden, whom they abominate even as their Leader does all the nasty shit they did and worse. If you’re going to ban abortion, yet your lawmakers have abortions, and you’re going to demand consequences for corruption, yet the people demanding prosecution are even more corrupt than the people they’re accusing, clearly you’re not focused on the sin, but the sinner. You don’t care that the people you’re replacing are even more evil than the ones they replace. You just want your team in charge.

I had seen some talking head recently say that Walker’s position on abortion might actually help him with some voters, because a large plurality of Republicans are actually pro-choice personally. They see this as much the same thing as their own position, endorsing a “pro-life” stand in public while doing what you want in private.

But then anybody with enough fame, money and influence has always been able to get past the law. Trump certainly teaches that, and so do people like Herschel Walker. And if a Republican politician is a hypocrite on moral issues, that is hardly a shock anymore. It may actually be a membership requirement. What is relevant is the practical consequence of electing such people. Herschel Walker is expecting, as a man and as a Christian, to be forgiven for something that was not illegal at the time he did it, but he is asking voters to elect him to a position where he will support laws that will criminalize women for doing the same thing he did, and in that scheme Christian forgiveness will be irrelevant. The fact that he doesn’t believe in saving poor, innocent unborn life any more than Trump does is irrelevant, because those women do not have the fame, money and influence that he does to get away with what he did. In any case the cult is sending a message to the entire rest of the country who are not in the Church of Trump: “Rules are written to control you other people. Rules never apply to US.”

There is no better word for that position than injustice.

I’ve often talked about Rod Dreher, the columnist and author who is nominally a Christian apologist but often seems more motivated to deliver apologia for this “post-liberal” “traditional conservative” mindset. He is probably most famous for writing a book called The Benedict Option, inspired by Benedict of Nursia, the monk who first developed the Benedictine Rule. Dreher’s thesis was that the world of secularism is now sufficiently omnipresent that the Christian community will not be able to prevail in what liberalism calls the marketplace of ideas, so the solution, at least until the worldly culture burns itself out, is not to compete with it but to withdraw and find or create committed spiritual communities. Historically, Benedict was born just after the end of the Roman Empire in the West; by that time Western Europe had been Christian for at least a century but the temporal authority behind the Church was gone.

But then Benedict was experiencing the end of a world, not necessarily THE world. Christians have gone through “the end of the world” several times, and yet, it never actually ends. And believe it or not, Christianity hasn’t ended either. It changes like the rest of the culture, but there have been two main apostolic church organizations since at least the Middle Ages, there have been numerous Protestant churches since the Middle Ages, and yet Catholicism and Orthodoxy still exist.

In the Wikipedia entry on The Benedict Option, the book’s title is an allusion to a quote by philosopher Alasdair McIntyre: “If the tradition of the virtues was able to survive the horrors of the last dark ages, we are not entirely without hope … We are waiting not for a Godot, but for another—doubtless very different—St. Benedict.” But McIntyre later spoke out regarding the book saying that Dreher had misinterpreted his meaning as advocacy for traditional conservatism while his own “virtue ethics” are neither liberal nor conservative. “This is not a withdrawal from society into isolation of a certain sort; this is actually the creation of a new set of social institutions that then proceed to evolve…So, when I said we need a new St. Benedict, I was suggesting we need a new kind of engagement with the social order, not any kind of withdrawal from it.” In practice, Dreher would seem to agree, as more recently he had been given a paid fellowship in Hungary by the government of strongman Viktor Orban. “Orbán was so unafraid, so unapologetic about using his political power to push back on the liberal élites in business and media and culture,” Dreher told The New Yorker‘s Andrew Marantz in 2022. “It was so inspiring: this is what a vigorous conservative government can do if it’s serious about stemming this horrible global tide of wokeness.” Dreher also argued that the U.S. Republican Party needs “a leader with Orbán’s vision—someone who can build on what Trumpism accomplished, without the egomania and inattention to policy, and who is not afraid to step on the liberals’ toes.” And while professing to be appalled by Trump, he was so much more appalled by the Left’s response to the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court that he sided with Kavanaugh: “I do not understand why the loutish drunken behavior of a 17 year old high school boy has anything to tell us about the character of a 53 year old judge.” (Because, as the experience of Trump should educate us, it doesn’t matter what calendar age a man is if he continues to act like a 17 year old lout.)

If Dreher were serious about his thesis, he wouldn’t have counseled a Benedict Option, he would have counseled a John of the Apocalypse option. John, of course, was the mysterious writer of the Book of Revelations who is also thought to be the author of the fourth Gospel. Revelations, cutting out all the mystical allegory, is really about the message that we don’t know when the Day of Judgment will be and we have to act as though it’s today, because some day, it will be.

The cult doesn’t believe in the Kingdom of God. They believe in what Christ called “the world.”
And why shouldn’t they? In Matthew 6, Christ also says ““Therefore I tell you, do not be anxious about your life, what you will eat or what you will drink, nor about your body, what you will put on. Is not life more than food, and the body more than clothing? Look at the birds of the air: they neither sow nor reap nor gather into barns, and yet your heavenly Father feeds them. Are you not of more value than they? And which of you by being anxious can add a single hour to his span of life? And why are you anxious about clothing? Consider the lilies of the field, how they grow: they neither toil nor spin, yet I tell you, even Solomon in all his glory was not arrayed like one of these. “

Have you ever tried to get your daily bread by just praying for it and hoping God would provide? I do NOT recommend it.

All the real accomplishments of Christianity – the Byzantine Empire, the monasteries and universities, the Puritan settlements, global evangelism – were because Christians rolled up their sleeves and did the hard work to make things happen in this world before they could focus on the next one.

But then I follow another book of Scripture: Atlas Shrugged. And in the later acts of that novel, Ayn Rand has John Galt use his weird science to commandeer the national airwaves to give a marathon speech explaining Objectivist philosophy, and at one point he tells the audience:

“Do not remind me that (my position) pertains only to this life on earth. I am concerned with no other. Neither are you. “

I mean, if your religion tells you to focus on the world to come, why are you so obsessed with controlling this one? If the afterlife is better, why do you cling to this one so desperately? Because, frankly, y’all don’t believe in this stuff any more than I do. You can’t be surprised that I, and increasing numbers of other Americans, don’t believe in religion when clearly you don’t.

Religion might teach some positive virtues, like forgiveness, charity, and dis-attachment from a temporal universe that we are going to leave quickly enough anyway, but taking it literally is potentially deadly. And I am starting to think that anybody who still has a working brain but does take religion literally is just trying to sell something to people more gullible than they are.

As I’ve said, the irony of the Electoral College in practice is that it was intended to act as a screening mechanism against an angry mob being gulled by a demagogue and “creature of foreign powers”, yet the only reason that result actually occurred is because we had certain states swing the EC for Trump. And of course the priests of Trump in the US Congress who wailed that impeaching him would be “thwarting the will of the people” had to eat their words when Trump lost even with the Electoral College, and to defy it, he resorted to a gullible angry mob.

This is why the Church is so (ahem) hellbent about controlling those state governments and election systems, in order to control the Electoral College, and why they are so fanatic about the shahada that “Trump didn’t lose, and Biden isn’t the real President.” This despite the fact that most of them are willing to say their OWN elections were perfectly lawful, because the Electoral College had nothing to do with them. And if they still lose an election, all they have to do is say they won! “I’ll accept the results, cause I’m gonna win.” “What if you lose?” “I’M GONNA WIN!!!” Well, that’s a great way to solve all your problems. I mean, I’m a Las Vegas Raiders fan, that would make things so much easier! We’re going to the Super Bowl!!! What do you mean we’re not 15-1? What do you mean Tom Brady is still the winning quarterback! Fake news! I roll to disbelieve! Save versus illusion!!

It’s amazing how much stuff in life we do not assume we can resolve with fantasy and wishes, yet something trivial like who’s going to run the country is a case of “you create your own reality.” This despite the fact that politics is the exact opposite of living in your own subjective world. This is why we need laws. But laws are what the Church of Trump want to destroy.

The problem with throwing out the rule of law is that you have to resort to having the biggest gang, and the whole reason Trumpniks are so existentially afraid is the fact that they are not the biggest gang. Even when their Messiah was in the White House, he had done so much to alienate the military brass that they were starting to pull back from being involved in his various political stunts.

Which means that while the cult doesn’t want the rule of law, it really doesn’t want rule by brute force either, cause they ultimately don’t have it. What do they want, then? What they really want is a “civilized” population that can be bullied and cowed into doing what they say, because then you have all the advantages of arbitrary brute force without the danger of confronting a larger enemy.

I again refer to the great quote by Robert E. Howard: “Civilized men are more discourteous than savages because they know they can be impolite without having their skulls split, as a general thing.”

The villain is actually better protected under the rule of law than under chaos, because he has a right to an unpopular opinion. If you want to throw out the rule of law and rule by the Law of the Jungle, you better be able to back it up.

Again, the Ukraine situation is a good analogy here. Czar Vladimir I clearly does not believe that Ukraine deserves to exist as an independent nation and probably doesn’t think Ukrainians deserve to exist as a people. And he was proving it by biting off little bits of the country, one by one. And because Russia was (perceived as being) such a large and powerful country, Ukraine, and the West, had no choice but to accede. But then for whatever reason escapes me, Vlad decided that wasn’t enough, and decided to “de-Nazify” Ukraine by sending his army to conquer the nation so his secret police could liquidate the Jewish head of state. And at that point, Ukraine started fighting back because Putin was clearly aiming to destroy Ukraine as a country. And when they did, the big, bad Russian military was revealed as being not up to snuff. And the result of that is that Putin Russia has become the junior partner to China in the We Hate America coalition, and even Russia’s satraps in far-off places like Azerbaijan are losing stability, because their patron is no longer able to back them up.

And again: All it took was fighting back. But when did Ukraine start fighting back? When it became clear that any further concessions would only be annihilation. When there was nothing to save by NOT fighting back.

While you pay your worship to Donald Trump, your true spiritual model is Vladimir Putin. And like Putin, you keep pushing and pushing and pushing, but it was Putin who ended up getting backed into a corner. Now the civilized world is trying to find some way to return to peace and normalcy while at the same time knowing that Putin has given up on being a civilized human being who can be trusted to co-exist with others.

The same situation is going to happen with you people in America, because you will not peacefully co-exist with others, and while the political system will help you win elections, it will not give you a mandate, much less a majority. And as with Ukraine, we can only hope the denouement does not involve nukes.

And it’s over now

And I don’t know how

Guess it’s over now

There’s no gettin’ back to good

A Yankee Doodle Dandy In A Gold Rolls-Royce

Next month in November, it’s another election, which may actually be important in that the midterms and the 2024 presidential race will determine whether our votes will ever matter again.

To skip, there is no point in me going over the partisan races (Republican vs. Democrat) because I’m voting Democrat in all of them. This is not because I went whole hog liberal Democratic partisan, it’s because I am a single issue voter. Some people’s single issue is abortion (on one side or the other). Some people’s single issue is more gun control. My single issue is: FUCK TRUMP and everybody who enables him. Which at this point is the entire Republican Party. Yes, even the reasonable ones. Because at this point, the reasonable ones are just the Republicans who still remember how to play both sides of the street. They hold to reasonable (or at least non-whacko) positions during the general election and then as soon as they’re elected they goosestep in line with the whackjobs because once they’re in office their loyalty is to the whackjobs who own the Party, not the general public.

And I can hear the cult chanting now: “Trump Derangement Syndrome.” Let’s go back over definitions: Bush Derangement Syndrome was when liberals only believed the worst about George W. Bush. Obama Derangement Syndrome was when conservatives only believed the worst about Barack Obama. Trump Derangement Syndrome is when anybody believes anything that sack of shit says.

It should be obvious, just from looking back at the Helsinki press conference with Putin, that Trump has given more aid and comfort to the enemy than Jane Fonda ever did. If you still can’t figure out why, just read THIS, and then READ IT AGAIN, and keep reading it until you get it.

You want to know why I’m against that? Look at Russia and what that “post-liberal” agenda has done to that country. To its pride. To its military readiness against its neighbors. To its peoples’ survival.

That’s why.

And Putin, unlike Trump, is not a titanium hammerhead who has to stare at the can of orange juice for five minutes cause it says “CONCENTRATE”.

Even without Trump, these “conservatives”, and the Alito Supreme Court, are on track to create a legal system that would make the Islamic Republic of Iran look as libertarian as Burning Man.

So if that’s what you “patriots” want to turn MY country into, why don’t you just move to Asia and get a job doing this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8TmGE_6rbA

Right now, I have only one position in any partisan race. That position is:
FUCK.

TRUMP.

UP.

THE.

ASS.

Now to the ballot initiatives for Nevada, and this election there only seem to be three of them.

Question 1 is an initiative to ban all discrimination “on account of race, color, creed, sex, sexual orientation, gender identity or expression, age, disability, ancestry or national origin.”

While equal rights amendments are part of some other state constitutions, they normally haven’t included sexual orientation or gender identity. In principle, I have no problem with doing this. In practice, the definitions of non-standard gender identity are still sufficiently vague that I wonder what protections would mean and how they would be implemented. In its ballot initiative analysis, Reason Magazine stated: “A more fundamental question surrounding the proclaimed need for an equal rights amendment is whether the protections they would offer are already accomplished by the Equal Protection Clause within the Fourteenth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. Adopted following the American Civil War, the Fourteenth Amendment states, in part: “No state shall…deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.”

Yes, but as we’ve seen, the Supreme Court can look at the Fourteenth Amendment Equal Protection Clause and decide it doesn’t apply if they don’t feel like it.

Accordingly, even with my reservations, I support YES on Question 1.

Question 2 is an initiative to raise Nevada’s state minimum wage to $12 an hour. I have already stated my position on this issue: All minimum wage means is, if it were legal for the company to pay you less than that, they would. Because the cost of training your replacement would be worth that much to the company, or less. Especially since COVID, the demand for jobs has gotten to the point where gas stations and other shit jobs will actually pay more than $12 starting out now. Meanwhile the federal minimum wage is still $7.25 an hour, but then Congress is run by Southern “conservatives” who are that much more stingy than heartless capitalists. Believe it or not, the marketplace does correct itself, and often it does a better job than government. (Again, I’m not a liberal, I’m a Democrat Just To Fuck Trump.) I support NO on Question 2.

Question 3 concerns whether to convert Nevada to an “open primary” state. I have also already stated my opinion in favor of this initiative.

In theory, the two-party system could correct itself with one of the current “third” parties taking over for the weaker of the two ruling factions, as the Republicans ended up replacing the Whigs. But the duopoly has calcified even as it gets worse. Few people who still are partisans see any need to try alternatives to their registered party. With Democrats, they think any “third” party candidates are spoilers who are just going to increase the chances of a Republican getting elected, and Republicans are all theocratic fascists. Of course, that’s what they’ve been saying since at least 1964, but as of 2015, they’re actually correct. Meanwhile Republicans won’t consider any alternatives to their party because they think politics is a spiritual battle of Good vs. Evil, and the Democrat Party are all gay Muslim Communists who hate the Little Baby Jesus and want to send him to jail. And by Little Baby Jesus, I mean Trump, cause most of the Republican “base” won’t admit there’s a difference.

The alternative among people who have real lives and don’t think politics is like following House of the Dragon (except less plausibly scripted) is to quit being partisan. This really means that those people don’t have a vote in party primaries, which in many places is the real vote. Which makes the public at large that much more alienated from politics in general and reduces the voter pool to make it even more devoted to ideologues. To many in the duopoly, that is a feature and not a bug.

Remember, the whole premise of America’s party system, and the perceived need of the duopoly to limit competition as much as possible, was to serve as gatekeepers, to make sure that political movements were still capable of moderation and compromise and did not allow radical ideas to become part of mainstream political thought. But in our civics illiteracy, we lost sight of that and confused the mechanism for the goal. Now in at least one case the party institution is itself the vehicle for radical, un-American ideas. Ideas like, “democracy’ just means we impose our will on everybody else and if we can’t win an election with a minority of voters, it just means we didn’t use enough fraud and force.”

An open primary system would remove this emphasis which in turn would mean less focus on a politician’s brand identity.

Because no matter what I said earlier about voting down the line for Democrats, it may not matter cause gas prices are skyrocketing – for SOME reason – hurricane season is screwing the infrastructure network and Democratic candidates are in increased trouble. Adam Laxalt is totally on board with a nationwide ban on abortion, and he’s leading Catherine Cortez Masto in the Nevada US Senate race. In Georgia, Senator Raphael Warnock is up against Herschel Walker, who is basically Trump, only more belligerent and inarticulate, and there’s at least an even chance that Walker could win.

Further proof that we could present objective evidence that electing Republicans would send this country to literal Hell (or, in 2020, COVID Hell), and Americans would look at Hell, then look at the Democrats, and say, “Fuck it, let’s see what Hell is like.”

Changing states to open primary would be one way out of this trap. You are still going to have people running as Democrats and Republicans, but the channelling mechanism would be who among the general population gets the most voters, not who can win the party primary by being the most mindless political robot. That in turn would mean politics is less dictated by issues where no one will agree (like abortion) and more in terms of which individuals would do the best job running the government.

What a concept.

I support YES on Question 3.

A Tale of Two Fascists

The most maddening bit about The Church of Trump’s main article of faith, that their Lord and Savior didn’t lose an election fair and square and Joe Biden is not the legitimate president, is that by the time they will be in position to do anything about it, Joe Biden’s first term will be over. But that doesn’t change the fact that Trumpniks who deny the 2020 election are running in crucial states and if they take over state legislatures or Secretary of State positions, they may be in position to just throw out any election results they don’t like for the presidential race in 2024. And at the rate things are going, Trump IS going to be the Republican presidential nominee. I mean, guys like Ron DeSantis are certainly in competition to see who can be the most gratuitous dickweed, but Ron still seems to have enough grasp of reality to know how many fingers he has on his hands. That’s a liability with his voter base. No, Republicans want somebody who’s just as whiny, stupid and delusional as they are, and no one fills that role like Trump. Nothing will stop Trump. Why? How can he get impeached, TWICE, and not be convicted? Why can he commit crimes that anybody else would have gotten arrested for years ago and nothing happens to him? How can he survive into his mid-70s exercising as little as possible and eating food that would have given anybody else heart disease and Type II diabetes?

Why? Because God is real, and He hates us all. That’s why.

Still, it seems that even a Supreme Being can only do so much to cover for His Divine Instrument’s cosmic-level incompetence and stupidity.

Up to this point, Trump’s biggest liability was the Department of Justice investigation of his resort at Mar-a-Lago – or as Michael Cohen calls it, Mar-a-Lardo – where they found out the estate still held documents after Trump’s attorney said they’d turned over all the documents he had. But in his appeals through the judicial system, Trump managed to get his case to Southern District of Florida Judge Aileen Cannon, a Trump appointee who’d only been confirmed by the Senate after the 2020 election. She decided to grant the Trump legal team’s request to appoint a special master to review which documents the government had a right to, in the process completely blocking the DOJ use of the materials. This was a decision so obviously biased and lacking in grounding that Trump’s own Attorney General Bill Barr said it was “deeply flawed in a number of ways.” (Barr being the main expert opinion on twisting the law to make sure Donald Trump is immune to it.)

But the Department of Justice decided to humor the charade for a bit and acceded to one of the proposed choices for special master, Raymond Dearie, a Reagan-appointed judge who is currently serving in the District Court for the Eastern District of New York. And on Tuesday September 20, things didn’t start off well for Trump when the lawyers came to see Dearie in New York and based their case on the idea that they don’t HAVE to tell him, the special master, which documents Trump has a right to and which he does not, which documents are declassified and which are not. Now, if one takes the premise of a special master seriously, the officer would have cause to separate out documents which are attorney-client communications, personal messages, things of that nature. If you are to have a special master, he must be able to make the distinction. But Trump’s team refused to cooperate. There is of course a reason for this, one that the attorneys may have deduced only after taking the case. If they assert that documents have not been declassified, they have no case because the government has ownership. If they assert the documents have been declassified by Trump, then he retroactively did so after leaving office (i.e., he did not declassify anything) and he admits to holding sensitive documents which remain government property whether they are declassified or not. Ergo, the Trump lawyers must present the documents as being in this eternally nebulous state where their legal status must be undetermined but in effect favoring Trump’s case. As some of us called it, “Schrodinger’s Legal Defense.”

Dearie seemed to perceive this right off the bat, because again, the matter in question is, one, why does the former President have possession of documents that he has no legal right to hold? And two, why does the classification status matter if these are still government documents?


“The judge, a veteran of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court, expressed puzzlement about what his role would be if the government says certain documents are classified and Trump’s side disagrees but doesn’t offer proof to challenge that.

”What am I looking for?….As far as I am concerned, that’s the end of it,” Dearie said. “What business is it of the court?”

James Trusty, one of Trump’s attorneys, called it “premature” for Dearie to consider that issue right now. “It’s going a little beyond what Judge Cannon contemplated in the first instance,” he said.

In one of several moments of palpable tension with the Trump team, Dearie replied: “I was taken aback by your comment that I’m going beyond what Judge Cannon instructed me to do. … I think I’m doing what I’m told.”

In other words, our boss has a pet judge, and she appointed you, so that makes you our pet judge, too.

That’s a great legal strategy, isn’t it? I wonder if they teach that in law school? Maybe David E. Kelley would come up with that, but he writes legal comedies. Even Denny Crane would think that was cuckoo.

And then this week, New York’s Attorney General Leticia James announced a lawsuit over Donald Trump and the Trump Organization misrepresenting their assets by billions of dollars, and seeking $250 million in damages. Assuming he’s good for it.

And, on the same day (Wednesday) the DOJ’s appeal to the 11th Circuit was reviewed by 3 of the 11 judges, and that panel determined to remove the restriction against the government review of Trump’s documents. “The court also pointedly noted that Trump had presented no evidence that he had declassified the sensitive records, as he has repeatedly maintained, and rejected the possibility that Trump could have an “individual interest in or need for” the roughly 100 documents marked as classified.” (Y’know, other than ‘MineMineMineMineMINE!!!!’)

Contrary to Trump’s publicly stated opinion to Sean Hannity that he can declassify documents “by thinking about it”, The Son of Man cannot just wave his hand over documents like a priest consecrating the Host and decree, “I declassify thee, this stuff is mine now.” And even if he could, the government has stated, repeatedly, that classification status has no bearing on the government’s ownership and does not answer the question of why Trump has more right to the documents than they do.

Trump might have gotten his pet judge to stymie the DOJ’s investigation of him, but he forgot that the DOJ aren’t the only people investigating him, and there are multiple levels of the legal system that prosecution can appeal to just as well as he can. He’s not behind a shield, he’s behind a very leaky dike, and he doesn’t have enough fingers to plug it. Besides, those fingers are pretty stubby.

The other issue is that Trump simply CANNOT tell the truth. The truth is not in him. He fears the truth like Dracula fears the cross. Even when a truthful presentation would serve him better than lying, he has to lie. At the very least he has to spin some big-fish story that gets further and further out of control.

Like, if someone accuses him of rape, Trump could just look up where the crime was supposed to have occurred, trace his whereabouts, create an alibi for what he was doing, get someone to corroborate that, and that would be the defense. But more likely, Trump would say something like, “I NEVER touched that woman, and this is why. Because I have NEVER had sex. Everyone knows this. Never. Like, you know all those kids I got? How many kids do I have now, five? Four? I got four kids. So yeah, I got four kids. And they are all immaculate conceptions. Believe me. That I can tell you. Like, with Melania, one afternoon, Melania was in her bedroom, and suddenly, a ray of light came through the window, and The Angel of The Lord appeared to her in his glory, and he says to Melania, ‘hey, congratulations, yer knocked up.”

I had once made a comparison of the Trump movement to The Picture of Dorian Gray, except I said that the man was to his cult what Dorian Gray was to his portrait. Trump could move from scandal to scandal and remain unmarred, but the Republican Party became that much more visibly decayed and corrupt the more it assumed his spirit and the more it covered for his evil. Which may be why some Republicans in the 2022 midterms are starting to think it may not be such a good idea to campaign with Trump. I mean, why should they, if he’s going to give a “support” speech and make it all about him while humiliating them in the process?

But it occurs to me that the Dorian Gray analogy might apply in a different way. There is of course another strongman who has possibly had more malicious impact on the world than Donald Trump and been subject to even less legal challenge or restriction. That would be Vladimir Putin, the Russian Federation’s apparent president for life.

It may take quite some time and retrospective historical analysis to truly assess how much damage Putin has done to the world, but we’re learning more and more. It was recently revealed that Russian “troll factories” united to undermine the 2017 Women’s March campaign immediately after Trump was inaugurated president, by targeting the controversial Linda Sarsour. (I am NOT a fan of Sarsour’s politics, but she wasn’t the only person involved in the March, and that movement was not invalidated simply because she was involved.)

As in the Trump campaign, Putin’s Russia directly and indirectly aided “countercultural” political efforts in several other countries, including support for Serbia’s President Aleksandr Vucic, and Marie Le Pen in France. The most famous of these mini-Vlads is the Hungarian President Viktor Orban, even if he started being less overtly supportive of Russia in the wake of the Ukraine invasion. These declared heirs to conservatism (and media supporters like Tucker Carlson) say they are advocates of a “post-liberal” world order; post-liberal, like postmodernism, meaning a philosophy of cutesy sophistry and bad taste. I have gone over the connections between Putin and the Trump Organization to such extent that I don’t need to elaborate again.

We can speculate all day as to what Putin has “got” on Trump, but it’s not like he needs anything. The Occam’s Razor explanation for Trump’s slavish loyalty to Daddy Vlad is (I think) that Putin is to Trump what Trump is to the fan club that used to be a serious American political party. Those guys see their Leader acting like an inflamed asshole and making everything around him worse and suffering absolutely no repercussions, and think they should be able to do that too. To Republicans, Trump is the role model, and to Trump, Putin is the role model. He’s what Trump wants to be when he grows up and becomes a real dictator. Of course it seems to surprise Trump (and his fan club) when he actually does suffer consequences for his actions, and it seems to be a new experience for Putin, too.

Up to a point, Putin had had the world over a barrel (so to speak) because he was grinding down the resistance to his Ukraine invasion and is in position to cut off fuel and heating oil supplies to Europe when this year’s winter is expected to be especially bitter. He had reason to believe that if he just kept going as he was he could wear down European Union resistance to his military campaign and make the West go along with his land grab, even knowing it will just encourage him to consolidate and take more people’s territory later.

Of course he could not keep going as he was. In a military offensive that will itself be the subject of later history (and that I have some ideas about that I want to explore at a later time), Ukraine’s military attacked at several points along the fronts with Russia. Telegraphing an intent to retake the southern city of Kherson, they apparently got Russia to concentrate its best forces there while the main offensive went due north east of Kharkiv city, taking key cities and eventually rolling up most of Kharkiv Oblast up to the pre-war Russian border, recapturing almost 2500 square kilometers in less than two weeks.

This was such a clusterfuck for the Russian side that even Russian state media hosts on the Fox News-style debate shows had to admit they were losing. It was that much harder to deny, given how much intact equipment Ukraine captured after Russian soldiers cut and ran.

This all makes Putin seem a little less threatening. He has exactly three tools against Ukraine and the West: nukes (a bluff he can only call once), the military, and fuel exports, and now that his military has proven to be that much more hollow than we thought, the West has a lot less reason to fear long-term fuel boycotts, because there’s less reason to think Putin can win this thing.

So this Wednesday Daddy Vlad had his personal parliament pass new legislation not only authorizing a limited mobilization of Russia but increasing the penalties for avoiding service. Supposedly the reserve pool is 300,000, consisting of those who already have military experience, but that pool includes both sexes up to an age of 60. It remains to be seen how well Russia will meet its new recruitment goals, but the announcement did great business for Russian airlines. So great in fact, that Russian airlines are now prohibited from selling tickets to men between ages 18 and 65. Like apparently the country is in that much danger of running out!

Not like increasing the draft pool will even work in military or strategic terms, precisely because the problem with Russian military performance was that the government couldn’t properly train and equip the people it had (especially pilots, with the Russian Air Force nearly missing in action the whole war). It’s going to be that much harder for Putin to equip the new people now. BECAUSE Ukraine captured so much of his stuff.

Like I said, Vladimir Putin, President for Life. Let’s see how long that is.

Dorian Gray was apparently immortal as long as he kept his portrait, but when he destroyed it, he suddenly died. Once the false appearance of perfection was destroyed, reality reasserted itself. It may simply be coincidence, or just irony, but as Putin weakens himself with his irrational mistakes, the “post-liberal” proteges he has done so much to help are weakening too.

For instance, one of Putin’s other supplicants, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, is in danger of losing re-election. Bolsonaro is the guy for conservatives who think “I like Trump, but he’s not macho and stupid enough.” His leftist opponent is Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva, formerly the biggest politician in the country. He is a popular, populist leader with his own personality cult who got convicted several years ago on money laundering charges and later had his charges and conviction reversed on grounds of bias and improper prosecution. Basically, this guy actually IS what Republicans have accused Democrats of being for years. Even so, while Bolsonaro’s polling is picking up, Lula is still almost 10 points ahead. Why? Maybe because Bolsonaro was just as lackadaisical about coronavirus in Brazil as the Trump Organization was in the US. Or maybe because Bolsonaro is that much more corrupt than Lula.

And who would’ve thought, all it took was fighting back. Having a military that resists naked aggression. Having a legal system that asserts a universal standard of law. And having citizens who vote against parties that are destructive and unpopular.

If Ukrainians can go to war and get shot at to stop fascism, the least you can do is come out and vote.